Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش@citrinowicz
Demanding that Iran end its support for Hezbollah is effectively equivalent to demanding that it abandon one of the central pillars of its regional security strategy.
A country willing to launch direct attacks on Israel in response to events in Beirut is demonstrating that its relationship with Hezbollah is not a disposable bargaining chip but a long-term strategic commitment.
If President Trump makes these demands the centerpiece of negotiations, one of two things will happen: either he will be forced back into a conflict he does not want, or he will end up tolerating the very behavior he promised to stop as Iran continues supporting Hezbollah.
The credibility of threats to resume military action is also questionable. Trump himself has acknowledged the limits of what military force can achieve. If the United States is unwilling to commit the resources necessary to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by force or physically remove Iran's enriched uranium stockpiles, then what exactly would be the objective of another war?
The more Washington threatens action without following through, the more American deterrence risks eroding. That is particularly problematic given that Iran's perception of U.S. resolve appears to have weakened during the conflict itself.
Meanwhile, diplomatic contacts continue in Switzerland, and Tehran has little incentive to make major concessions. If Trump's goal is ultimately a negotiated agreement, repeated military threats may not bring him closer to that objective. They could instead lock him into commitments that are either politically or strategically impossible to fulfill.
The broader reality is that America's leverage over Iran was limited before the war and may be even more limited afterward. Any successful policy will have to start from that fact rather than from assumptions about what Washington can compel Tehran to do.
#iran