ChilyVily

Pretty pessimistic overall, TBH.

@ContrarianCurse Shale oil is even better and scarier analogue

$PYPL is a scary analog for Software Market long ago sensed the competitive disruption to the business (mostly via take rate compression). Stock peaked in 21 (fun fact MC was above MA at one point), now down -85% You know when earnings peaked? Last year. This year flat

@PAstynome @LFriszt It's also quite comical that they somehow claim "Latinos are culturally close" when Bad Bunny specifically refused to even sing in English during Superbowl. Makes Turks in Germany a model minority in comparison

@PAstynome @LFriszt All of this boils down to Jewish American insecurities about "Islamists" I think

The psychosis is especially extreme because it's now a mainstream talking point among them that 56% America needs to "seize" nukes from the UK and France because they have some bizarre notion that their government and military leadership are now majority Muslim or something.

@adropboxspace Ownage is the mere fact that he has to argue and discuss anything with him

@RussianTrollCap I am not sure a fat slob who cries endlessly about being misgendered as an Arab is owning anyone or has for the last 15 years.

Merely 15 years ago Sonin was a well respected prof from the most prestigious Russian econ masters program. Now he is getting raped on Twitter every day.

....

A point that is sometimes overlooked is that PDEs in physics and economics have a subtle but important difference. When a physicist solves the Schrödinger equation (see my slide below), the potential is given. The coefficients of the equation are part of the problem statement. You pick your grid, refine your mesh, and the equation never changes on you. Better numerics give a better approximation to a fixed target. In economics, this is not the case. Look at the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation for the neoclassical growth model (also slide below). The drift of capital depends on a derivative of the value function, the very object you are trying to solve for. The “coefficients” of the PDE are endogenous to the optimal choices of the agents. This is what @UncertainLars and Sargent referred to as the cross-equation restrictions implied by optimizing behavior. This is what @MahdiKahou and I call the “equilibrium loop”: improving your approximation changes the policy, which changes the dynamics, which changes where in the state space the economy spends its time, which changes where your approximation needs to be accurate. You are not chasing a fixed target with a better net. Moving the net moves the target. This has serious consequences for computation. You cannot just borrow neural network architectures from deep learning in the natural sciences. The loss function comes from equilibrium conditions, not from labeled data. The evaluation points are not given. Instead, they are regenerated each epoch from the current approximation. Ignoring it is why you often get solutions that look good on a training set but fall apart in simulation.

@TheophobosIV @Jengi_Gorkem @heraclius_1642 Lazs are in fact genetically very close to standard Georgians and also quite close to Armenians. Same can bot be said about Pontic Greeks who cluster with Anatolian and Caucasian groups far from mainland "true" Greeks. See this PCA plot for example:

@Jengi_Gorkem @heraclius_1642 Okay can you target laz to other Georgians please? You will refute yourself. Only Christian ones came to Greece. The majority are devshirme Islamised stay there. Because they become turkish= muslim.

Nothing is more disgusting than Turks erasing native heritage and claiming it as their own 'Turkic people' dance. What shameless, despicable poeple! It’s literally the Pontic Greek dance χορός (khorós)

Evergreen. @acczibit had a better read on what would be Israel's internal and foreign political trajectory than 99.9% of polisci pundits.

@BankerWeimar LatAm style "socialism" obviously

Hopefully hardline right-wing isolationist radicalism 🤞

You have "ex"-CIA deepstaters posting this. Joever for US in Pacific

@nachkari Good news for Kazakhstan and maybe Azerbaijan. Not bad for Turkey (Israel won't have resources ro go for them for a long while). Not bad for Armenia cause Iran is an important security guarantor

Ok enough fun with Seedance #Oil #Energy

the current fear is is that AI homogenizes culture and turns humans into passive consumers one counterpoint: in Go, human play showed very little improvement from 1950 to 2016 until alphago beat lee sedol - then human decision quality jumped. players started developing moves that were distinct both from previous human moves and from the novel moves introduced by machine intelligence this seems more likely to me - fun times ahead

@spandrell4 @eugyppius1 The issue is with the GCC state security. If it is threatened long-term there will be an air pocket in US asset demand.

@eugyppius1 Yeah and who cares if Iran charges a toll it's not Americans paying it. He probably likes the precedent

Rationally speaking this ceasefire agreement makes no sense. Iran's and America's conditions are both maximalist and extremely different. But it's Trump we're talking about here. Most of his govt wants the war to stop. Distract him for a week and he'll forget about Iran.

@99999JAM @eugyppius1 @qu3stionevrthg What does "enslaving population to China" even mean? Are you completely off your meds?

@eugyppius1 @qu3stionevrthg Please go enslave what remains of your aging population to china, it would make this all so funny. How’s that sectarian violence going for you? Jesus Christ you Europeans are deluded, at least we can point to our flaws and look away, you denounce your own issues existence…

As you read unending tide of MAGA influencers salivating at idea of killing NATO, recognise that such a move would benefit Russia & China above all, & that US would also be a major loser. Many conspiracy theories are possible as to where this rhetoric really comes from.

@HenricanHenry @cyber7878_ @ChudNarodnik It's even more hillarious given that IEs had actual relatively recent MENA like admixture and were influenced by cultures from Caucasus.

@cyber7878_ @ChudNarodnik I'm talking about actual history, with real people, not random BAPtard capeshit. Also this includes both the hunter gatherers and neolithic farmers. And where do you think the Indo-Europeans came from exactly?

“Reject the Jew on a stick, embrace your ancestors” “Thoth was Melchizedek” “The British Empire was Wotanic” “Plotinus was secretly ordained an Armenian bishop” “Kill yоurself” “Already did”

@spandrell4 Cucked by own wife on air. Amazing

This is worse than the war stuff

@HenricanHenry @UBERSOY1 Jews were objectively quite important in Rome, had very niche and rather marginalized status in Middle Age Europe.

@UBERSOY1 No they are generally indifferent about classical antiquity, or find it interesting, while they have some kind of complex about the Middle Ages and early modern age

The Israelis hate Rome and associate the West with it