Rudi Filapek-Vandyck

Have a great weekend folks...from the team @FNArena Next Week At A Glance - 18-22 May 2026 fnarena.com/index.php/2026…

@79_della Yes, I made good money during the early days post listing but this company has com-ple-te-ly lost its cohesion. The message here is, probably, that no matter how great the fundamentals are underneath a business, bad management can still wreck it. $BAP #XJO #stockinfocus

@Filapek Your darling stock at some point in the past. What a disaster

Citi on Bapcor $BAP: "Downgrade to Sell: All the parts, no fuel" #StockInFocus #XJO #equities #investing

@InnKeeping_ Only very vaguely. I must not have paid proper attention at the time. Also: I tend not to spend too much time on small-cap agri businesses, in particular not when they are troubled ;)

@Filapek Wellard. Remember them ?

Is Bapcor $BAP the absolute Champion in issuing profit downgrades? Who knows of any other ASX-listed company that has done "better" (i.e. worse)? #stockinfocus #XJO #equities #investing

Impact from data centres demand is spreading like a wildfire in 2026... $BHP #stockinfocus #XJO #equities #investing @FNArena

The problem with only looking at the valuation (as most do) is that one tends to miss the fact there are many risks and headwinds currently plaguing the company. @FNArena wrote about it recently. This does not by definition mean there cannot be a good news story on the horizon. What it does mean is that a 'cheap' valuation does not automatically imply the odds are stacked in your favour if you buy in today (or keep holding). As Citi suggested: valuation is not the whole story $CSL #stockinfocus #XJO #equities #investing

@Filapek if CSL can somehow keep eps flat, and scrap div and go all in on buy backs, they can buy their entire company at this p/e. valuation does matter if eps is actually stable going forward. however my experience is stocks with very low p/e, tend to have eps crashes.

Citi's update on $CSL: "Investors have a lot to think about; lower valuation is not everything" #stockinfocus #XJO #equities #investing

RBC Capital on Xero $XRO: "AI disruption fears overshadowed an otherwise solid result with FY26 print beating across most operating metrics as well as guide ahead of consensus. "US segment showing strong growth and the incremental step-up in investment should see the region yield results over time. "Claude-induced selloff dismissed as another market knee-jerk reaction by some, however, we understand the implications for software if aggregators live on top, and adjust our EBIT exit multiple from 15x to 12x. "FY27 guidance quantified and sees FY27/28 EBITDA +0%/+13%. Still seeing value here if Xero delivers, remain Outperform with new $130/share PT." #stockinfocus #XJO #equities #investing

RBC Capital on Tamboran Resources $TBN: "The fiscal 3Q26 earnings served as a recap of the last few months' robust activity that includes a new CEO, equity raise, partner farm-out, and continued development toward first gas sales. "TBN remains catalyst rich including commencement of the SS-3H, -4H and -5H well stimulation program that will help deliver first gas sales around August for the 40 MMcf/d Pilot Project. "There are more eyes on the Beetaloo gas development, especially considering the Middle East conflict that now creates a tighter global LNG market." #stockinfocus #energy #XJO #equities #investing

@bear204no Are they really ever?

@Filapek Did the previous CEO get told of what he was walking into?

@Johnson72638291 Noooooooooo!!!!

@Filapek Wanna go halves in a takeover Rudi?

I'll have a go myself.... Healius $HLS would come close?!

Oooh La La!

RBC Capital on Xero $XRO: "Overall FY26 print was in-line with expectations across operating metrics bar NPAT which suffered from mark-to-market losses related to call option derivatives on their convertible note. "US segment delivered a beat vs. RBCe/Cons across revenue and customers, supported by Melio pro-forma revenue growth of +58% pcp. "FY27 outlook quantifies a revenue and adjusted EBITDA range for the first time, providing additional clarity vs. previous opaque opex/revenue % range, with revenue beating RBCe/Cons +3% respectively and Adjusted EBITDA -1%/+1% vs. RBCe/Cons. "Guidance suggests execution on costs heading in the right direction with implicit assumption of continued improvement on opex/revenue % from 70.5% delivered FY26. "Finally, new custom AI agent builder, XeroForce, announced alongside continued expansion of AI capabilities through partnerships (Claude) and incremental positives, but noting that JAX still remains in beta vs. competitors who have AI in production." #stockinfocus #XJO #equities #investing

Citi on Xero $XRO: "Xero reported adjusted EBITDA of $757 million, up +18% yoy and +1%/+2% ahead of CitiE/VA Consensus. "The beat was driven by lower opex with revenue coming in slightly lower than our forecasts (in-line with consensus). "However, R&D capitalisation % of 46% (incl Melio) was higher than our forecast of 45% for core Xero (we did note forecast R&D separately for Melio). "VA consensus total capex of $424 million is slightly lower than Xero's reported $431 million. NPAT was a miss due to higher than expected interest and higher taxes." #stockinfocus #XJO #equities #investing

RBC Capital on GrainCorp $GNC: "Graincorp (GNC) has delivered a broadly in line 1H26 result and reaffirmed FY26 guidance for underlying EBITDA and underlying NPAT. "However the interim 'core net cash' position looks low at $163m (-$205m/-$130m vs RBCe/Cons) which could weigh on stock valuations. "Looking ahead to the 2026-27 season “Soil moisture profiles are generally favourable across Victoria and southern NSW, while conditions in northern regions are mixed, with further rainfall needed”. "Business transformation on track to deliver “run-rate benefits of $5-10m by the end of FY26." #stockinfocus #XJO #equities #investing

Pay me? C'mon. The point I was making is that a bad performance at the end of the calculation makes it look like the performance has been bad for many years, but that's how the calculations end up. Those calculations do not correspond with how performance was throughout that period. That's all ;)

@Filapek @ThomasStapp1 🤣 how much is Mark / Hyperion paying you? That last screen shot was from 31/3/25. And shock horror, he’s underperforming (what happens when you’re long $GYG.ax). So yeah, at 31/3/26, it’s no.

Oof. 15yrs underperformance. Prob under since inception if you account for turnover and tax consequences. Still collects $15m pa just on this fund tho.

@99Proble @ThomasStapp1 You don't understand; one bad year at the end works its way through into the past much farther than you are now accepting. It's how calculations work. The answer remains a firm yes

@Filapek @ThomasStapp1 No

RBC Capital on WiseTech Global $WTC: "After months of back-and-forth DSV have finally settled on moving over to Tango and confirming their intentions to eventually transition out of CargoWise. "Despite management remaining strategically ambiguous on the timeline - even going so far as to say that their Tango rollout plan has not been internally signed off yet - we understand their resolve to consolidate all of their vendor-based software into a unified in-house platform under the banner of their "Count to One" strategy (One Process, One System). "As highlighted in our recent note, based on industry feedback, our current base case is for migration to take ~5-6 years with an estimated impact to CargoWise of ~$40-50m, most of which should fall through to the bottom line as licencing revenue. "Migration will not be without short-term pain, as DSV are running some middleware on top of Tango and CargoWise to ensure they are synced for incremental new business, which necessitates a productivity drag and introduces inefficiencies like double-entry in the short term. "Tango also confirmed to be currently running ~25% of group volumes." #stockinfocus #XJO #equities #investing