TheOpeningMove

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Tomorrow is the deadline. Here are the scenarios... Trump said Tuesday is "Power Plant Day and Bridge Day." Iran said no deal. Something has to give. Here's what could actually happen: Scenario 1: Iran blinks. Tehran accepts some version of a ceasefire, perhaps reopening Hormuz partially or allowing monitored shipping. Trump declares victory. The most optimistic outcome but the least likely given U.S. intelligence says Iran believes it has the upper hand and doesn't trust Washington at all. Scenario 2: Trump finds a reason to delay again. He's already pushed this deadline multiple times. Iran offers a small concession, maybe more Pakistani tankers through Hormuz, and Trump takes it as a sign of progress. Both sides may even quietly agree on this. It buys time without either side losing face. Scenario 3: Trump declares victory and walks away. He already told aides he'd leave with Hormuz closed. He could frame the military damage as mission accomplished, claim the new regime is "more reasonable," and punt Hormuz to an international coalition. Iran keeps the Strait. Trump keeps the narrative. The world cleans up the mess. Scenario 4: Trump goes all in. He's threatened this repeatedly and delayed every time. But the rescue mission may have emboldened him. Former aides say his confidence in his own judgment has grown. If he strikes power plants, 85 million Iranians lose electricity. Iran's response would likely be the most devastating of the entire war: desalination plants, Bab el-Mandeb, every bridge on their published target list. A retired CENTCOM commander thinks pressure will eventually work. U.S. and allied intelligence say the opposite: the new Supreme Leader is harder line than his father, and the IRGC is gaining authority, not losing it. Over a month in, Trump is still asking the same question he asked on day one. Why haven't they just given in? Tomorrow we find out what happens when that question still has no answer. Source: NYT, WSJ

Spoke with President Trump. He told me the conflict should be over in days, not weeks but if no deal is made he’s blowing up the whole country with “very little” off the table. "If happens, it happens. And if it doesn't, we're blowing up the whole country,” he said. I asked if there’s anything off limits. “Very little,” he said.