Metaculus

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Metaculus

Metaculus

@metaculus

Aggregating human & AI forecasts on critical topics. FutureEval: https://t.co/AuPHSXYp4z Partner w/ us: https://t.co/9Ld1Xrjwpq Updates: https://t.co/Ndq6tdZpbt

Santa Cruz, CA Katılım Kasım 2015
800 Takip Edilen12.5K Takipçiler
Metaculus retweetledi
Molly Hickman
Molly Hickman@celloMolly·
Super excited about this Horizon Scanning project with @ARIA_research @RenPhilanthropy. You can help! Yes, you! We'll be launching more questions in the next few weeks and we need your forecasts: metaculus.com/tournament/hor…
Metaculus@metaculus

Q for scientists & researchers: what percentage of the most consequential research in your field is actually getting funded? Are funders identifying the areas where their support might do the most good? (Quick 🧵)

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Metaculus@metaculus·
10/ If you work in: - plant biotech - genomics - regulatory science - biosecurity - ecosystems - biomanufacturing …we want your takes! And tap your colleagues in. Even quick gut forecasts from domain experts are valuable. metaculus.com/tournament/hor…
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Metaculus@metaculus·
9/ More questions will be released in the coming weeks! Stay tuned.
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Metaculus@metaculus·
Q for scientists & researchers: what percentage of the most consequential research in your field is actually getting funded? Are funders identifying the areas where their support might do the most good? (Quick 🧵)
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Metaculus retweetledi
Nathan 🔎
Nathan 🔎@NathanpmYoung·
Sure, Metaculus are paying me this season, but if you have pretensions to understand geopolitics you should forecast. Watch yourself be trivially wrong. Feel that pain. The shut up or improve. I am saying this to my geopolitics guys. The world needs you to do better.
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Metaculus@metaculus·
ANNOUNCING: Frontiers in Disease Prevention, a new @coeff_giving x @Metaculus initiative exploring how forecasting can help identify and prioritize the most impactful ways to prevent disease. It features questions on tuberculosis vaccines, GeneDrive tech, & micro needle patch vaccines. Read more + start forecasting: metaculus.com/notebooks/4282…
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Metaculus@metaculus·
ANNOUNCING: the winners of the Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Tournament! 🎉 7k+ forecasters, across 700+ schools, from 93 countries competed for a $30k prize pool & potential opportunities with @Bridgewater. Read more about the winners of both the Undergraduate and Open tracks here: metaculus.com/notebooks/4274…
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Metaculus@metaculus·
@InBrokenCountry @shashj A couple quick clarifications: - The best forecasters refer to experts and ongoing media coverage to formulate their positions; IOW expertise & forecasting not mutually exclusive - Metaculus is not a prediction market, there’s no gambling on our platform
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Fascism And Its Discontents
Fascism And Its Discontents@InBrokenCountry·
@shashj Big Talk. Do tell: - what is 'valuable' re crowdsourced wisdom (as opposed to expertise)? - does it require wagering money to somehow make it *more* valuable? - does throwing out shopworn cliches such as Luddism somehow bolster your (unconvincing) postion....? - are you 12yo?
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Metaculus@metaculus·
@shashj Yes! Crowds succeed when incentives, calibration, and track records are in place—that’s when forecasting shines (and that’s the community we seek to foster at @Metaculus. Thank you to @shashj for getting it).
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Metaculus@metaculus·
@shashj We’d love to hear why you think the chances are higher that the US stops the war sooner than the community prediction. Perhaps you have context forecasters would benefit from!
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Shashank Joshi
Shashank Joshi@shashj·
Metaculus increasingly gloomy. Personally I think there is a much, much higher chance of the US stopping the war this month or in early April, well short of May. Whether that is a formal "ceasefire" or not is a different matter, though.
Shashank Joshi tweet mediaShashank Joshi tweet media
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Metaculus@metaculus·
Our community currently assigns a ~15% probability of the US and Iran agreeing to a ceasefire before May 2026. @shashj thinks the war will likely end sooner, but with caveats around it perhaps not being through a formal ceasefire. What do you think?
Shashank Joshi@shashj

Metaculus increasingly gloomy. Personally I think there is a much, much higher chance of the US stopping the war this month or in early April, well short of May. Whether that is a formal "ceasefire" or not is a different matter, though.

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Metaculus@metaculus·
Peter is on the board in part because of his track record as a forecaster, not the other way around. And there's no mechanism to game forecast accuracy (unless you can control the future). All scoring is open-source and auditable. github.com/Metaculus/meta… #tournament-scores" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">metaculus.com/help/scores-fa…
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Itai Sher
Itai Sher@itaisher·
“Superforecaster”
Peter Wildeford🇺🇸🚀@peterwildeford

@eli_lifland I think AGI by end of 2027 should be ~8% now I think I'd forecast: ~2026-2030 -- AI replaces ~all AI researchers ~2027-2033 -- AI replaces ~all white collar industry ~2032-2040 -- AI replaces ~all human industry ~2033-2042 -- All humans dead or obsolete

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Keşfet

@ARIA_research @RenPhilanthropy @coeff_giving @Bridgewater @InBrokenCountry @shashj @kikollaneras @el_pais