Anshuman Singh

every big IPO in India becomes a national event office WhatsApp groups light up your cab driver has applied your mom is asking how to open a demat account that’s exactly when you should be most careful let’s understand what an IPO actually is a private company deciding to go public meaning they’re selling shares to the public for the first time sounds like an opportunity but ask yourself one question why is the company selling shares right now and not six months ago or two years later companies don’t time IPOs randomly they hire investment bankers whose entire job is to find the best time to sell meaning the time when they can get the highest price the best time for the company to sell is almost always the worst time for you to buy that’s not cynicism that’s just how incentives work the grey market premium trap before listing everyone talks about GMP grey market premium stock trading at 70% premium before it even lists this creates FOMO everyone applies stock lists high retail investors feel validated then over the next 6 to 12 months it quietly bleeds back to fair value sometimes below IPO price the GMP was hype not valuation the data on Indian IPOs is uncomfortable of all mainboard IPOs listed between 2021 and 2023 roughly 40-45% were trading below IPO price within a year the ones that popped on listing day got all the coverage the ones that quietly fell 30-40% nobody wrote about those the allotment system makes it worse when an IPO is oversubscribed which all hyped ones are retail allotment is done by lottery you get shares when demand is highest meaning price is most inflated and you get zero shares in boring IPOs which are often the better investments the system is almost perfectly designed to give you shares when you shouldn’t buy and deny them when you should the people who actually make money on IPOs anchor investors who get in before you HNIs who can afford to apply in multiple lots operators who understand the grey market institutions who flip on listing day before retail even processes what happened by the time the excitement reaches your WhatsApp group the smart money already knows its exit none of this means never apply for an IPO some are genuinely good businesses at fair prices but that judgment requires reading the DRHP understanding the business model checking promoter history comparing valuations to listed peers if your only reason to apply is everyone else is applying that’s not investing that’s just expensive FOMO

every march millions of Indians panic “I need to save tax” “what should I invest in under 80C” and in that panic they make the same mistake their parents made and their parents before them 80C lets you deduct ₹1.5L from your taxable income sounds great it is great the problem is not the section the problem is what people buy because of it the most popular 80C products in India LIC endowment plans ULIPs NSC 5 year FDs all of them have one thing in common they were not designed to build your wealth they were designed to qualify for a tax deduction let’s take ULIPs unit linked insurance plan sold as insurance plus investment charges in year one: 15-20% of your premium fund management charges: 1.35% per year mortality charges: ongoing surrender charges if you exit early: steep by the time all the charges are done your actual investment is a fraction of what you put in the 5 year tax saver FD locks your money for 5 years gives you 6.5-7% returns interest is fully taxable real post tax return for someone in 30% bracket roughly 4.5% inflation: 6% you saved tax and lost money simultaneously what 80C actually allows that nobody talks about ELSS mutual funds equity linked savings scheme same ₹1.5L deduction only 3 year lock in vs 5-15 years for other products historical returns: 12-14% over long term tax on gains: 10% only above ₹1L profit better returns shorter lock in lower charges same tax benefit so why doesn’t everyone just do ELSS because LIC agents get 25-35% commission ULIP distributors get similar mutual fund distributors get 0.5-1% the product that’s worst for you pays the person advising you the most that’s not a coincidence that’s the entire business model 80C is genuinely one of the best gifts the Indian government gives salaried taxpayers but most people use it to buy bad products under time pressure on the advice of someone with the wrong incentives invest in ELSS in April not in March and never because someone called you at the right time

every startup job description has the same line “competitive salary plus ESOPs” and every 23 year old reads ESOPs and thinks i’m going to be rich let’s talk about what actually happens ESOP stands for Employee Stock Ownership Plan the company gives you the option to buy shares at a fixed price at a future date key word: option not shares not money an option to buy shares that may or may not be worth anything the vesting schedule is where it gets real typical structure is 4 years with a 1 year cliff means you get nothing for the first year then 25% of your ESOPs unlock then the rest trickle in monthly over 3 years leave before year one you get zero nothing not a rupee now let’s talk about what ESOPs are actually worth your offer letter says 50,000 ESOPs at ₹10 strike price current valuation implies ₹50 per share on paper that looks like ₹20L of value but that valuation is from the last funding round which was 2 years ago which was done at peak startup euphoria which may have nothing to do with reality today the liquidity problem nobody mentions at offer stage even if your ESOPs are fully vested even if the company is doing well you cannot sell them private company shares have no market you can only sell when the company gets acquired or goes public which may never happen your ₹20L on paper could stay on paper forever the tax timing is brutal in India when you exercise your ESOPs meaning when you convert options to actual shares you pay income tax on the difference between strike price and fair market value even if you haven’t sold a single share even if you have no cash in hand you owe tax on money you don’t have yet welcome to startup life what actually happens to most startup ESOPs in India company shuts down: ESOPs worth zero company stays private forever: ESOPs illiquid acquihire at low valuation: ESOPs pay out pennies down round: your strike price is now higher than current value the unicorn exit that makes ESOPs life changing happens to maybe 1 in 50 companies probably less none of this means don’t join startups the learning is real the speed is real the network is real but negotiate your base salary like ESOPs don’t exist because statistically they probably won’t matter get paid for the work you’re doing today not the dream they’re selling you about tomorrow

everyone’s obsessed with their CIBIL score 750+ and you feel financially responsible below 650 and you panic but nobody explains how the thing actually works and banks are very happy keeping it that way your CIBIL score is calculated on 5 things payment history: 35% credit utilisation: 30% length of credit history: 15% credit mix: 10% new credit enquiries: 10% most people only know about payment history and ignore the other 65% credit utilisation is the one that silently kills scores you have a credit card with ₹1L limit you spend ₹60,000 on it this month you pay it back in full on time you think your score is fine it’s not using more than 30% of your limit tanks your score even if you pay everything back the length of credit history part is sneaky that old credit card you never use the one with zero balance you’ve been meaning to close it don’t closing old credit accounts shortens your credit history and drops your score overnight the enquiry trap every time you apply for a loan or credit card the bank pulls your CIBIL report this is called a hard enquiry one hard enquiry drops your score slightly five hard enquiries in three months tells every bank you’re desperately looking for credit and they all quietly say no the biggest lie about CIBIL a good score doesn’t mean you get the loan it means you’re eligible to apply banks also look at your income stability existing EMI obligations employer category city of residence a 780 score with a startup salary can still get rejected over a 720 score with a government job and nobody talks about credit report errors CIBIL data comes from banks banks make mistakes closed loans showing as open someone else’s default on your report you are legally allowed one free CIBIL report per year most Indians have never checked theirs errors on your report are your problem to fix not the bank’s so what actually builds a great score one credit card used below 30% of limit paid in full every single month never close your oldest card never apply for multiple loans at once check your report once a year for errors that’s it no hacks no shortcuts just boring consistency

your parents probably have a LIC policy they’ve been paying for 20 years and they think it’s an investment it’s not let me show you what it actually is an endowment plan bundles two things together life insurance and a savings/investment component sounds smart one product doing two jobs the problem is it does both jobs terribly let’s take a real example Jeevan Anand — one of LIC’s most popular plans premium: ₹50,000 per year term: 20 years total paid: ₹10 lakh maturity amount: roughly ₹13-14 lakh that’s approximately 3.5% annual returns inflation is 6% you just lost money while thinking you were saving it now look at the life cover it gives you on ₹50,000/year premium you get maybe ₹8-10L of life cover a pure term insurance plan same ₹50,000/year premium gives you ₹1.5-2 crore of life cover same money 15x more protection so why did your parents buy it the LIC agent got 25-35% commission in year one on a term plan he gets 5-7% he didn’t sell them the wrong product because he was evil he sold it because it paid him 5x more the incentive was never your family’s wealth the industry calls this mis-selling it has been going on for 50 years across crores of indian families every year premiums go in every year real returns stay below inflation every year the agent renews his commission what your parents actually needed was simple a term plan for protection a mutual fund SIP for wealth building keep insurance and investment completely separate they have nothing to do with each other bundling them only benefits the person selling if your parents have an endowment plan right now check the surrender value compare it to what they’ve paid in calculate what that money would be worth in an index fund the number will make you uncomfortable but better uncomfortable now than broke at retirement

@Finlo_com Exactly !!

@anshumanomics The hardest line on that list is don't touch it. The first 30 percent drop makes every instinct scream to stop. The fix: auto debit on salary day and delete the tracking app. Boring and automatic usually beats clever and emotional.

₹10,000/month at 22 sounds small right? let me show you what it actually becomes and why you’ll want to cry after reading this

every indian family has that one uncle who says property is the best investment let’s actually check his math uncle bought a flat in 2004 for ₹20L sold it in 2024 for ₹80L he made 4x in 20 years sounds incredible right let’s do the actual math ₹80L on ₹20L over 20 years is 7.2% annual returns not bad but not the whole story what uncle didn’t count stamp duty and registration: ₹1.5L upfront maintenance charges: ₹2000/month for 20 years = ₹4.8L property tax: roughly ₹50k total one renovation: ₹3L brokerage on sale: ₹1.6L total hidden costs: ₹11L+ real returns just dropped to under 6% now let’s look at the other side same ₹20L in a Nifty 50 index fund in 2004 average return: 14% over 20 years value in 2024: ₹2.74 crore no maintenance no property tax no tenants calling at 11pm no brokerage full liquidity anytime the real estate defenders will say but you can’t live in a mutual fund but property gives rental income but it’s a tangible asset all fair points but you’re not comparing investment returns anymore you’re comparing lifestyles those are different conversations rental income argument specifically average rental yield in India: 2-3% per year that’s lower than a savings account the only reason real estate works in India is price appreciation which as we just saw barely beats a simple index fund property is not a bad asset it has real utility, emotional value, stability but the idea that it always beats the market is a myth built on selective memory and math that conveniently stops before the costs your uncle isn’t lying he just never did the full calculation now you can

the government has a tax you never voted for never signed up for and cannot opt out of it’s called inflation and it’s been running at 6% in India for years here’s how it works last year ₹100 bought you a bag of groceries this year the same bag costs ₹106 your money didn’t go anywhere but it buys less that’s 6% of your wealth quietly gone every single year the maths over time gets brutal ₹1 lakh today in 10 years at 6% inflation has the purchasing power of ₹55,000 you didn’t spend it you didn’t lose it it just silently halved now look at where most Indians keep their money savings account: 3.5% interest FD: 6.5-7% interest under the mattress: 0% inflation: 6% you are either breaking even or actively losing and calling it saving the cruel part is who it hits hardest not the rich they own assets: stocks, real estate, gold assets go up with inflation the middle class keeps cash and FDs inflation eats cash and FDs inflation is quietly the biggest wealth transfer from the middle class to the asset owning class the government also benefits directly they borrow money today pay it back in future rupees worth less your fixed deposit is financing that and you’re getting a real return of almost zero in exchange so what do you actually do own assets that grow with or above inflation equity mutual funds have averaged 12% over 20 years real estate in tier 1 cities roughly matches inflation gold is a hedge not a wealth builder the goal is simple make your money grow faster than the government shrinks it inflation isn’t going away 6% is the new normal for India every year you wait to invest is a year the government takes 6% of your purchasing power you don’t beat inflation by working harder you beat it by putting your money to work

there is a ₹50 lakh crore industry in India that has one job beat the market most of them can’t and they’ve known it for years a index fund is simple it just buys every stock in the Nifty 50 in the exact same proportion no research. no fund manager. no strategy. it just follows the market nothing more an actively managed fund is the opposite a highly paid fund manager with a team of analysts decades of experience Bloomberg terminals research reports their entire job is to pick better stocks than the index and charge you for it so who wins? SPIVA India report 2024 over 10 years 85% of large cap active funds underperformed the Nifty 50 index 85% the PhD. the analyst team. the Bloomberg terminal. beaten by a algorithm that does nothing and here’s the part that stings the active fund charges you 1-2% per year the index fund charges 0.1% on ₹10L over 20 years that 1.9% difference costs you approximately ₹7-8L you paid more to get less why does the industry still exist then? because 1-2% sounds like nothing because fund managers are good at sounding confident because past outperformance is always highlighted because nobody shows you the 10 year data upfront distribution is more profitable than performance to be fair — active funds have a case in mid and small cap where markets are less efficient and good research can find hidden value but large cap? you are paying a premium for a coin flip the most rebellious financial decision a young Indian can make right now open Zerodha or Groww search Nifty 50 index fund start a SIP ignore everything else you just beat 85% of professional fund managers without leaving your bed

UPI made paying money feel like nothing that’s not an accident that’s the design let me explain before UPI you handed over a 500 rupee note you felt it leave your hand your brain registered the loss psychologists call it “payment pain” it’s real and it exists to protect you UPI killed payment pain tap. confirm. done. no physical exchange no visual of money leaving your brain doesn’t register it the same way and you spend more as a result this is not a theory it’s documented consumer behaviour research the numbers in India: average UPI transaction value keeps falling meaning we’re using it for smaller and smaller purchases coffee. snacks. ₹50 here. ₹120 there. none of it feels like spending all of it is add the features designed on top of it one click payments — less friction saved merchants — less thinking cashback rewards — dopamine hit for spending buy now pay later on UPI — spend money you don’t have yet every feature reduces the barrier between you and an empty wallet the irony: UPI is genuinely one of India’s greatest innovations financial inclusion, speed, accessibility — all real but the same frictionlessness that helps the unbanked is quietly wrecking the spending habits of everyone else what actually helps: track every UPI transaction for 30 days not to judge yourself just to see it most people are shocked the money isn’t going to big purchases it’s bleeding out in ₹200 increments every single day UPI didn’t make you poor but it made spending invisible and invisible spending is the hardest kind to control your wallet never felt lighter because you never felt it leave

ever notice how crypto influencers always post “I bought X at ₹2” after X is already at ₹50? that’s not a coincidence that’s the playbook here’s how it works step 1: influencer gets allocated coins early at near zero cost directly from the project team step 2: project pays them to “organically” post about it sometimes in more coins sometimes in cash step 3: you see the post you buy in price pumps 🚀 step 4 — the part they never post about influencer sells at the top project team sells at the top early investors sell at the top who’s left holding? you and 10,000 people exactly like you 💀 there’s even a term for it exit liquidity you are not the investor you are the way they cash out read that again the giveaway signs: • “this is not financial advice” + here’s exactly what to buy • posting returns without showing the entry date • “limited time” urgency on a coin • no explanation of what the project actually does • paid partnership hidden in caption fine print the brutal math: top 1% of wallets own 90%+ of most altcoins by the time it trends on twitter they already own it they’re just waiting for you to buy it trending = distribution event not opportunity 🤯 so should you avoid crypto entirely? not necessarily but if you’re buying because an influencer said so you’re not investing you’re donating do your own research or sit it out there’s no third option

Peter Schiff warns Bitcoin could fall to $20,000 if it drops below $50,000! He says investors are still too confident, and a bigger crash could make many Bitcoin holders panic and sell. Schiff also believes Bitcoin's weakness may signal trouble for other risky assets. Despite making similar predictions for years, Bitcoin has continued to reach new highs over time!

🇺🇸 H-1B program faces fraud allegations as former official claims many applications contained fake documents. More than 70% of H-1B visas issued since 2015 have gone to Indian nationals.

Hi

₹10,000/month 22 years old 23 years of patience = ₹3.2 crore the game was never about earning more it was always about starting sooner

so what do you actually do? • open a direct mutual fund account (zerodha coin, groww) • pick 1 simple nifty 50 index fund • set ₹10k SIP on salary day • don’t touch it • repeat for 20 years that’s it no tips. no timing the market. no expertise needed.