
denizz
62 posts

denizz
@denizz_poly
Polymarket Middle East specialist https://t.co/AVL8vwVojQ




Incredible read: 60 New Yorkers on how much they made last year. Midtown coffee cart guy made as much as a NYT Bestselling Author with 800k IG followers. Both made 1/3 as much as a server at a midtown power lunch spot & less than a traveling lice lady. archive.is/ezKAu




I cannot use @Polymarket anymore. There have been iffy clarifications but this by far takes the cake. There was no consensus. You resolved this market off of an unsourced claim from a two-sentence blurb in a morning newsletter article from a random NYT reporter living in the UK who most likely got the information from Hezbollah statements. This site is a joke. It was legitimately unclear who performed this strike or if it was a joint operation from the Israel or the US. Nobody was expecting a single offhand unsourced claim from a single article to resolve this market which is why it traded at 95c for No the night prior and why the previous market resolved the way it did. longwarjournal.org/archives/2026/… Thanks to everyone who has supported me through my journey on the site but it's time to leave. So long, and thanks for all the fish. 🫡
















JUST IN 🇮🇷: Iran's FM Confirms U.S. and Iran Diplomats Shook Hands Abbas Araghchi: "There was no direct meeting, but we had an encounter - for diplomatic courtesy, when delegations arrive, there was a handshake and basic politeness."

Anyone who doubts this is utterly naive.




Iran won't fold on everything but the US could easily accept proxies being omitted from the deal. A tacit understanding could be reached on ballistic missiles or the topic could be dropped by the US.

It's getting drowned out a bit, but if Iran is willing to surrender its stockpile of 60% uranium, it would be a massive concession and would reset the break-out clock to pre-2021. The risk of Iran successfully dashing to a bomb would fall significantly. A notable achievement.




The still-broken Polymarket expiration system has produced another doozy. A written log of a crank caller talking about baby sacrifices and brains being turned into mush was determined to be "evidence of blackmail" uncovered in the Epstein files. Users trading the $2m market woke up to YES being paid out overnight this morning based on...unsubstantiated nonsense. Stop me if you've heard this one before, but the biggest profiter was aenews, who determined the crank call "should qualify" as evidence!🙃 When prediction markets smuggle made-up crap as "truth" and "evidence", then these markets are actually a very bad thing, instead of a good thing. The markets wind up endorsing lies, and overturning reality. Users on both Polymarket and Kalshi** have to be mindful that these markets are still a bit of the Wild West, and both platforms kind of just ignore ongoing rules challenges. There are occassionally vague apologies, and in very egregious cases they are shamed into giving refunds. But, by and large, you're meant to just grin and accept a total loss when they screw up. **An example on Kalshi is they recently ruled that Netflix saying "Warner Brothers" on its earnings call should be a LOSS for anyone holding YES in "Warner Bros" because they didn't say the slang term bros. Their young kid rules guy said he "simply had no idea" they were saying Warner Brothers, and indicated he thought they were saying Warner Bros. The two terms are, of course, completely synonomous in every single way and the people who bet on the truth/reality lost all of their money for reasons that defy logic and common sense. If you use these sites or are interested in using these sites, there are still lots of questionable decisions and oversights that happen on a routine basis, and you have to keep your head on a swivel. gl gl gl.




