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First Hill Capital
1.2K posts
First Hill Capital
@FirstHillcap
Sharing a few actionable ideas a year. Small cap tech, monopolies, finance, semicap
شامل ہوئے Temmuz 2022
385 فالونگ1.6K فالوورز
@_nonfigurativ_ you can only buy used arms and get insane prices
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Snagged this one from a local welding company at a crazy price point
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True. Spend 8-10 hours in the office “busy” and you’ve expended your neurons for the day
Mikli@CryptoMikli
Togi explains why most people are not THINKING at all during the day “The most beneficial thing for my life and career was thinking for 20 minutes a day. If you really break it down, a lot of people think for 0 minutes per day. You wake up, start scrolling, respond to texts, hang out with friends, go to the gym, go to school, go back home, scroll again, and go to sleep” “Another interesting thing is that your brain goes into a flow state about five seconds before you doze off to sleep. So one thing I do is keep my notes ready next to me. When you’re about to fall asleep, you often get a really good idea, but you forget it by the next day. I wake up, write it down, and go back to sleep. I probably wake up five or six times before I actually fall asleep”
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@lingams @JapanDeepValue1 They pulled forward a bunch of orders for RSPDH (new auto optical business) in Q4 so it looks a bit better than it actually is.
I'd say the most promising is Vanadium redox batteries if it works.
Not the best businesses but I think margins will improve on average
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@FirstHillcap @JapanDeepValue1 What is your thought on the Equipment and materials segment, which is growing fast but at 5% operating margin. They are also starting a new line of business optical modules and solar. Are these good business areas.
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@kjnkjp how did you get to 2x EV / EBIT? Is this exluding prime wafer numbers?
Not sure how to get EV to without Gritek. I guess I can get more info when 25 annual report comes out
Kenji Nakamura@kjnkjp
RS Tech $3445 owns 40% of Gritek (GRINM). This stake alone matches its own mcap, while RS has 70% of its mcap in net cash. The actual business is valued at 2x EV/EBIT despite commanding the world's top share in reclaimed wafers w/ 40% ebit margin. This part is widely understood.
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Is there any ticker news feeds for small cap that are not filled with AI slop?
Or vibe coded tools?
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getting a bit ridiculous now. I was expecting to be limit down.
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
Israel’s stock exchange is up 8.85% in live markets now. The local index is up 4.23% today as well. It looks absurd as missiles fly toward Israel. However, markets are likely pricing in the perception of a "decisive victory" and long-term risk reduction of Iran.
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Will be breaking this down a bit further.
Because of consolidation I believe the ROE and other metrics are understated for the core business
First Hill Capital@FirstHillcap
@JapanDeepValue1 Also isn’t it depreciation for the whole entity? Even though they subtract out minority interest from the earnings. Plus, reclaim is most of the profit so it’s Shown as depreciated by the prime wafer depreciation?? Or no
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“This conversation will change how you think about your entire career”
You mean the next 1.5 years?
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@WarrenN00458368 Think it’s probably fine. Just gut feel😂
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@FirstHillcap I saw this a few months ago but was worried about IP theft regarding their reclaim segment, also how often do public/private partnerships with government with foreign governments, specifically adversarial ones?
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@JapanDeepValue1 Also isn’t it depreciation for the whole entity? Even though they subtract out minority interest from the earnings.
Plus, reclaim is most of the profit so it’s Shown as depreciated by the prime wafer depreciation?? Or no
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FY2025 depreciation ¥5.5bn vs ¥8.4bn of capex. So in theory you may understate cash generation during capacity build/ramp. Can look at EBITDA/FCF, does not look hidden there but I am no forensic accountant.
And to your other post, yes IFRS consolidated subs is annoying and you end up with all this SOTP discounts.. some have narrowed like Ferrotec. RS Tech still extreme, everyone knows about it and people just don't want to buy the narrative/china risk.
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@FirstHillcap Good call the other day after the earnings dip. I owe you a beer!
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Consolidated financials just make this an absolute mess. Why does Japan do this?
First Hill Capital@FirstHillcap
$3445 stake worth 200B yen
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@JapanDeepValue1 Do you think that the profitability in the reclaim wafer business is masked by depreciation on the balance sheet?
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