Niel 尼尔

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Niel 尼尔

Niel 尼尔

@TradingNiel

Student of the market. History doesn’t repeat itself but it often rhymes

شامل ہوئے Temmuz 2017
1.2K فالونگ448 فالوورز
Niel 尼尔
Niel 尼尔@TradingNiel·
@AndrewY_SX @SX_Bet Maybe it improves a bit from here now that poly has fees. Think most people just don't know about it.
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Andrew | SX 🦈
Andrew | SX 🦈@AndrewY_SX·
Hit 24k bets in one day for first time ever and now at 2m in last year on @SX_Bet If you're looking for an onchain sports prediction market with no ghost orders and no fees, there's no other option but SX
Andrew | SX 🦈 tweet media
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Niel 尼尔
Niel 尼尔@TradingNiel·
@gvtcontractor That is not the bad part. They don't use toilet paper, they scrape the shit away with their hand.
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Sebastián
Sebastián@gvtcontractor·
Every time I play chess with someone from India I ask them if they poop on the street. About 70% of the time I get a response like this.
Sebastián tweet media
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Gabagool 22 Trading Bot
@holy_moses7 @Polymarket Nice, the rewards can add up! I make way more than that with arbitrage, though. It's pretty wild the kind of edge you can get with a well-tuned bot. I'm pulling consistent profits on those crypto up/down markets.
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Niel 尼尔
Niel 尼尔@TradingNiel·
@EscTTeller @auntieali223 It's a parody... But the real Katja has been toxic as fuck. Had to mute her couldn't take the ragebait anymore
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Niel 尼尔
Niel 尼尔@TradingNiel·
@GTA_Unlimited Considering how many hours of content like even 100 dollar would be dirt dirt cheap. Go 2 times to a movie theater and you spend 100 for maybe few hours of entertainment. This game will last for year. Could cost 300 dollar and would be dirt cheap
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GTA 6 Unlimited
GTA 6 Unlimited@GTA_Unlimited·
$69, $79, or $100 for GTA 6? What are you willing to pay?
GTA 6 Unlimited tweet media
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Rexha 🐸
Rexha 🐸@RexhaRexhaRexha·
Polymarket’s CMO almost leaked insider info to Clavicular before noticing he was wearing a mic "You have to understand bro...Oh hold on" "You almost got me caught."
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Niel 尼尔
Niel 尼尔@TradingNiel·
@securezer0 I think another problem is just that if you do want to do it properly, it takes time and resources to come up with all these markets and then write rules. A crypto exchange for example they only have to put a market up and it stays up, then they charge minimal fees.
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SecureZero 
SecureZero @securezer0·
No one is confident Polymarkets airdrop is going to be significant There’s too much greed + higher fees than Kalshi + adding fees on backdated markets + liq rewards & mm rebate under paid + increasing fee % without warning But yes they’re going to give you $10k airdrop for free Base case we just get a fee rebate Worst case they just airdrop a bunch of sybil wallets from sheer incompetence
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Niel 尼尔
Niel 尼尔@TradingNiel·
@securezer0 Other hand they did give like shitloads of money away for years. It's only now they starting to pull a bait and switch. Impossible to have a 20B valuation without milking the users dry. They valued as a sportsbook basically while exchanges usually are way less profitable
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Niel 尼尔
Niel 尼尔@TradingNiel·
@securezer0 They need to give people a fee reduction if you stake their coin.
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Niel 尼尔
Niel 尼尔@TradingNiel·
@gerry_lts Polls slightly overestimating Western countries and underestimating Eastern in a contest like this. Also fan bubbles.
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gerry
gerry@gerry_lts·
As I said earlier… 👀 This comes from an inside televote poll , it doesn’t matter how, this is the picture right now. The race is wide open, and rehearsals are going to change a lot. Stay tuned. #Eurovision #Televoting #Leaks
gerry tweet media
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Niel 尼尔
Niel 尼尔@TradingNiel·
@GenaTheCroco Why is half of the internet low quality ai slop posts nowadays. We are doomed as a society
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Gena
Gena@GenaTheCroco·
There is a massive rumor that a special needs student posted a slop tweet based on ZSCDAO exact theory. Now is secretly burning his Claude tokens. Look at the stats. Over 5000 tokens. +$2.45 YTD. A perfectly flat PNL line. Humans don't post like this. blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah — blah blah blah blah — blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah. You either learn to copy paste from these bots, or you are reading them. Mute or Block.
ludoonchart@ludoonchart

There is a massive rumor that an MIT quant student built a self-learning bot based on his professor's exact theory. Now it’s secretly running this Polymarket account. Look at the stats. Over 60,000 predictions. +$5.8M YTD. A perfectly straight PnL curve. Humans don't trade like this. I shared the full Oxford lecture before, but watch this specific 4-min simulation. The professor explains the biological glitch that makes retail panic, and shows a graph of algorithms surviving. Notice how the bot's survival graph looks EXACTLY like this account's PnL. You either learn to build these bots, or you are the liquidity for them. Bookmark & Watch.

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gerry
gerry@gerry_lts·
In the next hour, I’ll be dropping a secret televote poll… 👀 Don’t ask how it got to me , but it reflects the current state of the televote right now. Stay tuned. #Eurovision #Poll #Televoting
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Niel 尼尔
Niel 尼尔@TradingNiel·
@bored2boar If you depend on liquidity rewards to make money then you basically have no edge at all.
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Oracle Boar
Oracle Boar@bored2boar·
I stopped my Polymarket bots for a moment. Ghost fills are destroying edge so fast that every bot PnL goes negative before you even notice. V2 update changed nothing. The bug everyone was waiting to get fixed survived the biggest infrastructure overhaul Polymarket has ever shipped. Here is the full situation for anyone running automated strategies right now: The upgrade closed the incrementNonce path. That was the cheap cancellation method costing 0.1 dollars in gas that was draining market makers daily. Gone. Good. But my bots are still getting ghost filled constantly. Because the actual problem was never the nonce mechanic. The attack lives in the time gap between off-chain order matching and on-chain settlement. That gap is identical in V2. Attacker matches your order off-chain. Your system logs a clean fill. Your position opens. Before settlement reaches the chain, they cancel their side silently. Position disappears, capital is stuck, you have no trade. Losing sides settle instantly every time. Winning sides get pulled before they land every time. Run this against a high frequency bot for a few hours and the PnL curve inverts completely. That is exactly what is happening to me right now. However, Polymarket team assured us that this should be fixed soon. And I respect the transparency. But bot builders have been waiting for this fix through multiple update cycles now... Ghost fills are not a minor inconvenience. They are a systematic extraction of capital from anyone running serious strategies on this platform. Pausing until there is a real architecture level fix on the settlement timing. Not a workaround. Not a patch. An actual solution.
Oracle Boar tweet media
Oracle Boar@bored2boar

x.com/i/article/2048…

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