Panopticon Capital

@EyesUnWoke @jakebrowatzke Did you write at Seeking Alpha in 2022 that PLTR is a 3$ stock?

$PATH red while the market rips. Bulls waiting for @jakebrowatzke next spin on why this is actually bullish.

@jakebrowatzke The FY27 Revenue Guidance was just a joke, Jake.

$PATH should be up 20%+ tomorrow 💪 Only people disappointed are those who were watching my stream when my internet went out 😂

Peter Thiel: opens trading app. Face ID. Swipe. Swipe. $290,000,000 sold. Probably didn't even look up from his coffee. Me after selling 100 shares of $PLTR: "Did I make a mistake?"😂

Everyone focused on $PATH's ARR number last quarter. Almost nobody noticed what happened in the UAE. UiPath just became the first automation vendor with a locally hosted, Azure-backed cloud deployment in the Gulf — and the implications are massive. Gulf data residency regulations are among the strictest globally. Public sector contracts require local data hosting, national cybersecurity framework compliance, and explicit agency certification. Once you're the certified provider inside that infrastructure, you own those workflows for years. Automation Anywhere? Not there. Power Automate standalone? Not there. But here's the bigger signal: Microsoft is the one co-deploying with UiPath. The supposed competitor is actively helping PATH expand into new regulated markets.This fits a pattern the sell-side keeps modeling wrong. They treat Microsoft as a binary threat: "Power Automate cannibalizes UiPath — yes or no?" The actual dynamic: Microsoft sells Azure compute + Copilot licenses. UiPath delivers the process automation that makes the ROI real. Win-win architecture, not zero-sum. Q4 report drops March 11. I'm watching for more co-deployment announcements — especially public sector. What's the bear case when your "biggest competitor" keeps partnering with you?

Accel — the same VC that backed UiPath from its $30M Series A to a $35B IPO — just valued n8n at $2.5B on ~$40M ARR. That’s ~62x ARR for a pre-profit startup solving the same core problem: AI agent orchestration. Meanwhile, $PATH trades at ~3x ARR with $1.85B ARR, GAAP profitability, $1.5B cash, zero debt, and 10,800+ enterprise customers. The comparison: ∙n8n: $2.5B valuation · ~$40M ARR · 62x multiple · pre-profit · 67 employees · ~3,000 clients ∙UiPath: ~$5.5B market cap · ~$1.85B ARR · ~3x multiple · GAAP profitable · ~$200M+ FCF · 10,800+ enterprise clients Accel knows the automation-to-agentic-AI cycle better than anyone. Their willingness to pay 62x ARR for n8n tells you exactly how they value the agentic AI orchestration market. But here’s the key nuance: n8n is developer-first, SMB/mid-market. UiPath is enterprise-scale with governance, compliance, and years of production maturity (Maestro platform). They’re complementary, not competitors — yet the public market prices $PATH as if it’s legacy RPA in decline. Even a modest re-rating to 6x ARR — still less than 1/10th of n8n’s multiple — implies ~$23/share. That’s 120%+ upside from ~$10. With Q4 earnings on March 11 and Accel effectively validating the agentic AI thesis with their own checkbook, this is the disconnect smart money should be watching. The VC market is pricing agentic AI orchestration aggressively. The public market is pricing it at zero for UiPath. One of them is wrong.

@themarketuni @investwithintel I remember 😎

@investwithintel Welcome 🫶 Sentiment is soo poor it reminds me when everyone was releasing videos to sell $PLTR at $7

I couldn’t help myself. Just bought 1k shares of $PATH after hours last night Will probably add LOTS more Full thesis to come soon!

Li Lu & Charlie Munger - The Friendship That Shaped a Philosophy Li Lu is one of the most fascinating figures in value investing, and his relationship with Charlie Munger is the stuff of investing legend. Who is Li Lu? Li Lu survived Tiananmen Square in 1989, immigrated to the US with $50, and built Himalaya Capital into a compounding machine. He's not just Munger's protégé — Munger called him "one of the best investors in the world" and gave him a significant portion of his family's wealth to manage. That's not an endorsement. That's trust. The Munger Connection Munger met Li Lu in the mid-1990s and immediately recognized something rare: a disciplined, patient thinker who understood both Eastern and Western business cultures. Their friendship became intellectual partnership. Munger didn't just mentor Li Lu on investing — they exchanged ideas as equals. Li Lu introduced Munger to opportunities in China. Munger reinforced Li Lu's discipline around quality and patience. The result? Li Lu runs one of the most concentrated portfolios in professional investing. As of Q4 2025, just 9 stocks managing $3.6 billion. What This Portfolio Tells Us Look at the concentration: 44% in Alphabet (GOOG/GOOGL combined) — conviction in quality at scale 16% Bank of America — Buffett/Munger influence is obvious 15% Pinduoduo (PDD) — the China bridge Munger trusted Li Lu to navigate 13% Berkshire Hathaway — investing alongside the teachers And then there's this: 1.51% in $CROX, marked "Buy." Li Lu doesn't trade. He doesn't rotate. When he buys, it's because he sees something the market doesn't. $CROX at 1.51% in a 9-stock portfolio isn't a "small position." It's a barbell to his mega-cap core — and he's adding. The Philosophy Munger once said: "Li Lu has the best 30-year record of anyone I know." That record came from: Extreme patience (holds for decades) Deep research (often travels to meet management personally) Concentrated bets (9 stocks, not 90) Indifference to volatility (the market doesn't dictate his timeline) This is Munger's worldview, refined through Li Lu's bicultural lens. Why It Matters Now In an era of index funds and "diversification," Li Lu is proof that the Munger model still works: Find great businesses, pay fair prices, do nothing for years. The $3.6B portfolio with 9 names is a masterclass in saying "no" to everything except the highest-conviction ideas. And if Li Lu is buying $CROX at these levels while everyone else is worried about HEYDUDE? I'm paying attention. Thoughts? Who else follows Li Lu's 13Fs religiously? 👇

@DivesTech @PaloAltoNtwks @CNBCClosingBell @CNBC @CNBCtech What bears miss on $PANW: platformization compresses sales cycles AND expands wallet share simultaneously. That's rare. The CyberArk angle just accelerates consolidation Nikesh has been building for 2 years. -11% YTD on that moat is a gift. What's your price target?

The Palo/CyberArk deal puts PANW along with CRWD in the drivers seat to monetize this major AI cyber oppy. This is the goal and we strongly agree with the strategic path for Nikesh and @PaloAltoNtwks @CNBCClosingBell 🏆🎯🐂 @CNBC @CNBCtech

$PANW Q2 FY2026 Earnings – Beat & Drop. What Happened? Palo Alto reported Q2 after the bell yesterday. The quarter itself? Strong. The outlook? That's where it gets ugly. The Quarter: Beat Across the Board Revenue: $2.59B (+15% y/y) — top end of guidance NGS ARR: $6.33B (+33% y/y) — well above guidance, accelerating from 29% in Q1 EPS: $1.03 non-GAAP — a full $0.08 above the high end of guidance Op. Margin: 30.3% — third consecutive quarter above 30% Platformization is delivering: 173 customers with >$5M NGS ARR (+48% y/y), mega-deals including $50M+ with a global automaker. The machine is running. So Why -8% After Hours? Three words: Guidance, dilution, CyberArk. ~100M new shares from the CyberArk acquisition → ~14% dilution in one shot Q3 EPS guidance at just $0.78–0.80 (after $1.03 in Q2) — below consensus FCF margin cut from 38–39% to 37%, op. margin guidance signals stagnation at best FY26 EPS guidance ($3.65–3.70) disappointed the Street. Integrating CyberArk ($25B) and Chronosphere ($3.35B) simultaneously is a massive undertaking. What to Watch Organic growth remains ~15% — the ~29% Q3 guide is M&A-driven CyberArk integration: Can PANW retain the salesforce without losing organic execution? DRAM costs: Product revenue was strong ($514M), but rising hardware costs could pressure margins CrowdStrike isn't sleeping — Falcon LogScale and their SIEM push target Cortex/XSIAM directly Bottom Line Operationally excellent, forward story pressured near-term. At ~$150 after hours, the stock trades at ~38–41x FY26 EPS. Not absurdly expensive for a cybersecurity franchise on an $11B+ revenue trajectory — but not cheap enough to fully compensate for integration risk either. The real question isn't whether this quarter was good — it was. The question is: will PANW look like a genius for swallowing CyberArk, or did they just buy themselves 12 months of dead money? Q3 will tell us a lot.

Exactly right on the buyback math. They're retiring shares at ~8x FCF while the brand prints 25%+ margins. The HeyDude inventory reset was painful but smart – management chose long-term margin integrity over short-term optics. That's the kind of discipline the market eventually rewards.

I’m in $CROX. Have been for a bit. I think there still remains good value with buybacks + HeyDude turnaround. Hey dude was obviously a bad acquisition, wasn’t in it at the time. But management pivot to shareholder return with buyback acceleration and guidance for a return to growth for HeyDudes in 2H26. Valuation has been too low, on buybacks alone. Crox just needs to have HeyDudes not be such a drag and I think we’ll see a good re rate. Management took a lot of proactive decisions these past 2Qs to fix inventory, buyback slow moving HeyDudes, and reduce discounts etc - all of which hurt results in the short term but are long term focused. I’m happy with it.

There’s is a circle of investors I talk to regularly and they are worth noting. Some are newer to this platform/are more popular on other platforms, but I highly suggest checking them out and giving them a follow. I take our talks seriously. In no particular order: @Sand2Server @ColtonInvests @BuyingToOwn @QualityInvest5 @CapexAndChill @Fred_Abyss @jimmyinvest @TacticzH Any under followed accounts you recommend for me, drop in comments. 🙏🏻

@StockMKTNewz Time in the market beats timing the market. Buy a broad index fund like the S&P 500 and don't touch it. The hardest part of investing isn't picking stocks — it's doing nothing when everything feels like it's falling apart.

There is at least 1 person who is seeing this post that this will be their FIRST WEEK investing What is 1 piece of advice you would give to them?

@midascabal 🙋 Holding $PATH and apparently one of five people still believing. Chart looks like it lost a fight, I'll admit. But enterprise automation doesn't get uninstalled because Twitter got bored. The contracts are still there. Am I actually alone out here?

Is anyone on X still bullish on $PATH?

@midascabal There's a third option: slow compounder that never moons but never dies. $PATH has real enterprise contracts and sticky automation workflows. The boring middle outcome is underrated. What's your actual bear case on it?

$ZETA and $PATH are either the next $PLTR or are going to zero.

@RJCcapital @michaeljburry Michael Burry is basically doing free $PLTR R&D at this point. First it's a bubble. Now AI is real but $PLTR is replaceable. Next month: "okay $PLTR is fine but the font on the dashboard is overvalued." $PLTR holder. Not selling.

.@michaeljburry you’re awfully quiet here

$PANW bears pointing at NGS ARR deceleration like it's a death sentence. Meanwhile: 100% EPS & revenue beat rate over 2 years, 31 upward EPS revisions this quarter, and 40%+ FCF margin target still intact. Deceleration from 32% to 26.5% on a $6B+ ARR base is called math, not weakness. Am I missing something here?

@amitisinvesting @Mr_Derivatives Deleting replies is telling. When your bear thesis is solid you defend it — you don't scrub the evidence. Meanwhile $PLTR just keeps stacking government contracts and growing revenue 36% YoY. But sure, spam the Substack link harder Michael.

@Mr_Derivatives and now he deleted all of his posts responding to me lol

Michael Burry’s last 40 replies in the last hour are just him spamming his Substack… What’s going on?!

@shagsverywell @RJCcapital Premium gets taxed, sure — tiny compared to cashing out 1,100% in gains. I only sell covered calls on ⅓ of my $PLTR. Far OTM, and if it gets close I roll up and out. Two-thirds ride untouched. That's not risk, that's income. More on this strategy soon 👀

@PanopticonCap @RJCcapital So you don’t pay taxes on the gains you make from selling covered calls? And if the stock sharply reverses and they get called away?

Michael Burry one month ago: Artificial intelligence is so shit. This is a bubble. Michael Burry today: Artificial intelligence is so transformative that companies will replicate $PLTR in-house. This is a bubble.