Adam Ozimek

What should we do about high skilled immigration and why? This is the topic of my huge new report with @LettieriDC and @cojobrien: Exceptional by Design. Quick thread on why I think you should read this report. eig.org/exceptional-by…

@binarybits I am sure if polls showed huge support for banning data centers Elon would apply this logic consistently

We live in a constitutional republic not a democracy. The Founders set up a system of checks and balances to insulate elected officials from majoritarian pressures. Maybe we need to teach immigrants like Elon more about our history and culture before giving them citizenship. 😂

Watch how poorly this war goes down with voters and really ask yourself whether we would have the public support to withstand the economic shock of a war with China for the sake of the people of Taiwan. Hold aside good or bad, I really don't think we are remotely willing

Never deleting this app

WOW. Just in the last two weeks, BYD showrooms around the world are seeing a surge in customer demand from people who are deciding that now is the time to switch to EVS, with oil prices so high. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

I really, really, really doubt this

The Chuck Norris meme obviously highlighted this fact, but it really is true that among the action stars he was probably the most legit tough guy. Trained seriously across many disciplines.

@TheStalwart I think they're going to try to walk it back in coming weeks. Look forward to testing that theory with your measure

It'll be interesting to see how this looks over the next week, as we get more post-FOMC Fedspeak. But my proprietary measure of FOMC hawkishness climbed even further after Powell's press conference.

@CarrollDoherty Thats true but a lot of people are claiming its happening already.

@ModeledBehavior This piece accurately describes the present and recent past (data over past 25 years). But no one really knows whether college will retain its advantage in the AI future.

I am concerned all the doom about young college grads is going to convince many that non-college is a better path to prosperity. While obviously true sometimes, the data is clear that college grads are still doing better. nationalreview.com/2026/03/ais-ov…

@MikeEnglund2 Pointing to the existence of signaling effects does not prove that marginal students don't benefit. There is a literature here that is useful. faculty.kriegj.wwu.edu/Econ406/Papers…

@ModeledBehavior There is no doubt that high performing students can turn a degree into a high paying job, but those students generally aren't the ones on the fence regarding going to college. It is the cost-effectiveness of college to mid-level students that is at issue.

@MikeEnglund2 Yet employers value that evidence, often considering it necessary. From the student's perspective, the signaling vs human capital theory is less relevant than you think

@ModeledBehavior The point is that eventual success is probably mostly driven by the work habits of the student, with or without the degree. The degree is just a piece paper to use as evidence. If a low performer is given the paper, they may get an initial job offer, but will still underperform.

@Aesop_NPV @jasonfurman Two masters degrees usually is a waste of time I agree

@ModeledBehavior @jasonfurman College is increasingly a waste of time. I say that with two Master's Degrees! I am very pro eduction. It's just that little "education" occurs at American universities today.

@MikeEnglund2 You are describing selection, not signaling. Signaling IS a causal effect

@ModeledBehavior You have a big causality problem with your claim, because high-performing students destined for a high-salary career like doctor go to college, while low-performing students generally don't. Is the college degree raising your salary, or is it just a signaling device?

@DanteJeffe14617 When you claim "virtually no", yes 4.3 million is meaningful. It's 13% of those workers. You need to seriously moderate your claims, they are inaccurate.

@ModeledBehavior The people making more than the typical college educated worker are heavily men working is certain trades and they are out-earning women who are like social workers and elementary school teachers, but if they had gone to college, they wouldn’t have ended up doing that.

@DanteJeffe14617 4.3 million workers with a high school or less make more than the median college educated worker.

@ModeledBehavior Sorry, I meant to say virtually no high school grads make as much as the median professional school educated person.

@DanteJeffe14617 According to 2024 US Census data, around 8% of workers with only a high school degree make over $100,000. That is for workers age 25 to 54 who aren't currently enrolled in any school.

@ModeledBehavior There are virtually no blue collar jobs where a single earner makes $100k a year and the jobs that do exist are not common jobs.

@DanteJeffe14617 You are trying to make claims about "almost never" by appealing to "most". That won't cut it!

@ModeledBehavior Most blue collar jobs pay like $50k and these are almost exclusively male jobs. There’s no equivalent job for a woman who doesn’t go to college and men who don’t go to college are mostly going to marry women who don’t so this means your family income is likely going to be $70k.

@DanteJeffe14617 I don't agree

@ModeledBehavior It’s almost never true that not going to college is a path to prosperity. At best, it’s a path to a lower middle class life and that’s basically the best income you can reasonably expect.

AI's crushing college grads, right? It's tantalizing, but the facts lead another direction. College and non-college young adults are both facing a tougher hiring market than during the ZIRP era. College grads still have the edge. My latest @NRO: nationalreview.com/2026/03/ais-ov…