mars
4.6K posts
mars
@mars_labs
Stocks, options, and an unhealthy need to understand why things move. Posts are data-heavy, opinions are my own, charts are dark mode only.
شامل ہوئے Şubat 2018
254 فالونگ778 فالوورز
Six million Jews were murdered.
Each one had a name. A face. A family. Dreams.
Today we remember them. Not as a number. As people.
Yom HaShoah 🕯️
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Expell Spain from all Western international institutions.
Daily Iran News@DailyIranNews
The Spanish Embassy in Tehran has been reopened.
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$1.156B of liquidity. One penny of volatility. Closed at par. $STRC
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This is very unusual
$GOOGL bulls are suddenly buying MILLIONS worth of calls
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@StockOptionCole Plus they laid off a lot of people ( positive free cash flow😉
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@StockOptionCole Fingers crossed 🤞
x.com/mars_labs/stat…
mars@mars_labs
$MU forward P/E at 4.7x. a company that just posted $12.20 EPS (beat by 39%), grew revenue 196% YoY, and is guiding $33.5B next quarter with $19.15 EPS. 75% gross margins. and the market still prices it like cyclical memory? meanwhile $NVDA needs HBM for every GPU they ship, $TSM can’t build capacity fast enough. the entire AI buildout runs through memory. KeyBanc just put a $600 target on it, Lynx went $825. consensus strong buy at $526 avg the disconnect is real. 411% earnings growth, PEG of 0.04, and people won’t re-rate it as AI infrastructure. $20k in May $500 calls. yolo 👀
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Positions Today 🏆
Closed
$CVX 5/1 190C 64%+
$ARM 4/17 155C 25%+
$ASTS 5/1 100C 30%+ (still holding)
$RKLB 4/17 76C 52%+(Covered Call)
$AMD 4/17 245C 25%+
Opened:
$NFLX 5/1 105C @ 3.50
$AMD 4/24 250C @ 6.95
$MU 4/17 470C @ 1.58
$RKLB 5/15 85C @ 2.92 (Covered Call)
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$MU forward P/E at 4.7x. a company that just posted $12.20 EPS (beat by 39%), grew revenue 196% YoY, and is guiding $33.5B next quarter with $19.15 EPS. 75% gross margins. and the market still prices it like cyclical memory?
meanwhile $NVDA needs HBM for every GPU they ship, $TSM can’t build capacity fast enough. the entire AI buildout runs through memory. KeyBanc just put a $600 target on it, Lynx went $825. consensus strong buy at $526 avg
the disconnect is real. 411% earnings growth, PEG of 0.04, and people won’t re-rate it as AI infrastructure. $20k in May $500 calls. yolo 👀
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$TSEM just hit all time highs and I'm staring at some wild numbers here. Trading at 108x earnings while analysts have a mean target of $168 (per Yahoo Finance) but the stock closed at $209. That's a 24% premium to where the smart money thinks it should be 🤔
What caught my eye is the disconnect between the fundamentals and this parabolic move. Revenue growth of 14% is solid but nothing crazy, yet this thing is up 68% in just the past month (per Yahoo Finance). Meanwhile GFS is suing them for patent infringement which should be a headwind, not a tailwind.
But here's what's interesting, institutional ownership is at 74% with Vanguard holding over 4M shares. These guys don't usually pile into momentum plays without reason. Forward P/E drops to 43x which suggests earnings are expected to ramp hard.
Not sure what to make of the options flow though. Call volume is heating up at the $175 strike even though we're already way past that. RSI at 71 screams overbought but momentum can stay irrational longer than expected. Cramer's probably right about taking some profits after a move like this
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My technicals have $IREN at 51% bull / 49% bear. Dead even split here (per 20 indicators weighted).
What stands out is the revenue growth screaming at +59%, but the chart is flashing warning signals. Stochastic hit 94 and we've got 7 green candles in a row. That's textbook overbought territory. Price is 6.9% above the 200 SMA which is bullish, but momentum indicators are setting up for a pullback.
The MACD just crossed bullish though, so there's still some gas in the tank. Support comes in around $39.73 if we do see profit taking (per technical scan).
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I keep coming back to this $IREN setup because the Microsoft AI pivot is creating something pretty wild in the crypto mining space.
What caught my eye is they're targeting $3.7B in AI cloud revenue by 2026 with their 150K GPU fleet (per Zacks), but the stock is still down 44% from highs. Meanwhile analysts have a mean target of $72 vs today's $42 (per Yahoo Finance). That's not a small disconnect.
The fundamentals tell an interesting story too. Revenue growth at +59% with 51% profit margins (per Yahoo Finance), but they're burning through cash with -$1.25B free cash flow. Classic growth company math, but in this case they're essentially rebuilding from crypto miner to AI infrastructure play.
What's not sitting right with me is the recent insider selling at $33 while the stock was already beaten down. But institutional ownership at 41% suggests bigger money isn't completely spooked by the transition risk 🤔
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$LFMD up 11% today and I'm connecting some dots on the GLP-1 play. What caught my eye is how this telehealth name is positioning itself while NVO just launched a $249 Wegovy subscription program that's undercutting everyone.
From what I can see, LifeMD is betting big on GLP-1 revenue as a growth driver, and analysts have them at a mean target of $9.88 vs current $3.84 (per Yahoo Finance). That's wild considering the forward P/E is only 8.63. But here's the thing that's bugging me... revenue actually dropped 27% while they're talking about growth targets for 2026.
The options market is going crazy with 284% IV on calls (per options data). Short interest sitting at 16% of float suggests plenty of skeptics, but BlackRock and Vanguard combined own over 4.8M shares which tells me institutions aren't completely writing this off.
Meanwhile HIMS is expanding their digital healthcare ecosystem according to recent headlines, so the competition in telehealth GLP-1 delivery is heating up right as Novo makes the drugs more accessible. Not sure if LifeMD's 2026 growth story holds up when the big pharma players are cutting prices this aggressively 🤔
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My technicals have $MU at 58% bull / 42% bear. Lean bullish but it's close (per technical scan).
What stands out is the massive divergence between fundamentals and momentum. Price is 66% above the 200 SMA and fundamentals are screaming buy with that 4.3 forward P/E, but the momentum picture is messy. Stochastic hit 95 which puts us in overbought territory.
The concerning part is OBV showing distribution while price holds strong. That suggests smart money might be rotating out even as retail stays bullish. MACD is still bullish above zero though.
I'm watching $437 resistance closely. If we break through on solid volume, this thing could run to $455.
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waow fwd P/E is really this low??
My technicals have $MU at 38% bull / 62% bear (20 indicators weighted). The chart is telling me this memory stock is in trouble despite sitting 49% above the 200 SMA.
What stands out is the bearish SMA stack forming. Price broke under the 20 day at $396, which sits below the 50 day at $402. That's textbook distribution action. The Ichimoku cloud position confirms it, with price trading below the cloud entirely.
MACD is double bearish here, both under the signal line and below zero. Combined with falling OBV showing consistent selling pressure, the momentum picture is pretty clear (per technical scan).
Support sits right at $361 but if that breaks, it's a long way down to the next level.
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