Tom Perfrement

13/ Key risks to watch: • A structurally weaker housing turnover than history suggests • A genuine erosion of Hemnet’s traffic share (so far, not evident) • Heavy AI investment needed to defend the moat that compresses margins.

12/ On regulation: arguably, if authorities eventually push to reduce agent commission rebates, that likely raises Hemnet’s profitability (less paid out to agents) without threatening the network. Ironically, one of the perceived “risks” could be earnings-accretive.

1/ Hemnet AB ($HEM) – Sweden’s #1 housing portal – appears to be priced today as if its best days are behind it. At ~SEK 170–180 per share, the market is focused on a cyclical hangover and missing the structural story.

@DanW2Capital $SDGR isn’t a quantum-computing bet. But agree that it is largely under the radar. It’s physics-based simulation software + AI is used by all of the top 20 pharmas. NDR of 105%. Software rev is growing at double digits. $401m net cash. $1.0bn EV. Trades on circa 4x EV/rev.

Is $SDGR an undiscovered, left of field way of playing the inflated Quantum run? $1.5b market cap. Drug discovery. Hasn't had the 5-7x runs that the likes of $QUBT and $RGTI have had. I'm open to the idea.

“Big tech CapEx as percentage of EBITDA is now running at 50%-70%, which is similar to AT&T’s 72% at the peak of the 2000 telecom bubble and Exxon’s 65% at the peak of the 2014 energy bubble…” - GQG Partners (Sept, 2025).

the SaaS to AI transition is going to be lot messier and less straightforward than people will admit the CRM to AI CRM trope sounds really nice on paper, but the reality is a lot more complex but because people like digestible narratives, those are the ones that persist 🧵

$XRO's acquisition of Melio is circa 13% of its market cap. Ranks even larger than $WTC's acquisition last month to buy Texas-headquartered competitor e2open (in its biggest ever acquisition). The market for tech M&A definitely seems to be heating up.

For the 1st time in its history, $WDAY (28x Fwd) now trades below $SAP (43x Fwd) and in line with $ORCL (27x Fwd), despite stronger growth and a purer SaaS profile. Could represent an opportunity if Workday’s margins and AI story can start to catch up in the next 24 months?

@StockMarketNerd All of that may be true, however, the risk v reward appears to skew towards the downside. Bull case they maintain 90% share in search on comparable monetisation to legacy search. Bear case their market share drops to sub 50%. It's Open AI's game to win and Alphabet's to lose.

It was pretty difficult to refrain from buying a lot more $GOOGL shares while watching this week's product event. I'm convinced people who say they're losing in AI are just sticking their heads in the sand & ignoring every release. Best models on the planet across major benchmarks. Best output token per cost performance on the planet. Rapid Gemini growth. AI search monetizing on par with legacy search "with more upside." Hello AI & Agent modes. Leading in autonomy. World-class access to data thanks to world-class distribution. Brisk introduction of research into tangible, valuable product use cases. But sure... they're a dinosaur.

@Filapek @JohnWickPencil @Dom94656454 @bardock__95 @wotz_it_worth Thanks for sharing @Filapek & @JohnWickPencil - always good to be reminded of mistakes; it is the best pathway to improvement. This one turned out to be a massive value trap. Happily admit that I was wrong & grateful to have exited a while back with something still on the table.

@JohnWickPencil @TomPerfrement @Dom94656454 @bardock__95 @wotz_it_worth It's funny how your post brings back all the flashbacks from years ago when analysts were being criticised for peddling ill-informed conspiracies and... we know by now they were right. It's one reason why I like this 'game', ultimately, there's no hiding from the truth ;)

RBC Capital slaps a negative on today's Appen $APX result: "Continued pressure on APX given weak CY20 result and CY21 guiding well below RBCe/consensus with the added burden of a weak 1H21 and big 2H skew" #ausbiz #XJO #equities #stockstowatch #investing