The(REAL)IntelFrog

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The(REAL)IntelFrog

The(REAL)IntelFrog

@TheIntelFrogbu

Backup to @TheIntelFrog - AvGeek and OSINT enthusiast | Providing real-time updates on military aircraft movements and breaking events

BeeTwo, USA شامل ہوئے Mayıs 2026
187 فالونگ7.2K فالوورز
The(REAL)IntelFrog
The(REAL)IntelFrog@TheIntelFrogbu·
@Bannedforself @TRex606 The CENTCOM statement that clearly says the ships were "attempting to pull into an Iranian port" and were prevented from entering Iran. Reality is that these vessels had entered the anchorage for the port and set anchor, in Iran.
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Hobbes the Cat
Hobbes the Cat@Bannedforself·
@TheIntelFrogbu @TRex606 If they are disabled, I think you can consider that as "enforcing the blockade." "We snuck past! You can't attack us now!" sounds like the General Belgrano whining about exclusion zones.
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The(REAL)IntelFrog
The(REAL)IntelFrog@TheIntelFrogbu·
The tankers hit yesterday were in the anchorage for the port of Jask, in line with my analysis that the ships were stationary when they were struck. Not only did they break through the blockade, they made it to an anchorage just east of the Strait of Hormuz, 150nm+ past the blockade line.
OSINTtechnical@Osinttechnical

Today’s Sentinel-2 satellite pass revealed multiple oil tankers hit and burning off the Iranian port of Jask. Seen here, the Iranian tanker Sevda, hit by an American bomb, continues to burn fiercely at her stern.

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The(REAL)IntelFrog
The(REAL)IntelFrog@TheIntelFrogbu·
@TRex606 SEA STAR III was in the Malacca Strait on the 7th. SEVDA was last seen in the same area on the 11th. It's a 6 day sail to their current position from the Malacca Strait. The blockade went into effect on the 13th.
The(REAL)IntelFrog tweet mediaThe(REAL)IntelFrog tweet media
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TFu
TFu@TRex606·
@TheIntelFrogbu Did they really break through the blockade though?
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The(REAL)IntelFrog
The(REAL)IntelFrog@TheIntelFrogbu·
@mdburnell All I've got to say is if we're going to enter Houthi levels of propaganda, we need to up our videography game.
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Matt Burnell
Matt Burnell@mdburnell·
@TheIntelFrogbu Yep. That video was such a huge red flag. Needless destruction for no other reason than acting like something was being accomplished. Could have easily been boarded, seized, and either held or sailed out. Hell, seize it and use it as another bargaining chip.
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free bro
free bro@IIIIlllIlIIlllI·
@TheIntelFrogbu any way the US can secure any type of "victory" in this war?
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The(REAL)IntelFrog
The(REAL)IntelFrog@TheIntelFrogbu·
@Quip_Pro_Quo_ It's real. 50+ vessels have been redirected so far. But it's not as bulletproof as they're letting on.
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MY Take
MY Take@Quip_Pro_Quo_·
@TheIntelFrogbu So you’re saying that the blockade is not entirely real?
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The(REAL)IntelFrog
The(REAL)IntelFrog@TheIntelFrogbu·
The biggest take away is the reduction in assistance disaster survivors will receive and reduction in the number of people who are eligible for that assistance. Under current regulations, survivors can receive up to $44,800 for housing assistance and $44,800 for other needs assistance and is available to anyone with uninsured damage in a given disaster zone. Under the new recommendation, disaster aid will only be available if your home has been destroyed and will be capped at 15% of the local jurisdictions assessed valuation of your home, up to $150,000 for a $1,000,000 home.
The(REAL)IntelFrog@TheIntelFrogbu

x.com/i/article/2052…

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The(REAL)IntelFrog
The(REAL)IntelFrog@TheIntelFrogbu·
@TheMakerPatrick 12 is not many, considering 6 are dedicated to protecting the carriers. Of the other 6, 2 are probably in various stages of replenishment leaving only 4 available.
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Maker Patrick
Maker Patrick@TheMakerPatrick·
@TheIntelFrogbu Sure, but that's better than going back to homebase. There are many DDGs in theater. I would suspect very few TLAMs on any DDGs that have recently reloaded The real limitation is that DDGs are doing so many roles. Blockade enforcement is better done by Frigates, but we have none
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The(REAL)IntelFrog
The(REAL)IntelFrog@TheIntelFrogbu·
One limiting factor in any potential US Navy escort operation is the number and type of munitions expended during each run. An Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyer has 90-96 vertical launch cells. Typical loadouts are roughly 1/3 each air defense, land strike and self defense/anti submarine (adjusted based on mission). These cells can not, yet, be reliably reloaded while at sea, so once the ship hits a critical level, they must disengage and return to port. Until Operation EPIC FURY, Naval Support Activity Bahrain was the prime Middle Eastern location for VLS cell restock. Now, ships will have to sail to Oman or Saudi Arabia in order to be restocked.
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Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The sheer scale required to protect global trade is reaching a breaking point. Shipping expert Sal Mercogliano points out that the "intricate" effort to escort just two ships involved Navy reservists, Marines, and Apache helicopters. If it takes an entire carrier strike group to move two vessels, the project does nothing to solve the problem of 1,600 commercial ships being stranded in the Persian Gulf. @MercoglianoS

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The(REAL)IntelFrog
The(REAL)IntelFrog@TheIntelFrogbu·
@TheMakerPatrick Bahrain isn't a viable option for VLS reloading at this time. Neither are Oman or apparently Saudi Arabia as all are within Iranian attack capabilities. DDGs are having to go 3,500nm away to Diego Garcia to replenish.
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Maker Patrick
Maker Patrick@TheMakerPatrick·
@TheIntelFrogbu You probably don't know all of the capabilities and locations to reload VLS, and that's a pretty good thing. But just using Bahrain in this scenario, ships can go into the SAG full, reload in Bahrain, and then leave full. Two transits fully armed.
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NSX or 928 S4
NSX or 928 S4@Muggs00454738·
@TheIntelFrogbu Does anyone know where the marine expeditionary force which left San Diego, CA, 2 months ago is now?
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The(REAL)IntelFrog
The(REAL)IntelFrog@TheIntelFrogbu·
It's all fun and games until the OCEAN TRADER shows up.
MT Anderson@MT_Anderson

🚨SOC Mothership at Diego Garcia🚨 Sentinel 2 from May 7 reveals a highly significant arrival at NSF Diego Garcia 🔸Likely spot of Spec Ops Command (SOC) mothership, MV Ocean Trader, safely anchored inside the atoll. 🔸USNS Pililaau & an Arleigh Burke also in the lagoon. My last definitive spot was way back in Nov 2025 off the coast of Puerto Rico. I had a potential sighting on Apr 13 2026 in the Med approaching the Suez Canal. This spot in the Indian Ocean strongly validates that earlier track. When the Ocean Trader slides into theatre—much like what we saw with previous posturing around Venezuela—more complex operations tend to follow. Does her arrival indicate SOCOM elements are actively gearing up for the next phase? @sentdefender

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The(REAL)IntelFrog
The(REAL)IntelFrog@TheIntelFrogbu·
@star_excelsior The water around the ship is completely still. The ship is moving at the same speed as the water around it. I don't know if you've ever been on the water or to a beach, but the wind is almost never calm.
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Star Excelsior
Star Excelsior@star_excelsior·
@TheIntelFrogbu Either the wind is really high there or the ships are moving. The wakes aren’t that big but the direction the smoke is moving doesn’t lie.
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The(REAL)IntelFrog
The(REAL)IntelFrog@TheIntelFrogbu·
@maxxxmoin Yeah, not sure at all aside from the fact that neither vessel was moving at the time they were struck. The SEA STAR III had no signs of life before or after the strike.
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Max Moin
Max Moin@maxxxmoin·
@TheIntelFrogbu Maybe they didnt move to a desired path/along a desired path? Quite obvious they werent evading the blockade when attacked
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The(REAL)IntelFrog
The(REAL)IntelFrog@TheIntelFrogbu·
@justaguyactual1 Ensuring your paperwork is completed properly and accurately really speeds things up. Smaller jurisdictions tend to get things a little quicker because they don't have the expenses that a larger one does.
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justaguy
justaguy@justaguyactual1·
@TheIntelFrogbu Yeah I’ve heard different experiences, ours was pretty smooth and received our reimbursements pretty quick even through the shutdowns. I know a few counties over they are still trying to get reimbursements from the same event we had.
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The(REAL)IntelFrog
The(REAL)IntelFrog@TheIntelFrogbu·
Ok... This is going to take some digesting. There are some VERY good ideas that have been necessary for a long time coming, but they're also recommending fundamental changes that will reduce both the number of folks eligible and the amount of federal assistance. Poll 👇👇👇
The(REAL)IntelFrog@TheIntelFrogbu

The FEMA Review Council has released its final report. It recommends reforming and bolstering the agency in a transformation. Several recommendations will require congressional action. I'll break it down more in depth tomorrow.

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دریافت کریں

@Bannedforself @TRex606 @mdburnell @IIIIlllIlIIlllI @Quip_Pro_Quo_ @TheMakerPatrick @elonmusk @BarackObama