Nick

things I find interesting and broken in prediction markets, crypto, trading and finance not financial advice. not even good advice. just a guy who lost some money and decided to investigate why will post: market breakdowns, dispute analysis, on-chain finds, bot experiments, and occasional degen takes

Crazy things happening right now at @rolandgarros - @janniksin losing the match! The odds changed instantly - both for the match and for the cup

Past few days on Polymarket highest-temp markets, my leading buckets keep flipping 99 → 0 in the final minutes. Latest: Tokyo, May 27 - sitting at 95.5, flipped to 0 when temp jumped +1°C on the last reading. Just my luck or is something off with the weather / markets?

@atteonthephone what the hell

Today in Polymarket fuckups - we're betting on OIL Daily Up or Down. The special UI created for this market says that current oil price is $94.10 and the "Price To Beat" is $90.32. Four hours left in the timer. Market is pricing Y shares at... [checks notes]... 5c. Huh? [thread]

@BeefSlayer_ @Polymarket Just put a limit sell at 99.9 to free up capital

Change to @Polymarket temperature markets starting May 27th. Previously markets could resolve mid-day once WU logged a temp crossing a bracket. Now they can't resolve until the NEXT day's first data point is published — meaning you're holding positions overnight. Read the new rules before you trade.

@husky_vs @Polymarket Polymarket in one picture 🙃

I’ve been trading weather for over 100 days straight, and today, with weather markets gone, I genuinely don’t know what to do with my free time 😄 I actually enjoy diving into weather. @Polymarket , bring back weather markets, don’t let me get bored.

@bubblemaps that's crazy

NEW | 🇺🇸 The biggest military insider? A cluster of accounts made $2.4M betting on US military action with a 98% win rate No one spotted him before 🧵

. @Polymarket in one picture

Great Monday: lost all Polymarket positions AND my Twitter analytics decided to disappear too at least it's consistent

@GnatykA @Polymarket Polymarket team is probably just sleeping and don't even know they have a problem yet 😴 Wake up guys, your markets are gone

Maybe it's time to move to Kalshi? 🤔 Everything is working here, but the @Polymarket team took all the users' money, wiped the markets, and couldn't give any sensible explanation for over 7 hours about when the funds and markets will be back. 🛑 Absolutely awful communication! 🤬 📢 **MAXIMUM REPOST / SPREAD THE WORD!** Let's make sure everyone sees this! ⚡️ > #Polymarket #Kalshi #Crypto #PredictionMarkets #wheathermarket

Woke up to see all the weather markets disappeared  from @Polymarket together with all my opened positions and money what a nice Monday morning

@theparuchh awesome story man! Doing exactly the same for a week but still in the red PNL zone 😃 Anyway I think that the strategy and bot will be more efficient as I continue to tune the strategy, weather sources, order sizes and so on

Continuing to improve the weather bot on Polymarket 🥊 Little Rocky now: > uses 119 ensemble members (3 models: GFS + ICON + ECMWF) > collects forecast data throughout the day > we changed the bet sizing: > 2 main temperatures at $2 each (100%) > 1 adjacent bin per ensemble at $1.2 (60%) > 1 long-shot bet at $0.5 ( 25% ) > long-shot bet only if price <5 cents P.S. Today's observation: Polymarket showed Hong Kong 30°C at 60% probability while our ensemble pointed to 28-29 as the peak. An hour later, HKO station shows 29.5°C at noon. Polymarket traders read the station directly. The ensemble runs ~1°C cold. Looks like we need to bring station-level bias back.

@perkmaybe trying to predict the future with math and losing money in the process. follow if that sounds fun

Promote yourself to new mutuals👇

@appledog_xyz @Polymarket I stopped trading the btc 5 min up-down exactly because of the constant problems with the resolutions, delayed data, strange spikes it looks too uncontrolled and chaotic

Thank @Polymarket , another day another bug again , WKWK

@appledog_xyz @Polymarket @betmoardotfun everyone laughs at 0.25% yield per trade until they see the equity curve

Will you call me stupid if I risk 1000 $ per trade , just to win 2.5 $ for each trade ? What you think ? total 2361 trade in 6 Months with 99.99 % winrate .

@o_sam_w8 trying to predict the future with math and losing money in the process. follow if that sounds fun

@00Sindirella trying to predict the future with math and losing money in the process. follow if that sounds fun

@jehniiee trying to predict the future with math and losing money in the process. follow if that sounds fun

@mrtbrgl trying to predict the future with math and losing money in the process. follow if that sounds fun

@perkmaybe trying to predict the future with math and losing money in the process. follow if that sounds fun

Bro to Bro: build your x account Just say “hello” and gain 700 mutuals here.

@vai1kai trying to predict the future with math and losing money in the process. follow if that sounds fun

Do you have 0 followers? Drop hello, I'm Active👋 Gain 200+ followers this evening 🙋‍♀️