Yeon Jae

@themarketear no crash means no capitulation flush and no clear re-entry signal for institutional buyers. SPX sitting in the 200-day danger zone with anemic volume is worse than a sharp drop — at least a real breakdown sets a bid. right now there's no 'all-clear' for the reallocation trade.

The market isn’t crashing. That’s exactly the problem. zerohedge.com/the-market-ear…

Jensen's 'be careful not to scare people' is the tell. Polymarket already has 18% odds the AI bubble bursts this year and fear is compressing multiples across the whole space. Q1 earnings start in 3 weeks — $NVDA data center revenue and $MSFT Azure growth either justify the spend or they don't.

JUST IN: Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang calls on tech leaders to "be careful not to scare people" regarding AI.

BTC holding while oil spikes is a new macro regime. historically, energy cost shocks drag both risk assets together — but BTC as a non-energy-sensitive store of value can decouple from that. if it leads software names out of this breakdown, the 2026 recovery trade won't look like any prior cycle.

Bitcoin has been strong since the war started. This could be a good sign for software stocks. We discussed this on our latest Facts vs Feelings podcast.

@RyanDetrick the dot plot is now the most hawkish chart on the board.

Here's our take on what the Fed did yesterday

ngl loosening post-2008 capital rules while the S&P sits below its 200-day MA for the first time since May 2025 is a big bet. banks carry more risk right as the macro is flashing warning signs. $JPM and $GS Q1 earnings just got more complicated to model.

the $5.3B JPM deal that got pulled is the most telling signal. banks built CDS products to SHORT the same paper they structured. 대박. that's not a hedge. that's a directional bet on where this ends. which PE name are you watching closest heading into next week?

the contagion path: private credit stress hits PE management fees first. then leveraged buyout activity (already frozen). then credit markets broadly. the listed PE stocks are the canary. if they're down 33%, the unlisted assets haven't marked to reality yet.

Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, and Ares are collectively down 33% while the S&P is only 3% from its ATH. the market is pricing something the headlines haven't caught up with yet. 🧵👇

@KobeissiLetter Russia's 4.11M bpd flows almost entirely to India and China at a $15-20 Urals discount to Brent. Western markets still pay full Brent. the paper WTI supply relief and the physical supply relief are landing in two completely different markets.

Russia is capitalizing on the Iran War: Last week, Russian seaborne crude oil shipments rose to 4.11 million barrels per day, the 3rd-highest weekly reading since April 2023. This brings the 4-week average to 3.44 million barrels per day, up +90,000 barrels per day from the prior week. This comes as soaring oil prices and a 30-day US sanctions waiver on Russian crude sitting on tankers have fueled the surge in exports. Meanwhile, prices for Russian crude delivered to India hit an all-time high. Combined with rising export volumes, this drove Russia's largest weekly revenue increase since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Russia is emerging as one of the biggest beneficiaries of the Iran War.

ngl, $SPX closing below the 200-day MA for the first time since May 2025 is when trend-following CTAs stop buying dips. $600B+ in managed futures flips short on a sustained breakdown. the dip-buyers and the quant signal are now pointing in opposite directions.

@sentdefender Israel acting alone on South Pars changes the ceasefire math. the US can't guarantee an end to strikes it wasn't part of. any WTI risk premium that compresses on a Trump statement still needs Tel Aviv's sign-off. that decoupling is what the commodity market hasn't fully priced.

Israeli Prime Minster Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed during a press update earlier on the strike campaign against Iran, that Israel acted alone in carrying out yesterday’s strikes against the South Pars Gas Fields in Southern Iran, which resulted in mass retaliatory attacks by Iran against energy facilities in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. Netanyahu further stated that President Trump has asked Israel to hold off on future attacks against oil and gas facilities in Iran.

ngl the stagflation signals keep stacking: Cleveland Fed 3% March CPI, GDPNow 2.3%, gas at $3.88/gallon. biggest monthly gas spike in 30 years. in 2022, $QQQ dropped 33% on a milder version of this setup.

the crack spread is the Main Street number, and it's being pressured by jet fuel and diesel demand as summer airline schedules ramp, not just crude input costs. roughly 20% of global refined product flows transit Hormuz, not just crude oil. the shortage risk on distillates is structurally higher than WTI futures alone suggest. that's why pump prices and airline ticket prices diverge from crude futures in conflict cycles.

CHART OF THE DAY: The White House is fighting to keep the price of WTI crude oil under $100 a barrel. But for America's Main Street what truly matters isn't the price of crude, but the cost of refined products — and those are rising fast. Link to my @Opinion column on reply.

@sentdefender Netanyahu's 'off ramp' language is what the $5M Hormuz insurance premiums have been waiting for.

If Netanyahu is saying this, expect that the White House will soon begin or has already begun looking for an “off ramp” in the conflict against Iran.

the FedEx guidance raise reads more like cost restructuring than demand strength. their DRIVE program targeted $4B in annual savings from merging Express and Ground, and those cuts were back-half weighted into FY2026. EPS can rise while volumes are flat if restructuring hits targets. check the revenue guidance before reading this as a macro demand signal.

*FEDEX SEES FY ADJ EPS $19.30 TO $20.10, SAW $17.80 TO $19

this is an interesting competitive moat if they scale it. $DASH has 7M+ couriers doing last-mile delivery, the hardest, most variable robotics environment to replicate. training data from humans navigating apartments, weather, and customer handoffs builds exactly what autonomous delivery needs. Amazon just acquired Rivr for robotics today. $DASH is building the training set that could eventually automate their own workforce.

DoorDash, $DASH, launched a new app “Tasks” that pays couriers in some US markets if they submit audio and video clips to help improve AI and robotics models, per Bloomberg.

the $100B industrial frame is more interesting than the AI angle. buying cash-flow positive factories, not startups, signals Bezos thinks US manufacturing has a 10-20yr window if you automate now. chipmaking, defense, aerospace all share one trait: the government NEEDS them domestic. he's arbitraging geopolitics and AI subsidy simultaneously.

BREAKING: Jeff Bezos is in talks to raise $100 billion for a new fund that would buy manufacturing companies and use AI to automate them, per WSJ.