Maybee.Predict

Prediction markets are evolving. MayBEE Predict is launching — a platform for: 🐝 traders 🐝 creators 🐝 communities Whitelist is LIVE. Early users will have an edge. Join here 👇 join.maybeepredict.io

🚀 Closed Beta Testnet is launching! We’re opening 5,000 spots for early testers of Maybee Predict. A total of 1,000,000 points will be distributed among participants. Want in? Don’t miss your chance to join the first wave of forecasters! 📖 Sign-up: join.maybeepredict.io

Want to predict the future and see what others think? Check out the full docs for Maybee Predict and learn how to launch and join PvP prediction markets: 📖 docs.maybeepredict.io

10/10 The internet runs on opinions today. Tomorrow? It might run on predictions.

9/10 That’s the vision for MaybePredict. A place to turn scattered predictions into clear, transparent markets — test your edge and learn from the crowd.

1/10 Every day, millions of predictions flood the internet: markets, politics, tech, sports, global events. Most vanish into noise as mere opinions. What if predictions became measurable — something real? 🧵

@ryonnixon This is a real inflection point. Regulatory uncertainty has been the biggest bottleneck for prediction markets, not demand. If the CFTC follows through, the conversation shifts from “are these legal?” to “who gets to regulate them?”

Big things are happening for prediction markets The CFTC just reversed course on a major statement that was crushing prediction market platforms. Before the government shutdown, they said prediction markets couldn't rely on CFTC protections. Now they're walking that back. Here's what changed: - The CFTC is modifying its 2024 rulemaking on prediction markets - They're reinstating protections they previously denied - Sports gambling via prediction markets was losing the legal battle against the incumbent sportsbooks... now, maybe not so much Why it matters: Kalshi, Polymarket, and other platforms were operating under regulatory uncertainty. This reversal opens the door for mainstream adoption of sports betting through prediction markets, something millions of people actually want. This may result in conflict between the states and the feds over who gets to regulate it. The catch: Expect lawsuits. If the CFTC formally approves sports gambling on prediction markets, both states (which want to issue their own licenses) and other opponents will likely challenge the rules. Still, this is a significant change for the prediction market ecosystem. The regulatory tailwinds are shifting.

@notnotstorm very informative visualization! will you aggregate the data from all available platforms in the future?

new from paradigm: we are building a tool for exploring prediction market data try it out today. I bet you'll find new markets you never knew existed

@davidtisch @BoxGroup congrats~

BoxGroup is excited to continue to be in the business of funding early stage ambitious founders building products they dream about - we've raised two new funds, each $275m, to give to founders as early as possible @BoxGroup More here: finance.yahoo.com/news/exclusive…

@ahboyash nice overview!

Prediction markets Overview 1. TLDR • Allows users to trade “shares” on future events (sports, politics, culture, crypto) that pay $1 if the event happens and $0 if it doesn’t • In theory, markets aggregate dispersed information into better forecasts; in practice the UX and distribution are shifting fast toward social, feed-native experiences • Daily volumes are around ~$30M each on Polymarket ($1b valuation) and Kalshi (~$2B valuation) and a friendlier U.S. regulatory stance on this market • Adheres to the "hypergamble/hyperfinancialisation" thesis and a growing social element --> every post has an attached market and “bets become statements” (identity + reputation), lowering intent/friction and broadening participation - - - - - 2. Project landscape a) Markets • @Polymarket: largest crypto-native venue on @Polygon whose markets resolve through UMA’s optimistic oracle • @Kalshi: A CFTC-regulated, U.S.-accessible exchange --> contracts listed on a Designated Contract Market with event specifications • @DriftProtocol B.E.T: DeFi native market on @solana b) Terminals & bots building on top • @fliprbot: social trading bot + terminal that started on X, goal to become a cross-venue aggregator • @polycule_bot: @telegram-native bot for Polymarket with copy-trading • @betmoardotfun: a Polymarket web terminal with breaking-news feeds, on-page trading, wallet/profiles analytics - - - - - 3. The risks (and why disputes happen) • Unclear market rules: Recent example was the $14M “Zelenskyy suit” where the market showed how even widely reported “facts” (most outlets said he wore a suit) can still be argued both ways --> what is perceived fairness? • Oracle design & governance trade-offs: On Polymarket, many markets ultimately rely on UMA token-holder votes. In the Venezuela election market, critics argue UMA voters overrode the event’s posted resolution rules (primary source of truth was the official results) and paid out based on a media-consensus standard instead --> i.e. conflicts if voters can also be traders • Manipulation risk: can shift from “truth-seeking” to “tautology-seeking” --> incentives to push narratives rather than measure them They were initially quite niche, but quickly moving into mainstream + socially distributed products. The upside is faster, crowd-priced info; but the big downside is that wording, oracles, and incentives still has to be solved. - - - - - *Notable project mentions a) Prediction markets • @Truemarketsorg • @HedgehogMarket • @noise_xyz • @inertia_social • @trylimitless • @swaye_co • @metaculus • @narrativexyz • @trepa_io • @xodotmarket • @ManifoldMarkets • @BRKTgg • @MyriadMarkets • @PredictBase b) Sports focused • @azuroprotocol • @Overtime_io • @SX_Bet

@kaiynne Market dips don’t expose bad projects. They expose bad characters.

The number of absolute fucking losers who have never done anything in their lives grave dancing good projects that are down over the last few days is frankly disgusting. Why the fuck are you even here, you are just coping with your own failure by tearing things down 😅

@Melt_Dem When gold gets jumpy and Bitcoin stays calm, pay attention...

gold is somehow more volatile than bitcoin right now and i feel like that is really saying something ... 👀

@ASvanevik AI isn’t killing crypto demand. It’s killing lazy SaaS. Capital will still chase asymmetric bets — just more selectively

AI deflates software pricing … which compresses tech multiples … which means techbro wealth goes down … which means less techbro wealth to chase crypto yes?

@vanishree_rao You can’t call it a market if winners don’t get paid. Forecast accuracy without reliable settlement is just expensive polling.

Prediction markets have a scary resolution crisis.