Carson Investment Research

Carson Partners offers investment advisory service through CWM, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Carson Partners, a division of CWM, LLC, is a nationwide partnership of advisors. 14600 Branch St, Omaha, NE 68154

If you've been heavily underweight bonds vs. cash, start adding core bonds back opportunistically. Above 4.6% on the 10-year, we'd consider moving more aggressively. But we still favor stocks over bonds, and "diversifying diversifiers" like natural resources and managed futures.

The yield curve is normalizing, and the spread between the 10-year and fed funds is closing in on its long-term average of 1.3%. A steeper curve means investors are getting paid more to take interest rate risk. That makes intermediate and longer bonds more attractive. (3/4)

Yields are on the move. The day before US-Iran hostilities began, the 10-year Treasury yield stood at 3.96%, barely above its multi-year low. It's now at 4.47%, the highest since July 2025. Carson's updated bond view: 🧵 (1/4)

The 10-year yield has climbed nearly 0.50% since the Middle East conflict began, closing at 4.47%. @gilbert3142 updates Carson's bond view: it's time to opportunistically rotate cash into bonds, but diversify your diversifiers👇 carsongroup.com/insights/blog/…

Inflation isn't moderating, it's reaccelerating. Headline CPI is at 3.8% Y/Y, the hottest reading since May 2023. And every "alternative" measure tells the same story. @sonusvarghese breaks it down in 10 charts👇 carsongroup.com/insights/blog/…

Every single way of cutting the data tells the same story: 3M pace hotter than 12M pace, all running above the 2017-2019 trend. Trimmed mean, sticky CPI, core goods, core services. Pick your measure. Inflation is broad and accelerating.

The "it's just housing" excuse doesn't work either. Core services ex-shelter are up 3.4% Y/Y, running at 4.0% annualized over the last 3 months. Pre-pandemic, this category averaged 2.1%. (6/7)

Inflation is elevated no matter how you slice it. Headline CPI: +7.3% 3M annualized, 3.8% Y/Y, highest since May '23. Core, sticky, trimmed mean, all running hot, all moving the wrong way. 🧵 (1/7)

Consumer sentiment just hit its lowest level ever. For some, that's a reason to sell. History says otherwise: stocks tend to do far better in the year following extreme low sentiment than after extreme highs.

With stocks at all-time highs, only 38.3% of AAII survey respondents are bullish. That's barely above the historical average. If investors were euphoric, this would be a warning. They're not. From a contrarian standpoint, this is actually encouraging. (7/8)

The S&P 500 has been on a six-week streak, gaining more than 16%, the second-best such streak ever. Looking at the nine prior instances in which stocks were up at least 10% over six weeks, stocks were higher a year later 88.9% of the time, averaging +17.1%. 🧵 (1/8)