Atul Roy

🧵 Defence stocks are the darlings of this market. HAL, BEL, BDL — they've outperformed while everything else bled. I WANT to own them. But at what price? And with what expectations? Let me walk you through the sector — the bull case, the bear case, and what I'm actually doing 👇

That's my Regime Report for this week. First one of many. I will do this every Sunday. What's your read of the market? 🟢 Bullish — Hormuz open + FII flip = worst is behind us 🟡 Neutral — too many overhead resistances, conflicting statements from US and Iran 🔴 Bearish — rally doesn't have legs Drop your reasoning below. Data > vibes. If this was useful, a repost will help more traders find systematic thinking in a sea of tips. 🎯 If you have any feedback regarding the format, analysis or data points do let me know. Disc: Not a buy/sell recommendation. Educational purposes only. DYOR #TheSystemsTrader #ProcessOverProfits #DataOverPrediction

MY PLAN FOR THE COMING WEEK: Regime: TRENDING (+0.57) Positioning: 70% deployed, 30% cash Open trades: 5 (2 risk-free, 3 at risk) TOR: 3% of 5% ceiling — room to add New entries: 5-7 allowed this week Focus: Metals, Energy, PSEs Upgrade to full 5% TOR if: Crude stays below $95 and FII buying sustains another week. May take leveraged bets. Downgrade if: Crude reverses toward $100 (kills the entire thesis) 3 weeks ago I was fully in cash. The system kept me out. Now the system says go. I go. (Not a prediction. A plan. The market decides which path we take.)

🧵 Roy's Regime Report — Week 16 | 18 Apr 2026 Starting something new. Every Sunday, I'll break down my regime dashboard — the system I use to decide how much risk to take, which sectors to play, and when to sit out. Regime: TRENDING (+0.57) Nifty: 24,354 (+1.3% weekly) My stance: Moderately Aggressive Hormuz was opened on Friday. The same day Crude crashed 7%. FIIs quietly flipped to buying. I was in 100% cash 3 weeks ago — now I'm slowly deploying. Full breakdown 👇

@fordsmith Absolutely

@atulroy Long term investing still needs a clear exit or risk framework, otherwise it quietly turns into just holding and hoping 📉

"I don't need a stop loss. I'm a long-term investor." Heard this from a friend last month. He had bought a small-cap at ₹450. It's at ₹290 now. Down 35%. Still holding. Still "long-term." The problem: long-term investing doesn't mean ignoring risk. It means having a PLAN for when things go wrong. My question to "long-term" holders: At what price do you admit the thesis is broken? ₹200? ₹150? Zero? If you don't have that number, you don't have a plan. You have hope. Hope is not a strategy. #RiskManagement #InvestingBasics

This had happened to us when our car had broken down. When we asked for help, many guys who were there came forward to help. They tried every trick and when the car won't start, they even dhakka maaroed, and got the car started. And my wife's reaction then was absolutely the same as yours. That how do unknown men come forward to help, especially if it's a technical issue 😅

I love how men see a problem and can't walk away. Yesterday I was with my cousin and our bike just stopped in the middle of the road. Out of nowhere, one guy came to help. Tried everything… didn't start. Then another guy joined. Still nothing. Then a third one. Now all three are fully invested like it's their own bike… and we're just standing there getting embarrassed. After a while they were like, "Don't worry, we'll drop you home safely with the bike." Before we could even process that, two more guys showed up. Now FIVE men…all trying different things, discussing, kicking, checking, adjusting something… full teamwork mode. And somehow…they actually got it started. Who says men don't help? Because yesterday, five strangers stopped their day just to make sure two girls didn't get stuck on the road.

This week I explained TOR — Total Open Risk — the single number that tells you if you're overexposed. If you missed it, read it now. This can be the difference between a great returns vs massive drawdowns. Over 80% of retail traders I talk to never calculate their TOR. They manage individual trades but not portfolio risk. That's like checking each tyre's pressure but never looking at the fuel tank. 😉 Bookmark it. Calculate your number. Thank me later 🔖

Trading taught me something I wish I'd learned earlier (Well, I had learnt it during my UPSC prep, but trading reinforces it everyday). You cannot control outcomes. You can only control process. I can do perfect analysis, perfect entry, perfect position sizing — and still lose money. The market doesn't care about my preparation. But over 100 trades, good process wins. Not every time. But most of the time. Life works the same way. You can do everything right and still have a bad year. But one bad year doesn't mean your process is broken. It means the sample size is too small. Keep going. Trust the process. The results show up eventually. (This is the stuff UPSC and trading taught me that no MBA ever could.) P.S. I also hold an MBA in Finance 😅 #TradingPsychology

@InvestorOfJAMMU Maine bola tha Trump put khareed ke le gaya hai overnight 😝

Everyone is hoping for gap up, and I fear for Gap down😂😂 Disc - Invested 85%, Cash 15%

DASHBOARD SUMMARY — Apr 18: 🟢 DXY: Bullish for EM (98.22, falling) 🟢 US 10Y Yield: Below neutral (4.248%) 🟢 DII Flows: Consistent buyers 🟡 Crude: Between Warning and Comfort ($92.81, falling fast) 🟡 VIX: At Trending threshold (17.20, almost there) 🟡 Rupee: Strengthening (92.575, direction reversed) 🔴 FII Flows: Buying, but net sellers for the month Score: 3 green, 3 yellow, 1 red. Two weeks ago this was 1 green, 3 yellow, 2 red. This is the most constructive setup I've seen since late February. The swing variable hasn't changed — crude. If Brent sustains below $90, two more indicators flip green and we're looking at a regime shift. Ab dekhte hain kya hota hai. 🧐 What indicator are you watching most closely right now? 👇 If you found this useful, share with your friends. I'll see you around. #TheSystemsTrader

7. US 10-YEAR YIELD — 4.248% On my dashboard: → Above 4.5%: Headwind (capital flows to US bonds, away from EM) → 4.3%: Neutral → Below 4.0%: Risk On for EM At 4.248%, we're below Neutral. Approaching Risk On territory. This connects directly to FII flows. Lower US yields → less reason for FIIs to park money in US bonds → emerging markets like India become relatively more attractive. If yields drop below 4%, that's a green signal for the entire EM complex. Verdict: 🟢 (flipped from 🟡)

🧵 India Macro Dashboard — Apr 18 I've been running this dashboard every week. For the whole of March and first week of April, my read was: stay in cash, conditions are hostile. But things started to change from April second week. This week? Something massive happened yesterday. Strait of Hormuz was declared open, which led to crude prices crashing and US market rallying. Let's see what the data says for the next week. Let me walk you through it 👇