Archelyst

Phase 2 of Japan's RCT..

Phase 1 of the reverse carry trade - US bond yields rise as Japan sells Treasuries to raise dollars in preparation to defend the Yen. Phase 2 of the reverse carry trade - US bond yields fall as stock market volatility spikes and traditional risk-off behavior returns. Is it here

Can we start the weekend early?

All failed traders share a common story: their emotions, not the market, got the best of them.

Seems like 𝕏 was down for an hour this morning.

🔷 The Next Official S&J Buy call is $OUST 🔷 Bottomline: This stock is mis-priced by ~3x S&J Asymmetric Framework Pillars: 🔷 Cheap comped to peers ✅ 🔷 Rapid revenue Ramp ✅ 🔷 Sector Strength ✅ 🔷 Profit Inflection ✅ It's not QUITE as "explosive" as the $AMPX was because $AMPX was growing 200% YOY, but the floor here is high and the business is incredibly clean. 🔷What does $OUST do and why is this a monopoly in the making 🔷 For "Physical AI" to scale (think automated warehouse robots, defense drones, and smart city grids) machines need to see in true 3D. Legacy lidar was built using hundreds of fragile, hand-wired lasers that broke easily under industrial vibration and cost a fortune to assemble. Ouster put the entire lidar system onto custom digital silicon chips. They turned a fragile optics into a cheap, rugged, mass-manufacturable semiconductor. They solved the physical vision bottleneck for the robotics industry, and because it's built on silicon, their manufacturing costs come down exactly like computer processors do. 🔷 The Mis-Pricing Math 🔷 So EV/Sales gives you an idea of how expensive the company is valued based on its growth against its total value. Enterprise Value (EV) is like Market Cap but it takes into account debt or cash to get a more complete picture of the company health. A company with debt becomes more expensive and one with cash becomes cheaper. 🔷Takeaway: $OUST is deeply mis-priced🔷 The Aeva ( $AEVA) Disconnect: The market is paying a ridiculous 40x+ premium for a company doing 1/9th the revenue of Ouster while burning over $100M. The Innoviz ( $INVZ) Trap: It looks cheap at 2.4x, but their margins are terrible (20%), and they are structurally unprofitable. The Ouster ( $OUST) Reality: They have 3x the revenue of Innoviz and nearly 10x the revenue of Aeva. They are the only one with 60% software-like margins and positive EBITDA, yet they are trading at a highly compressed 5.6x multiple. 🔷Valuation Headlines: High Floor🔷 $OUST is printing positive EBITDA but trading more than 8X cheaper than $AEVA per the last 12 months revenue. $OUST is growing at 52% YOY, completely dwarfing $INVZ, a direct comp, and doing it with a $211M cash pile and zero long-term debt $OUST has over 3x the revenue of either company so its growing off a larger base ...This does not make sense 🔷Re-Rate Math: ~ 3x🔷 If you just put $OUST at a standard 15x Physical AI multiple it re-rates to +$75 a share, it closed yesterday at $24.75. I do not necessarily think this is 3X this year, but a double is certainly on the table. Outside of global disruption (which is a real risk btw...) I don't see how we end the year backwards, and that is really what I am looking for to deploy capital aggressively in a concentrated position There is no way a stock in this sector growing at 52% YOY solving a physical AI vision bottleneck stays at a discount. I will be here for the re-rate 🔷

$IREN | Bullish Wave Update Daily Chart Analysis $IREN continues to defend the 0.5 Fib level of the reversal zone at $39.67. The resistances above current price: A. Anchored volume profile POC around $42 (orange). B. Daily MA50 around $46 (blue). BUT - If price keeps holding this level, it’s a constructive sign and increases the probability of an upside reversal.

$hims will be 10b market cap next year. Hims should be trading same multiples as $celh