PolyPorx

Trump TACO or de-escalation before escalation before de-escalation? 🇺🇸🇮🇷 To the utter surprise of nobody, Trump’s empty war crime threat proved to be just that. Let’s look at: 👉Why Trump crushed war volatility for five days 👉The dynamic of the situation 👉What the proposed deal seems to be 👉What I believe happens next Why Trump crushed war volatility for five days Had I put more weight on the signals coming yesterday, I could have positioned myself better, because the ever-scheming Hakan Fidan signaled that something is brewing: x.com/ragipsoylu/sta… Trump backtracked on the war crime he so far only announced but only for the next 5 (market) days. How convenient. True to his game as master gaslighter and narrative manipulator, the frame shifted from ‘boots when and how’ to ‘will ceasefire talks succeed’. He crushed WTI for $10, which would not have been possible without issuing the empty threat in the first place. Mission accomplished, for now. The dynamic of the situation The messages appear to be real and the mediators involve the countries with a vested interest: 🇴🇲Oman: wants to become the go-to West Asia mediator. 🇹🇷Türkiye: wants to check Israel’s ambitions and keep Islamic Republic intact and Kurds in their place. 🇵🇰Pakistan: wants to avoid having to answer Saudi requests about their entente and how that also applies to a possible Saudi entry into the war after a possible Iran escalation. Notably absent: 🇮🇱Israel: no explanation needed 🇦🇪UAE: wants the job finished and Iran be put in place, see here x.com/ragipsoylu/sta… 🇶🇦Qatar: said yesterday has no diplomatic contacts atm, probably pissed at Iran. 🇸🇦Saudi: seems to be on the fence about weakening Iran too much. 🇨🇳🇷🇺China/Russia: busy and/or disinterested In a bizarre inversion of the pre-war talks, now Trump is touting progress and Iran is putting the brakes on. Gaslighting the market for five days about progress, real or not, has no costs and only upside. It also sets a narrative frame in case talks fall through (again) because Iran was intransigent (again). Simultaneously, the US is sending more troops into the theater. I somehow doubt they’re coming for the lulz. This is a repeat of 2025 and February: Trump is happy to ‘talk to anyone’ and ‘Iran wants a deal badly’. Both things are true but lies by omission. Iran wants a deal on Iran’s terms. Because Iran discovered that the leverage they used for the first time is significant and their price will be high. What the proposed deal seems to be Based on Trump’s gaggle, he seems to be proposing that the US gets access to/custody of the Iranian uranium in return for a new ‘joint control’ of the SoH after a ceasefire: x.com/atrupar/status… The person he declines to name as interlocutor seems to be Iran’s speaker of the parliament: x.com/AmichaiStein1/… I predict this deal will not materialize at the current stage for several reasons: 👉 Iran’s only collateral is their uranium. Once they give it up—in exchange for a promise by Trump no less—they have nothing to deter the US with. The supposedly offered to send it to Russia pre-war. Now they will just hand Trump the uranium after discovering they have significant leverage over the global flow of hydrocarbons? How did Trump’s promises work out for Hamas? I am extremely skeptical. However, Trump may also just choose to lie about the uranium since half is supposedly buried at Isfahan and the other half’s location unknown. A good combo for a lie. 👉Second, the UAE and Qatar cannot accept implicit Iranian control over SoH. They cannot really sway the US but their relationship would seriously sour. Keep in mind that these countries bankroll Trump’s crypto and AI Ponzi schemes. The magic money promises they made could vanish if this deal materialized. That’s why I believe the negotiations will fail and are, in fact, only narrative management and an effort to stall for time, see QT. Both parties believe they are winning and both are too dug in. Neither has entered the unbearable pain zone in terms of costs. Trump is looking for an exit and testing different messages of declaring victory. See his Fox interview where he said ‘this is regime change in a way.’ S-tier gaslighting. But I predict Iran will remain intransigent and Trump knows it, which is why he’ll want more collateral to trade in negotiations. What I believe happens next A quick ceasefire is possible under the following conditions: 👉The US and Israel unilaterally halt all strikes on Iran (Aragchi has voiced this several times as a condition to negotiations). 👉The US implicitly accepts the new status quo of the SoH and Iran’s leverage over it. 👉Iran acquiesces to the previous points and takes its strategic profits, while nursing its military losses. From there Iran imo likely goes the North Korea route and becomes a rogue state trying to dash to the bomb. The ceasefire happens when these three conditions are fulfilled. Unless they aren’t, I expect it to be more akin to a grinding negotiation similar to the Ukraine war than to the 2025 war. I made the argument why imo point 2 is unacceptable to the US. The UAE/Qatar cannot accept Iranian leverage over the SoH, very much unlike Turkey, Oman, and Pakistan. That’s why ‘escalate to de-escalate’ is still on the table and coming fast imo. I still fully expect the US to put boots on the ground in some shape or form, either for a raid or to seize Kharg, or something else. The secondary objectives of killing Mojtaba and gaining access to the Iranian uranium not buried under rubble have not yet been achieved. The US cannot accept the current status quo AND missing out on these. At least one has to happen and in the allotted 6-week timeframe. My predicted sequence of events: 👉Escalation soon, as early as next weekend, designed to create a better position for Trump to be able to climb down from. 👉A sharp escalation is followed/accompanied by sharp and serious de-escalation. Think seizing Kharg and declaring the mission completed, with only defensive actions undergoing. 👉The structural costs for both sides (economic for US, political/military for Iran) create the incentives for a ceasefire in Q2, though not before the end of Trump’s deadline. I’m positioned accordingly. Let’s see what happens.