Subu Trade

Since 1957, any random day for $SPX has been higher: • 1 year later: 72.8% of the time (+8.8% average) • 6 months later: 68.9% of the time (+4.3% average) • 3 months later: 66.1% of the time (+2.1% average) • 1 month later: 61.6% of the time (+0.7% average) • 1 week later: 56.7% of the time (+0.2% average) This is the baseline. Without this benchmark, forward-return statistics are meaningless. They tell you nothing about how bullish or bearish a signal really is.

Total Put/Call Ratio jumped to 1.12 The last 10 spikes came close to marking bottoms for $SPX Will this time be different?

@RyanDetrick @Todd_Sohn @MacroCharts Great roundup, Ryan!

Thanks @SubuTrade, @Todd_Sohn, and @MacroCharts

Are things so bad, they are good? We could be getting close to that. In our latest @CarsonResearch blog, I take a look at 11 reasons sentiment could potentially be bullish. carsongroup.com/insights/blog/…

From the AAII Sentiment Survey: Cash Allocations is at 14.19%. Investors are holding the least cash in 4 years. This happened 3 times in the past 20 years: late-2017, Jan 2020, late-2021. Each case preceded significant market volatility and losses for $SPX

From the COT Report: Asset Managers dumped a record amount of S&P 500 futures this week Even more than during the COVID crash

Time to buy Indian stocks? 🇮🇳 India ETF $INDA has seen RECORD outflows over the past 2 weeks. Even more outflows than during the COVID crash.

Gold ETF $IAU just saw record outflows ⬇️

The past 30 trading days have seen massive outflows from financials. $XLF outflows are now on par with May 2022. Even in the middle of the 2022 bear market, $XLF first bounced, before heading lower.

Despite being within 5% an all-time high, the $SPX McClellan Oscillator is extremely oversold. This setup has occurred 10 times previously, and $SPX was higher every single time 1 month later. Average gain over next month was +3.2% h/t @eliant_capital

$VIX is above 30 for the first time since last April. After similar $VIX spikes, $SPX was higher 11 of 12 cases, 1 week - 1 month later.

@Jetsons007 I believe it's the same. Just depends on which platform you prefer: X or Substack.

@SubuTrade What’s the difference between his X subscription and Substack?

@Barchart $SPX forward returns when it closes below 20-week moving average for the first time in over 40 weeks ⬇️

S&P 500 $SPY closed below its 20-week moving average for the first time in 12 months 🚨 The last time led to an 18% dump in the market 📉📉 Going back to 2018, falling below the 20-week has often been a precursor of more weakness to come 👻👀

The past 2 months have seen record outflows in $QQQ (NASDAQ ETF). Even more outflows than at the 2022 bear market bottom.

Oil soared today. Oil ETF $USO saw record Call Volume today.

What a bounce. Pullback next? Software stocks were very Oversold 2 weeks ago and are now rallying. Software etf $IGV RSI went from under 25 to now above 50. Historically, this kind of bounce saw $IGV pullback 80% of the time 3-5 days later.

@pnani456 Yes

@SubuTrade 625C were sold. it was a 575/625/675 call butterfly

Yesterday someone bought $95 million of $MSFT Calls, strike price $575-$625 That's 40%+ higher than where Microsoft is today. Meanwhile, Microsoft and software stocks are trying to bounce from extremely oversold conditions.

Korean stocks are falling, and Chinese tech stocks are already extremely oversold. Chinese tech ETF $KWEB RSI is at 17, the second lowest reading in history. Similar oversold conditions saw $KWEB rally over the next few days and weeks.

Korean stocks are crashing. If only there were signs...

We got the 7th Hindenburg Omen today. These signals are really stacking up...

Energy sector $XLE Short Interest remains near the highest in over a decade. Just as the U.S.-Iran war begins.