RealEqual

@ParadisLabs I disagree on $SNAP not being "Undervalued". Your favorite Reddit P/S 22.5 vs Snapchat P/S 1.6 Next earnings will be significantly better than the previous.

My friend bought $SNAP shares last week... And I wanted to $SNAP his phone in half so that he could no longer access his brokerage account. Because for the love of God, Cheap =/= Undervalued: TLDR: Snapchat is a sh1t product. High level notes: 1 > $SNAP's recent Q4 25 "profitability" is a fugazi created by cutting growth investments Which ultimately cut the acquisition tap for older users, while younger ones are going over to TikTok. Resulting in huge declines in its most profitable markets by starving its funnel to save its bottom line. - North American DAUs declined 6% YoY to 94M. All because management cut growth marketing to "buy" profit. - American users generate $10.88 ARPU vs. $1.24 for the RoW. Meaning that $SNAP needs to add ~9 intl users to replace just 1 American lol. A truly catastrophic revenue-mix shift where they need to scale massively just to keep their top line flat. Sounds appealing!!1!!1! 2 > Advertiser growth > revenue growth? Total advertisers grew 28%, but revenue grew only 5%. Cos of an inventory glut from Spotlight and Sponsored Snaps which is crashing prices. eCPMs fell 8% YoY meaning advertisers treat $SNAP as surplus reach, not a primary performance engine. Also, tjeir ad environment has no public comments, meaning every ad impression starts cold compared to the high-engagement ecosystems of TikTok or IG. They've effectively become a price-taker in a market dominated by $META + TikTok. And price-takers are rarely ever good investments imo e.g. oil/gas and agriculture. 3 > Cloud costs 2026 cloud costs guided at $1.65B. Hyperscalers like $GOOGL + $AMZN are passing on 5% - 10% price hikes starting mid-2026 due to memory shortages. And infrastructure cost per DAU is climbing ($0.83 - $0.88) cos of $SNAP's pivot to AI-personalized feeds. In SaaS, growth leads to margin expansion through economies of scale. For $SNAP, the more it integrates compute-heavy AI features, the higher its unit costs become. If eCPMs continue to fall while cloud costs rise, the company's "clear path" to 60% gross margins is a fantasy. 4 > Regulatory black swan The EU Digital Services Act probe (Mar 2026) is a terminal risk. Allegations of grooming, dark patterns and illegal product sales to minors. In the US, the Lemmon v. Snap ruling has stripped the company of immunity r.e. "negligent design" features like Streaks which would obliterate the $SNAP's utility overnight. I have asked nearly 20 people why they still use $SNAP - all said because they didn't want their streaks to vanish.....(touch grass pls). Anyway, the DSA allows for fines of up to 6% of global rev. With over 200 lawsuits pending in the US, the legal liability could exceed $SNAP's current cash reserves of $2.9B, creating a black swan liquidity crisis. Genuinely, the main bull case I see is $SNAP using AI better to cut costs to boost earnings naturally. Doubt they can use AI to make a product that'll compete with IG or TikTok at this point, they're too far gone.

@mitch_summers @ParadisLabs Snap is following the TikTok/Instagram playbook by moving away from curated "Lagacy Shows" toward individual "Stars." They are becoming a Spotlight-first platform. This transformation is good for everyone, but short-term painful for show creators like @mitch_summers

Great analysis. If you wanna know how Snap’s doing, I can tell you because I’m a snap show producer. Shows used to generate so much revenue for both producers and snap. They took 50% of top line rev (in line with YT/FB) until 2024 when it went to 70/30. Snap takes 70%. Killer many creators and show producers. They’ve pivoted from shows which used to generate a ton to snap stars with midrolls. Not sure how well those are doing, but the show rev has dropped from 6 figure months (per show) post cut with snap, to let’s just say much much less. Soon, all shows and snap stars will transition from dollars to “crystals” which you can exchange for dollars. This is happening now. From what I hear revenue drops once this happens even further.

The US alone needs to triple their invest in power grids by 2030

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COMPLETE CATALYST & SIGNAL TIMELINE April 2026 → November 2026 open.substack.com/pub/realequal/…

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Solar stocks rally 3-5 months BEFORE expected Dem wins, not after. 2020: TAN +150% pre-election. 2026: Dems lead midterm odds for the first time. Schumer just dropped an IRA restoration plan. History says the move starts this summer. $TAN $ENPH $FSLR

@aleabitoreddit The Same old jewish usury system that has been robbing people for ages.

You’re witnessing hypocrisy in plain sight with Yields + Clarity Act. Banks say there’s a pathway to apply for a banking license but behind the scenes… But these same banks are the ones lobbying behind the board to prevent any crypto related companies from actually getting it. Just look at what happened Custodia bank. And all the crypto firms applying for banking charters now… It’s the equivalent of saying “just apply for New York bitlicense” while they been stalling applications for half a decade. This is set in place so banks ban competition so they can continue robbing retail off interest rate spread. Not to “safeguard” customer funds. Banks telling retail users otherwise are lying to your face. We’re about to witness one of the most destructive bills to crypto be passed from Bank lobbying

@aleabitoreddit Among all of them $SNAP is extremely cheap with almost 1 Bln. Monthly users mostly youth 14-30 y.o. The worlds youth is around 2 bln, so you basically paying 7.5 bln for half of the future generation!

Are we not using social media anymore? $SNAP down -50.6% YTD $RDDT down -44.6% YTD $PINS down -32.2% YTD $META down -26.35% 6M Companies like Snapchat with excessive SBC makes sense… Yeah there’s bear cases around Meta capex but it’s growing forward revs 30-33% Y/Y round ~17 fwd p/e so that spend is definitely delivering ROI. But at this point the selloff looks way overblown especially with Reddit with fwd ev/fcf: ~24x; 91% gross margins, 52% growth? Everyone’s hyper focusing around “AI” disruption but if anything, it makes these social media companies more lean/profitable. I’m a buyer here. But a confused one.