Atul Roy

🧵 Defence stocks are the darlings of this market. HAL, BEL, BDL — they've outperformed while everything else bled. I WANT to own them. But at what price? And with what expectations? Let me walk you through the sector — the bull case, the bear case, and what I'm actually doing 👇

"I don't need a stop loss. I'm a long-term investor." Heard this from a friend last month. He had bought a small-cap at ₹450. It's at ₹290 now. Down 35%. Still holding. Still "long-term." The problem: long-term investing doesn't mean ignoring risk. It means having a PLAN for when things go wrong. My question to "long-term" holders: At what price do you admit the thesis is broken? ₹200? ₹150? Zero? If you don't have that number, you don't have a plan. You have hope. Hope is not a strategy. #RiskManagement #InvestingBasics

This had happened to us when our car had broken down. When we asked for help, many guys who were there came forward to help. They tried every trick and when the car won't start, they even dhakka maaroed, and got the car started. And my wife's reaction then was absolutely the same as yours. That how do unknown men come forward to help, especially if it's a technical issue 😅

I love how men see a problem and can't walk away. Yesterday I was with my cousin and our bike just stopped in the middle of the road. Out of nowhere, one guy came to help. Tried everything… didn't start. Then another guy joined. Still nothing. Then a third one. Now all three are fully invested like it's their own bike… and we're just standing there getting embarrassed. After a while they were like, "Don't worry, we'll drop you home safely with the bike." Before we could even process that, two more guys showed up. Now FIVE men…all trying different things, discussing, kicking, checking, adjusting something… full teamwork mode. And somehow…they actually got it started. Who says men don't help? Because yesterday, five strangers stopped their day just to make sure two girls didn't get stuck on the road.

This week I explained TOR — Total Open Risk — the single number that tells you if you're overexposed. If you missed it, read it now. This can be the difference between a great returns vs massive drawdowns. Over 80% of retail traders I talk to never calculate their TOR. They manage individual trades but not portfolio risk. That's like checking each tyre's pressure but never looking at the fuel tank. 😉 Bookmark it. Calculate your number. Thank me later 🔖

Trading taught me something I wish I'd learned earlier (Well, I had learnt it during my UPSC prep, but trading reinforces it everyday). You cannot control outcomes. You can only control process. I can do perfect analysis, perfect entry, perfect position sizing — and still lose money. The market doesn't care about my preparation. But over 100 trades, good process wins. Not every time. But most of the time. Life works the same way. You can do everything right and still have a bad year. But one bad year doesn't mean your process is broken. It means the sample size is too small. Keep going. Trust the process. The results show up eventually. (This is the stuff UPSC and trading taught me that no MBA ever could.) P.S. I also hold an MBA in Finance 😅 #TradingPsychology

@InvestorOfJAMMU Maine bola tha Trump put khareed ke le gaya hai overnight 😝

Everyone is hoping for gap up, and I fear for Gap down😂😂 Disc - Invested 85%, Cash 15%

DASHBOARD SUMMARY — Apr 18: 🟢 DXY: Bullish for EM (98.22, falling) 🟢 US 10Y Yield: Below neutral (4.248%) 🟢 DII Flows: Consistent buyers 🟡 Crude: Between Warning and Comfort ($92.81, falling fast) 🟡 VIX: At Trending threshold (17.20, almost there) 🟡 Rupee: Strengthening (92.575, direction reversed) 🔴 FII Flows: Buying, but net sellers for the month Score: 3 green, 3 yellow, 1 red. Two weeks ago this was 1 green, 3 yellow, 2 red. This is the most constructive setup I've seen since late February. The swing variable hasn't changed — crude. If Brent sustains below $90, two more indicators flip green and we're looking at a regime shift. Ab dekhte hain kya hota hai. 🧐 What indicator are you watching most closely right now? 👇 If you found this useful, share with your friends. I'll see you around. #TheSystemsTrader

7. US 10-YEAR YIELD — 4.248% On my dashboard: → Above 4.5%: Headwind (capital flows to US bonds, away from EM) → 4.3%: Neutral → Below 4.0%: Risk On for EM At 4.248%, we're below Neutral. Approaching Risk On territory. This connects directly to FII flows. Lower US yields → less reason for FIIs to park money in US bonds → emerging markets like India become relatively more attractive. If yields drop below 4%, that's a green signal for the entire EM complex. Verdict: 🟢 (flipped from 🟡)

🧵 India Macro Dashboard — Apr 18 I've been running this dashboard every week. For the whole of March and first week of April, my read was: stay in cash, conditions are hostile. But things started to change from April second week. This week? Something massive happened yesterday. Strait of Hormuz was declared open, which led to crude prices crashing and US market rallying. Let's see what the data says for the next week. Let me walk you through it 👇

This is the data after Friday's close: Nifty 50 (largecaps): +0.65% Nifty Midcap 100: +1.27% Nifty Smallcap 100: +1.48% Nifty Microcap 250: +1.18% Broader market is outperforming the headline indices in this rally. What this typically signals: Risk appetite is returning from the bottom up. Traders and smaller investors are getting aggressive before institutions. Is this bullish? Short-term, yes. But historically, when microcaps lead and FIIs are still selling, the rally sometimes tends to be shallow and short-lived. Sustainable rallies start with largecap leadership (institutions buying) and THEN trickle down to midcaps and smallcaps. This one started from the bottom. That makes me cautious about its staying power. Interesting divergence. Worth watching this coming week.

@Sandeep_Majj Great explanation! I think with yesterday's announcements regarding the war, we would see more of Risk On sentiment across global markets. Just like we saw Risk Off crash last month, we should see a Risk On rally in the coming months.

Markets move less on logic and more on mood. “Risk-on” and “Risk-off” describe that shift in sentiment. Risk-On Phase — “Willing to take chances” This is when investors are optimistic. Money flows into: Stocks (especially mid and small caps) Commodities High-beta sectors like tech and metals Investors overlook risks because they expect growth. Example:
After the COVID-19 crash, liquidity and improving sentiment pushed markets higher despite weak data. Even loss-making companies rallied. Mindset:
“Things will improve, I don’t want to miss out.” Risk-Off Phase — “Protect first” This is when fear dominates. Money moves into: Cash Gold Bonds Defensive sectors The focus shifts to capital protection. Example:
During the early phase of the COVID-19 crash, investors sold broadly and moved to safer assets. Mindset:
“I’d rather be safe than sorry.” In short - In risk-on, bad news is ignored In risk-off, good news is ignored Same market, different interpretation. Most people buy in risk-on and sell in risk-off.
Understanding this cycle helps you avoid emotional decisions at extremes. #StockMarket #Mindset

@kalkur_vivek @Ravisutanjani That's already being done. I have seen many charging points at many highway dhabas. And yeah, the problem with installing them at petrol pumps is the availability (or the lack of) real estate.

@atulroy @Ravisutanjani EV chargers shud be installed at parking spaces in highway restaurants, creating a seperate space for them at a petrol pump with no amenities nearby, doesn't make any sense

🚨 Total Petrol Pump vs EV Charger in India Petrol Pumps : 1,00,266 EV Charging Stations : ~27,737 Need Charging Infra For Mass EV Adoption Every Petrol Pump Should Have an EV Charger

I can and I am not in favour of it. I think increasing the size of the parliament is a bad idea because I don't see a scenario in which an increase in the numbers of MPs would lead to more efficient debates. I also agree with the southern states' concerns. But my frustration is with the scuttling of the women reservation bill every time. It feels like that the politicians are in cahoots and they just don't want to pass the bill at all.

@atulroy @NewsAlgebraIND TISS alum cannot differentiate between delimitation bill and women empowerment 😂

BIG NEWS 🚨 Speaker Om Birla gets emotional. Nari Shakti Bill defeated in Loksabha. GOVT - 298 OPPOSITION - 230 Modi Govt could not secure 2-3rd Majority in Loksabha.

@SunilBora1977 @NewsAlgebraIND Reservation is needed to force the political parties to give tickets to the women. Without that, just see how many women actually get tickets.

@atulroy @NewsAlgebraIND Why everyone needs reservation? Couldn’t women get elected on their own merits?

@InvestorOfJAMMU They have gone into hibernation. 😛

I am searching for all Bears who were trolling me for being a Bull earlier. Help me finding them.