The Edge Street

🚨 The $SPX just posted its best month since November 2020 in April. Up over 10% in a single month through an active war, oil above $100, inflation rising and consumer sentiment at a new low. Here is what that tells you about markets. The headlines describe the world as it feels. The market prices the world as it will be. These two things are almost never the same at the same time. The investors who sold on how it felt in April missed the best monthly return in five years. The ones who held focused on what the market was actually pricing. Feelings are not a strategy.

🚨 $NU Nu Holdings just quietly crossed 110 million customers. For context. $JPM JPMorgan Chase, one of the most powerful banks in the world, took over 150 years to build a customer base of similar scale. Nu did it in 12. Here is what most people miss about this business. Nu started as a Brazilian credit card with no fees and a phone app. It is now a full financial services platform. Credit. Insurance. Investment products. A bank account. All through a single app. 110 million customers in Latin America. Average age of 33. Largely unbanked before Nu arrived. The TAM is enormous. $SQ Square and $PYPL PayPal spent years trying to crack emerging markets. Nu was built for it from day one. The stock is still trading at a fraction of what a US fintech with this growth profile would command. That gap tends to close eventually.

META is the more confusing one. 33% revenue growth, cheapest of the mag7 on forward PE, and it's lagging everything else on the year. The market is still punishing the capex raise. At some point the revenue growth just becomes too obvious to ignore. MSFT I'd give more time. Azure is solid but nothing is standing out enough to force a re-rating right now. META first. Then MSFT follows when enterprise AI spend starts showing up more clearly in the numbers.

$MSFT and $META holders watching $AMZN, $GOOGL, $NVDA, and even $AAPL rip to fresh ATHs 🚀 Will $MSFT and $META catch a bid soon?

Vertical integration in quantum is actually a big deal. Every other quantum company is dependent on third party fabrication. Owning a domestic chip factory removes that dependency and gives them control over the supply chain at exactly the moment the US government is throwing money at domestic semiconductor capacity. Not a name I'd chase at $55 but the strategic logic of the SkyWater deal is genuinely interesting.

$IONQ is flying past $55 today after SkyWater shareholders approved the company’s sale to IonQ. The deal could make IonQ the only U.S. quantum company with its own American chip factory.

🚨 $CEG Constellation Energy just reported. Here’s what actually matters. Adjusted EPS: $2.74 vs $2.56 expected. Beat. GAAP EPS: $4.49. Full year guidance affirmed at $11 to $12 per share. Operating cash flow: $425 million. Up from $107 million a year ago. Nearly 4x. The Calpine acquisition completed in January just added enormous scale to the business overnight. But here’s the line that tells the real story. Net metering application approved for co-location of a data centre at their Freestone site. That means a hyperscaler is building a data centre directly next to a Constellation power plant. On site nuclear power. No grid dependency. No transmission loss. This is the future of AI infrastructure power. $MSFT Microsoft already signed a 20-year nuclear deal with Constellation. Google signed for 500 megawatts of new nuclear capacity. The data centres need power that never stops. Nuclear is the only answer at scale. $CEG is down 13% in 2026 while the rest of the AI infrastructure trade hits records. Tonight’s numbers just confirmed the thesis is intact. That gap between the stock price and the business reality tends to close fast. 🤝

The energy bottleneck thesis is real but the execution matters here. HUT 8 is making the same pivot as IREN and CIFR, converting mining infrastructure into AI data center capacity. The question is always which companies actually deliver the contracts vs which ones just tell the story. Leopold’s track record on SNDK and IREN makes his HUT position worth paying attention to. He doesn’t seem to get these wrong. 👀

A 25 year old turned $225M into $5.5B in 12 months. He’s quietly buying $HUT every single quarter. Here’s why I’m paying attention 👇 Leopold Aschenbrenner former OpenAI researcher runs Situational Awareness LP. His reason? “AI will be the largest infrastructure buildout in human history. Energy is the bottleneck.” Hut 8 owns the energy. 🔋 Stock up 604% in 12 months. 📈 Are you watching? 👀 Not financial advice. DYOR.

🚨 APPLE JUST ENDED ITS TOTAL DEPENDENCE ON TAIWAN. THE IMPLICATIONS ARE BIGGER THAN ANYONE IS REPORTING. Apple and Intel have reached a preliminary deal for Intel to manufacture chips for Apple devices. Talks ran for over a year. Intel surged 15% on the news. The headline is Intel winning a contract. The real story is what Apple is telling you about geopolitical risk. $AAPL ships over 200 million iPhones a year. Every single advanced chip in every single one of them is made by $TSM in Taiwan. One military incident in the Taiwan Strait and Apple's entire supply chain stops. Apple is now diversifying. Intel gets a piece. Samsung is reportedly in talks too. The US government — Intel's largest shareholder — played a direct role in making this deal happen. This isn't just a chip contract. It's the world's most valuable company quietly building a fortress around its supply chain because it knows what the next decade of geopolitics looks like. The companies that survive the next 20 years aren't just technologically dominant. They're geopolitically resilient. $AAPL just proved it understands the difference.

Three open market purchases totalling more than his annual salary. Last time he did this the stock went 5x in 15 months. He sees the loan book, the deposit growth, the member numbers every single day. People keep waiting for a catalyst. The CEO buying this aggressively usually is the catalyst.

$SOFI CEO Anthony Noto has made three open-market purchases this year, buying $1.75 million worth of shares. His base salary is $1 million. The last time he bought before this was in July 2024. The stock then made 5x in 15 months. Probably nothing..

🚨 OIL JUST CROSSED $100 A BARREL. HERE’S THE CHAIN REACTION HITTING YOUR PORTFOLIO RIGHT NOW. Trump rejected Iran’s peace counterproposal overnight. “TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE” were his exact words. Brent crude immediately jumped above $105. Here’s the chain this sets off. Oil above $100 → energy costs rise for every airline, retailer, manufacturer on the planet. Energy costs rise → margins get squeezed. Margins squeezed → earnings estimates revised down. Estimates revised down → stocks reprice lower. Iran vowed it will “never bow.” Netanyahu warned the conflict is “not over.” Last week markets were celebrating a peace deal rumour. This morning that rumour is dead. The investors who understood the chain last week are positioned for exactly this moment. The ones who were just following headlines are getting the bill now.

Most people think investing is about picking the right stocks. It is actually about avoiding the wrong decisions. Not panic selling in March 2020 when the market fell 34% in a month. Not sitting in cash in 2023 waiting for the recession that never came. Not selling during the Iran war fears last Monday when the Dow fell 557 points. The $SPX is up 8% since January. Up 40% in 12 months. Six straight weeks of gains. Every single one of those gains was available to anyone who simply did nothing. The best investment strategy most people will ever find is boring, consistent, and requires almost no skill. Buy quality. Hold through the noise. Let time do the work.

2 year payback on $50B of capex is why hyperscalers keep raising their spending guidance every single quarter. When your return on investment is that clear and that fast, the only rational move is to build more. The constraint isn't demand or economics, it's power and physical capacity. That's why IREN, CEG and the power infrastructure plays exist. The bottleneck moved from chips to electricity.

Back-of-envelope numbers for 1 gigawatt data center: All-in Capex: ~$50 bn Enterprise revenue generated: ~$25-30 bn/year Electricity cost: $1-2 bn/year ~2 year payback. The boom is real.

@cmsinvests And the infrastructure buildout hasn't even hit full speed yet. $750B in capex this year alone across just four companies. Most people are watching the application layer. The real money is in the pipes, the power and the memory that everything runs on.

“Why is the stock market rallying so hard?” Because Wall Street finally realizes AI isn’t just some ChatGPT bot writing essays. Most people still don’t understand what’s happening underneath the surface. AI requires an entirely new global infrastructure buildout: • GPUs → $NVDA • Memory/HBM → $MU $SNDK • Servers → $DELL $SMCI • Networking → $ANET • Power demand → $VRT • Cloud hyperscalers → $MSFT $AMZN $GOOGL Trillions of dollars are about to be spent rebuilding the backbone of the internet for AI. And the crazy part? The average person still thinks AI peaked with Grok images…

@calvinfroedge About 89 days of 1% gains to get from 41% to 100% if everything else stays flat. But the more interesting question is what happens at 60%, 70%, 80%. At some point passive index funds mechanically have to keep buying the winners because they're the index.

Here's a brain teaser for you If tech / the AI trade is 41% of global market capitalization today How many days of going up 1% until it's effectively the entire market capitalization? Assume continued concentration of gains (i.e. rest of market flat)

The credit provisions point is the most underappreciated part of the whole thesis. $1.2B in provisions looks scary on a headline basis. But if those loans are pulling millions of first time credit users into the ecosystem and the cohort data shows predictable payback, you're essentially capitalising customer acquisition through the P&L. Amazon did the same thing with Prime. The subscription looked like a cost centre. It turned out to be the stickiest retention mechanism in retail history. MELI is building that same flywheel across a region that's still in the first innings.

One thing I think is fascinating about $MELI is that the financials are becoming harder to understand exactly because the business is becoming stronger strategically. That’s quite the conundrum… A simple marketplace is easy to analyze. You look at GMV growth, margins, advertising revenue, etc. But once you add lending, credit cards, fulfillment, logistics, acquiring, and 1P inventory, the numbers naturally become complex because the business itself becomes more powerful and vertically integrated. I also think investors underestimate how much accounting can hide what is actually happening underneath. Free shipping looks terrible for margins today, but if it permanently changes customer behavior and increases purchase frequency for years, the long term economics can end up being incredible. The same thing applies to credit. Provisions rising from $603m to $1.2b looks scary up 100%, and it should be monitored carefully. But if those loans help pull millions of users deeper into the ecosystem while underwriting remains reasonably disciplined, then part of those “losses” are really customer acquisition costs disguised as credit expenses. Another thing worth thinking about is how different $MELI opportunity is compared to a US ecommerce company. In the US, ecommerce and digital payments are already mature. In large parts of Latin America, many people are still early in adopting online shopping, digital wallets, credit, and banking. That means $MELI is not just fighting for market share. In many cases they are helping create entirely new consumer habits. Those kinds of markets can become much larger than people initially expect because the pie itself keeps expanding. I also think the market sometimes overreacts to margin compression while underreacting to ecosystem strengthening. Warehouses, fulfillment, fintech, acquiring, ads, and credit all reinforce each other. The more products a customer uses, the harder it becomes to leave the platform. That is why $MELI is becoming harder to value. It is no longer just an ecommerce business. It is slowly becoming financial and commerce infrastructure for an entire region. 🌹

Hard to argue with that pick. Three completely different businesses all compounding at the same time. AWS, advertising and retail each big enough to be standalone trillion dollar companies. $GOOGL is also a top pick If i had to choose an alternative. DeepMind, Waymo, TPUs, cloud and the best search moat ever built.

If you could only invest in 1 company for the next 20 years, which would it be? I’ll go first: $AMZN

Growing faster than the index, cheaper than the index, and down on the year while everything else rips. The only reason it's not getting credit is the capex fear. $125-145B in spending and the market is still waiting to see the return. But the return is already showing up in the revenue numbers. 33% growth on a $56B revenue base doesn't happen by accident. Yeah it's becoming obvious.

$META is down over 6% this year, while the S&P 500 is up 8%. Meta Forward P/E: 18.35 S&P 500 Forward P/E: 21.4 Meta projected 3 YR EPS CAGR: 20.5% S&P 500 projected 3 YR EPS CAGR: 15% Is $META becoming obvious at this point?

MU at 0.4x PEG while supplying memory for the biggest compute buildout in history is genuinely hard to explain. NVDA and AVGO both under 1x PEG tells you the growth is still outpacing the valuation expansion. That's not what expensive looks like. INTC at 2.8x after a 500% run is the one that actually deserves scrutiny now.

SEMICONDUCTOR STOCKS BY PEG RATIO PEG < 1 usually means mispriced growth PEG > 2 starts to push into the danger zone Here’s how they stack up: • $INTC ~2.8x • $LRCX ~2.0x • $KLAC ~2.0x • $AMAT ~2.0x • $ASML ~1.7x • $ALAB ~1.6x • $ARM ~1.5x • $ANET ~1.5x • $LITE ~1.3x • $TSM ~1.1x • $CRDO ~1.0x • $NVDA ~1.0x • $COHR ~0.9x • $AVGO ~0.9x • $AMD ~0.7x • $SNDK ~0.7x • $MRVL ~0.7x • $AAOI ~0.6x • $ON ~0.5x • $MU ~0.4x

🚨 WARREN BUFFETT STEPPED DOWN AS BERKSHIRE CEO AFTER 60 YEARS. He didn't time the market. He didn't trade options. He didn't chase the hottest sector. He bought great businesses at fair prices. He held them through crashes, corrections, wars, recessions, and pandemics. And he let time do the work. $10,000 invested in Berkshire when he took over in 1965 — worth over $350 million today. The most powerful investment strategy in history isn't complicated. It's just very hard to be patient enough to execute it.

$136B into money markets the same week stocks hit all time highs. That's not retail panic selling. That's institutions taking chips off the table after a 17% rally in 30 days and parking cash somewhere it earns 5%. The market can keep going up while this happens. But when that much capital is sitting on the sidelines, it tells you conviction in the rally isn't unanimous.

BREAKING: Money market funds posted +$136 billion in inflows last week, the largest weekly intake since January 2026. This is also the 2nd-largest weekly inflow since the beginning of 2025. This follows -$175 billion in outflows in the preceding week, the largest weekly withdrawal on record. As a result, the 4-week average of outflows stands at -$45 billion, the 2nd-largest on record. Meanwhile, investors allocated +$25.9 billion to bonds last week, with Investment-Grade bonds alone attracting +$16.4 billion, the largest weekly intake since January 2026. Investors are shifting capital after a historic run.

CPI on Tuesday is the one that matters most right now. Sticky inflation kills the rate cut narrative completely and the market is already pricing in barely any cuts this year. A hot print and yields spike, growth stocks get hit. Big week. Everyone's been ignoring macro while semis rip. Tuesday might force them to pay attention again.

Key Events This Week: 1. April Existing Home Sales data - Monday 2. April CPI Inflation data - Tuesday 3. April PPI Inflation data - Wednesday 4. OPEC Monthly Report - Wednesday 5. April Retail Sales data - Thursday 6. April Industrial Production data - Friday More crucial inflation data is ahead of us.