Graham Doeren Bracketology

LJ Cason was injured February 27th. The next five games, Michigan averaged a +2.4 point scoring margin. But their post-Cason struggles are over. The Wolverines are +21.2 points per game in the NCAA Tournament.

If I'm an Arizona or Michigan fan, I'm cheering for UConn in the first semifinal. Danny Hurley is as good as it gets in college basketball, but I'd rather trust my bigs vs Tarris Reed than hope Illinois doesn't get hot shooting over me.

@Bengals_Freak @_does_this_work UNC was 1-12 vs Quad 1 last year and made the 68-team field. 2-11 vs Quad 1 is not disqualifying, especially in a 76-team field.

@GrahamDoeren @_does_this_work 2-11 in Q1 and you put them in. This is why metrics suck. You look so stupid when you put them in anyways.

If this season had a 76-team field, Oklahoma, Auburn, Indiana, San Diego St, Virginia Tech, and Oklahoma State were locks. Cal and Arizona State would've likely been the last two teams in.

@TeamUSATracker @nmaurer34 Agreed. In a 76-team field, VCU would've definitely made it this year if they lost the A-10 final whereas in a 68-team field, they were out if they lost the A-10 final. USF would've probably been in if they lost the American final, but it would've been close.

@GrahamDoeren @nmaurer34 Expansion to 76 teams would put a few mid-major regular season champions (VCU, South Florida, Belmont) and in 2025 (UC San Diego, VCU, McNeese) in at-large conversation if they didn't win conference tourney

@Dom_e_c OU, Auburn, Indiana, SDSU, VT & Oklahoma St were all top 55 in both SOR & WAB. They would've been in a 76-team field. Cal & Arizona St get dicey, but with ten Quad 1 wins between them and better SOR and WAB than Seton Hall, Stanford and New Mexico, they probably get in.

I don’t think ASU makes it in a 76. U obv can’t base it 100% off NIT seeding for everything, But we know the 1st four out obv make it being Auburn, Indiana, SDSU, and OU. 7 Teams declined the NIT so we can’t really gage then on the same standard those being Belmont, V Tech, SDSU (alr here), Seton Hall, Indiana (alr here), FSU, OU (alr here). 1 seeds in the NIT were New Mexico, Auburn (alr here), tulsa, and wake forest. Vtech lost to wake in the ACC tournament so with similar metrics wake prolly woulda made it over tham, FSU probably is above wake, Seton hall is probably below FSU and Wake and tech, Belmont probably would be a first 4 out team. Tulsa is below probably all those teams, and NM is a easy in. My guess would be Auburn, SDSU, OU, Indiana, New mexico, FSU, Wake, and then last team in as like VTech, 1st 4 out now being Seton hall, Belmont, Tulsa, and then either of Oklahoma St or Cal

@_does_this_work Literally all eight of those teams had better Strength of Record and WAB rankings than New Mexico. Lobos would have been considered for the field, but they likely would not have made a 76-team field.

@GrahamDoeren Doubt it.

@_does_this_work All 8 of the teams on the graphic had both a better Strength of Record than New Mexico, and a better Wins Above Bubble ranking.

@GrahamDoeren You’re just gonna ignore UNM?

@nmaurer34 New Mexico would have been seriously considered for the field, perhaps the first team out. Belmont would've been close, too.

@GrahamDoeren Would any mid-majors been close?

@LAOJoe Arizona State had six Quad 1 wins and better WAB and Strength of Record than New Mexico. Arizona State would likely be the last team in and New Mexico the first team out.

@GrahamDoeren I think all those but Arizona State get in. New Mexico is last and if USF lost they probably are last instead.

The most insane stat in modern college basketball history: UConn has won 18 straight games in the Final Four, Elite Eight or Sweet 16.

UConn is on the verge of their first Elite Eight loss since George Mason took them out in the same Washington, DC arena in 2006.

@_KnowBuddyCares And the last 8 teams in the Final Four would all be KenPom top 4.

@GrahamDoeren It would also be 7 out of 8 1 seeds to make it to the Final 4 in the last 2 seasons.

If Duke beats UConn, the KenPom top 4 will be your Final Four.

@devilishbronco Kentucky was also 38-0 playing 1 seed Wisconsin. That Kentucky team was THE story of the 2014-15 college basketball season.

@GrahamDoeren If Duke wins, I wouldn’t be shocked. That said, Duke did play at 6:09 against MSU in 2015, so it’s not a guarantee.

Don't be surprised if we get the game of the tournament in Arizona vs Michigan as the 6:09 pm ET Final Four opener. If Duke wins today, CBS may opt for Duke in the primetime 8:49pm ET main event slot vs Illinois due to superior draw power.

@greenbdyw6y You're right, TBS instead of CBS. TV ratings interests are the same, though.

@GrahamDoeren @GrahamDoeren why would they do that or care, tbs is airing the game next week so why the hell would CBS give a shit

@IlliniDave34 Still might. But Duke be a legitimate title threat is a heck of a draw.

@GrahamDoeren I'd have thought Arizona Michigan would get the late game

Braden Smith is playing great early, but high percentage shots are just so much easier to come by for Arizona. Purdue can win but they'll need to shoot the lights out tonight.

Why do I get the feeling ticket resale websites are being flooded by Illinois-based IP addresses right now?