Carson Investment Research

This 👇 🔥🔥🔥 Plus the fact that it was a total blast of a conversation 🙏

From here it accelerates. Next week is the busiest of the season for S&P 500 reporters, and megacap tech lands in late July. That's when we learn if the strength beyond the banks is real.

Strip out Micron and NVIDIA, and that 24.7% drops to 16.8%: two names still drive roughly a third of the growth. And the market isn't rewarding it. Beats have averaged a 0.1% dip; misses a 9% drop.

Q2 earnings are off to a strong start. With 10% of the S&P 500 in, blended growth is running 24.7%, already ahead of the 23.2% analysts expected coming into the quarter. And the banks led the way. Our week 2 check-in 🧵 carsongroup.com/insights/blog/…

None of this means things are perfect. But the data keeps saying the economy is in better shape than the mood suggests. Don't worry, be happy. carsongroup.com/insights/blog/…

The 'shrinking middle class' is real, but not the way it's framed. Since 1979, families that are poor or near-poor fell from about 30% to under 19%, while the upper-middle class rose from about 10% to over 31%. People are moving up.

The headlines are relentlessly negative. But @RyanDetrick has been tracking a few under-the-radar signals that say things are a lot better than we keep hearing. Don't worry, be happy 🧵 carsongroup.com/insights/blog/…

Big picture: the AI wave is now both a market story and a macro one, and we expect it to carry the bull market into year five. carsongroup.com/insights/blog/…

Three: private markets are quietly inside public profits. In Q1, over half of Alphabet's and Amazon's GAAP earnings came from marking up private AI stakes like Anthropic and OpenAI. Watch whether that share grows.

Earnings season is here, and @sonusvarghese is watching three things, all tied to whether the AI wave keeps powering profits. Carson just raised its 2026 S&P 500 return estimate to 15-18% 🧵 carsongroup.com/insights/blog/…