Titus Ching

High praise from an absolute legend of the game. The distance between predicting the future and executing the trade is the widest chasm in finance. It is purely psychological. It may be the hardest pursuit there is. Bridging that gap is the lifelong work.

U.S. HAS AN AIRCRAFT CARRIER, MULTIPLE GUIDED-MISSILE DESTROYERS, AN AMPHIBIOUS ASSAULT SHIP AND SEVERAL OTHER WARSHIPS IN THE MIDDLE EAST, ACCORDING TO NAVY AND CENTRAL COMMAND OFFICIALS. THESE SHIPS HAVE THE ABILITY TO LAUNCH HELICOPTERS THAT SUPPORT BOARDING OPERATIONS, AND SOME ARE CAPABLE OF MARSHALLING COMMERCIAL VESSELS TO SPECIFIC AREAS TO HOLD THEM IN PLACE. - WSJ

—CW16 WEEKLY MACRO CONTEXT— The fog of ceasefire still persists...but price action is always KING. Base case remains: Either massively under-priced left-side tail risk or back to the golden 2020s. Current price action dictates we assume the latter but remain flexible. The WTI to Crude Oil spread tells a story of higher demand in the former as an alternative to the latter. Long Edge; - There are real BUT localised issues in the Private Credit markets that do not warrant an undervaluation of the Financial sector as a whole — regional banks remain strong. - Q1 Earnings kicking off this week should confirm positive productivity and growth driven by the AI/tech narrative. - A weaker dollar is beneficial for both Trump admin as well as emerging markets (who ironically need it for commodities like oil). Short Edge; - PPI and Prices Paid this week likely to confirm inflating inflationary pressures. - Energy inflation has yet to impact the job market or fully transition its effect onto everyday consumers. - 1000s of tankers stuck in the gulf only compound the growing energy issue.

U.S. Vice President JD Vance is now en route back to Washington following unsuccessful trilateral talks between the U.S., Pakistan, and Iran.

Two of the measures mutually agreed upon between the parties have yet to be implemented: a ceasefire in Lebanon and the release of Iran’s blocked assets prior to the commencement of negotiations. These two matters must be fulfilled before negotiations begin.

Today a huge US military airlift continued to the Middle East despite a ceasefire...

This is the largest number of Israeli airstrikes at once on Beirut since the beginning of the war. #Lebanon

IRANIAN PARLIAMENT AND SPOKESPERSON OF THE NATIONAL SECURITY AND FOREIGN POLICY COMMISSION : IN RESPONSE TO THE SAVAGE ZIONIST AGGRESSION AGAINST LEBANON, THE PASSAGE OF SHIPS IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ MUST BE HALTED RIGHT NOW, AND WITH A HEAVY AND DECISIVE STRIKE, WE MUST PREVENT THE RABID DOGS AND THE CANCEROUS TUMOR OF THE REGION FROM THEIR SABOTAGE, || THE LEBANESE SACRIFICED THEIR LIVES FOR US, AND WE MUST NOT LEAVE THEM ALONE FOR A MOMENT || CEASEFIRE EITHER ON ALL FRONTS OR ON NO FRONTS.

Chaos in Beirut as Israel carries out a wave of airstrikes across the country hitting what it said were more than 100 targets in ten minutes.

IRAN ARMED FORCES SAY U.S. WOULD BE TREATED AS PARTY TO ANY ISRAELI ATTACK AND FACE DECISIVE RESPONSE

For a ceasefire, the fire does not seem to be ceasing. The UAE and Kuwait are under attack, and Iran says it is under attack too. Beyond the ceasefire itself, the bigger question is that the plan still looks unclear when it comes to what follows, assuming the ceasefire actually holds.

—CW15 WEEKLY MACRO CONTEXT— Base Case: War continues/escalates and SoH remains closed. Two evolving narratives: 1. Extremely under-priced left-side tail risk (think COVID) resulting in hyperinflation and eventual demand destruction/stagflationary shock. 2. Contrarian view: - Market has been very strong on no real news. Looking for a bottom if market rises on bad news i.e. US boots on the ground in Iran. - Bull-bear sentiment ratio giving us a contrarian signal too. - Forward PE levels of tech (20.7) converging with S&P500 (19.9), under-representing the explosive impact of AI. Long Edge; - Net Liquidity is rising steadily. The stage is set for a melt-up in the markets, once a sentimental consensus on the war is achieved. - Growth remains very strong, as does the consumer. Evidenced by forward earnings estimates and Redbook. Short Edge; - Inflation is hot. We have been tracking the breakout of inflation since mid-late last year (below). Now it is has completely runaway due to rising core inflation (energy) costs. - Volatility has not been cooled down since our remark during Christmas'25. This week and in particular the next two days may be decisive, direction wise.

Overnight a massive US airlift of transport aircraft carrying unknown cargo to the Middle East Occurred...

Trump: Remember when I gave Iran ten days to make a deal or open up the Hormuz Strait. Time is running out - 48 hours before all Hell will reign down on them - Truth Social

The amount of misinformation and fake-news pivots driving the markets is incredible to witness. Especially if you have been live every NY morning session since the start of the war. Assuming some of the price action is driven by AI/Agentic reactions to headlines it will be fascinating to see how the trader-AI symbiosis/struggle evolves over the next two years. In the end, a trader's psychology will still be key.

This is the 'news' being reffed. note 'post-war' and this presumably is about paying for passage etc

Excellent pivot!

#Agriculture: On 31 March, the @USDA will release two key reports: the U.S. Prospective Plantings and the Quarterly Grain Stocks. Together, they provide the market’s first comprehensive snapshot of acreage intentions and current inventory levels, both critical for assessing the 2026/27 supply outlook. This year’s planting decisions are being made under unusually strained conditions. The Iran war has disrupted energy and fertilizer markets, pushing input costs sharply higher at a time when grain prices remain relatively subdued. As a result, trade estimates point to a reduction in #corn acreage and a sharp drop in spring #wheat plantings, potentially to the lowest level since 1970. #Soybeans, by contrast, are expected to gain acreage as farmers shift away from more input-intensive crops. Compared to corn and wheat, soybeans require less nitrogen-based fertilizer, making them a more attractive option in a high-cost environment. Beyond acreage, the Quarterly Stocks report will be closely watched for signals on demand strength and inventory tightness, particularly after recent price volatility and positioning shifts. Together, these reports could set the tone for grain markets in the months ahead, especially if reduced plantings begin to raise concerns about supply adequacy later in the season.

—CW14 WEEKLY EDGE— The war (oil) still drives the markets. Base Case: UNCHANGED. - Exponential effect as war drags on for heavy energy importing EU, Asia, India, Oceania. - Exponential effect if US boots on the ground OR further targeting of energy/water infrastructure. This week is significant for Economic Data Prints, as this is the first real look on the impact of the war on: - uncertainty, - inflation, and - economic resilience. Long Edge; - Oil, LNG, Coal (substitute), Renewables (substitute). - Energy companies boosted by individual country import/export economics e.g. NG/TTF, CL/BRN. - Agriculture/Grains (as discussed previously). Short Edge; - Oil / Gas prices about to squeeze core inflation across the globe. - All heavy energy importing countries i.e. Germany, Japan, India → Core inflation ↑ → stagflationary shock. - Financials and Private Credit continuing to roll over - an ominous sign.