.

@A_May_MD @CloisterRes The two of you are completely wrong, on adherence, on pricing, and on what US/OUS mix will look like for this class, and orfo specifically.

Amazing- they are going to be off by a cumulative 50 billion or so for $NVO.

@CloisterRes I'm not sure you understand this market... if 40 percent of patients on oral wegovy are still on drug at 12 months, Novo would be jumping up and down with joy

As an FYI - my current model says that if we just stop putting NRx onto oral Wegovy on March 31, and patient attrition rates are ~ 2% per month, and NO PATIENTS PAY MORE THAN $299 (i.e. all cash pay, no commercial net price bonus), then $NVO is going to do about $1.9b in oral Wegovy sales this year. I don't even know how those numbers are anything other than incontrovertible. We already know they have >500k TRx as of end of February (Danish newspaper article), and the numbers have only been ramping since the beginning of February. My model has 735k patients on in Q1. Even if you think they don't put another patient on since the Danish newspaper article, they're already at $1b for the year! And we already know the first week and a half in March are far stronger than the february numbers!

@anthonystaj it is literally a random blip up at one time point; how could anyone look at that chart and have meaningful confidence?

the whole damn market $sabs

@CloisterRes I'm sorry that you didn't realize that revs have been largely flat since mid q4? Why do you think the stock is down so much since Nov?

@biot_notes wtf are you talking about flat revs?

Pretty hard to see why $SLNO isn't an easy +50% from here tbh. Can get to these rev numbers pretty easily with just US revs. EU is upside to these.

@CloisterRes It's also pretty dumb to believe that revenues are going to triple from here, when they've been essentially flat for 5 months now

Sell-side models are dumb and pretend that they are going to let OpEx balloon in perpetuity (by setting it as a flat % of revs). These guys are going to cash flow this thing.

@plainyogurt21 See you in 2H27!

in episode 2 of "2+2 = 4, right?" x.com/plainyogurt21/…

@plainyogurt21 Would love if you can find an actual example but I'm not aware of it happening, except in a small handful of plans, especially in this case since would argue that Jemperli's data is differentiated in their indications

@biot_notes Idk: once biosims available, and something like key truss biosims also cat 1, costs are being scrutinized more and more imo

$ANAB should be a HUGE beneficiary if PTE extended to 2033. Jemperli wouldn't be subject to the step edits etc. And for equal drugs, first to market (first to data here) onco usually don't switch for no reason.

Why are folks so negative on KPTI?

@seedy19tron @nkt0509 @Sanctuary_Bio You're a smart guy! Maybe you can actually do some research and respond factually to my statement, because otherwise this is silly, as I dont actually think you did any work, just parroting what someone pitched you

@biot_notes @nkt0509 @Sanctuary_Bio “Validation on safety” 🙄

Quick thoughts: $abvx safe haven? 🙏 $dnth bubble bursting , lupus threat now real , coooooked $anl still incredibly cheap compared to $eras adding here on dips under $10 $cmps this Makary news was actually bullish, market misread, nice opportunity to add ahead of data Be safe it’s ugly out there but imho 🐂 should return soon.

@seedy19tron @nkt0509 @Sanctuary_Bio Who cares. You're like the 5 person that has pointed out the same entry; thats not a thesis. 1 non severe case (w/ unknown pathophys) across literally all life time experience with a drug, is nothing worth noting. Humira is 1 percent drug induced lupus; last I checked it did fine

@biot_notes @nkt0509 @Sanctuary_Bio Check faers

@seedy19tron @nkt0509 @Sanctuary_Bio Give me a break; this lupus thesis is beyond silly with literally no data to support it

@nkt0509 @Sanctuary_Bio Confirmed

@But_The_Comps @houndcl @Banana_Oncology Why?

@houndcl @Banana_Oncology Personally I would HEAVILY discount Adlai Nortye data, fyi

@drug_smolecules Except that I'm not really sure I agree with you; no real signs of lupus like symptoms with this moa to date, and FDA seems to agree based on rili phase 3 protocol

@drug_smolecules DNTH?

A burning butterfly Oh how it yearns To be treated At every turn Yet no concerns apparent For the body's own attack And zero a care For the prophylactic stack They say no black box Yet protocol quite clear Vaccinate the naïve To remove biotic fear

@CloisterRes Why is that embarrassing?

$vor

@TheLAPurchaser @specwiz It's literally the main part of the MFN agreement; there is 0 uncertainty here.

@specwiz There’s like 3 companies that matter in Denmark. I’m not sure he’s putting tariffs here to then exempt them. But who knows. Unlikely they ever go into effect. But if the headlines stick by the time of eps novo will guide to them

$NVO's API is manufactured in Denmark before being shipped into the US...Another #s hit you need to think about for earnings in two wks.

@BalaBioResearch Yay, eye drops that don't actually penetrate into the retina

oh you follow ophtha? do you know of $OCS ?

@MattBiotech @CloisterRes There's this thing called IRA...for a drug that is 75 percent medicare? Also, several other companies with phase 3s in GA over next yr or two

@CloisterRes If they grow a rare disease drug to $1.4 billion annual sales with intellectual property seems reasonable to me. Especially because GA can maybe be fixed with some tweaks or a combo therapy

@adamfeuerstein @matthewherper Very ambitious; 4q miss, 2030 rev guide below cons, and making it clear that they will spend away any upside into unproductive r&d

$ALNY With ambitious five-year plan, Alnylam tells investors: trust us statnews.com/2026/01/11/aln… via @matthewherper #JPM26