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@indigoanalysis

Science, Food and Forgiveness

شامل ہوئے Mart 2008
208 فالونگ440 فالوورز
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AP@indigoanalysis·
@Jason Yeah like that time in March 2023 he predicted bitcoin will go to $1M within 90 days
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@jason
@jason@Jason·
Balaji might seem out there at times, but he’s almost always just 6 months and 60% ahead of the consensus
Balaji@balajis

I'm going to make some obvious points. (1) Blowing up all the oil infrastructure in the Middle East is an insane idea, and may well result in a global economic crash and humanitarian crisis unrivaled in the lives of those now living. We're talking about the price of everything everywhere rising, from food to gas, at a moment when inflation was already high. All of that will be laid at the feet of the authors of this war. (2) The antebellum status quo of Feb 27, 2026 was just not that bad, but we're unlikely to return to it. Expect indefinite, long-term, ongoing disruptions to everything out of the Middle East. (3) Also assume tech financing crashes for the indefinite future. The genius plan to get the Gulf states caught in the crossfire has incinerated much of the funding for LPs, for datacenters, and for IPOs. Anyone in tech who supported this war may soon learn the meaning of "force majeure" as funding gets yanked. (4) Many capital allocators will instead be allocating much further down Maslow's hierarchy of needs, towards useful basic things like food and energy. (5) It's fortunate that all those progressives yelled about the "climate crisis." Yes, their reasoning about timelines was wrong, and much of the money was wasted in graft, but the result was right: we all need energy independence from the Middle East, pronto. It's also fortunate that Elon and China autistically took climate seriously. Now they're going to need to ship a billion solar panels, electric vehicles, batteries, nuclear power plants, and the like to get everyone off oil, immediately. (6) It's not just an oil and gas problem, of course. It's also a fertilizer problem, and a chemical precursor problem. Maybe some new sources will come online at the new prices, but it takes time to dial stuff up, particularly at this scale, so shortages are almost a certainty. That said, China has actually scaled up coal-to-chemicals[a,c] (C2C), and there's also something more sci-fi called Power-to-X[b] which turns arbitrary power + water + air into hydrocarbons. But all of that will need to get accelerated. I have a background in chemical engineering so may start funding things in this area. (7) Ultimately, this war is going to result in tremendous blame for anyone associated with it. It's a no-win scenario to blow up this much infrastructure for so many people. Simply not worth it for whatever objective they thought they were going to attain. But unless you're actually in a position to stop the madness, the pragmatic thing to do is: scramble to mitigate the fallout to yourself, your business, and your people. [a]: reuters.com/business/energ… [b]: alfalaval.com/industries/ene… [c]: reuters.com/sustainability…

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AP@indigoanalysis·
@Dearme2_ Learned to run. Trust me once you can run 20 mins at whatever speed, you have the keys to happiness
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Dear Self.
Dear Self.@Dearme2_·
During your darkest period, what was the best thing you ever did for your mental health?
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@Gccooke Trying hand at energy dominance through oil control in 2026 is like using stones to intimidate a rocket launcher.
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GC Cooke
GC Cooke@Gccooke·
Trump is running the most dangerous geopolitical blitz since Bretton Woods. And the endgame isn't a trade war. There's a theory circulating that Trump is running a far more ambitious play -- one designed to collapse BRICS, force China's hand, and lock in dollar dominance for decades. It's bold. It's speculative. And whether you buy it or not, the underlying moves are worth paying attention to: 𝗦𝘁𝗲𝗽 𝟭: 𝗩𝗲𝗻𝗲𝘇𝘂𝗲𝗹𝗮 The U.S. moves on Venezuela's oil, lithium, gold, and rare-earth reserves. Not for regime change — for resource control. China has quietly relied on Venezuelan oil to sidestep sanctions for years. That lifeline gets cut first. 𝗦𝘁𝗲𝗽 𝟮: 𝗖𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗱𝗮 This one's less dramatic but arguably more important. Canada deepens its alignment with Washington — offering diplomatic support, intelligence sharing, and strategic basing access. It's not that Ottawa becomes a puppet. It's that North America starts operating as a single economic and security bloc in a way we haven't seen since WWII. That kind of continental unity sends a message that's hard to ignore. 𝗦𝘁𝗲𝗽 𝟯: 𝗜𝗿𝗮𝗻 With Venezuela compromised, China pivots to Iran for oil. Predictable. That's when the U.S. and Israel escalate — strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, command infrastructure, and oil facilities. China's backup energy source disappears. 𝗦𝘁𝗲𝗽 𝟰: 𝗥𝘂𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗮 Here's where the theory gets really interesting -- and really controversial. The argument is that a back-channel deal is already taking shape. Russia, increasingly squeezed and looking for off-ramps, begins redirecting energy exports toward Western markets. Out of self-interest, not friendship. In return, Moscow gets energy revenue guarantees and a pathway back to the global trading system. Canada, with its existing Arctic and energy ties, becomes the diplomatic bridge. The result is a North American–Russian energy alignment that removes China's last major source of leverage. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗘𝗻𝗱𝗴𝗮𝗺𝗲 BRICS loses its economic foundation. Beijing, cut off from reliable energy and geopolitical allies, is forced to negotiate on American terms, including purchasing U.S. debt at favorable rates. The dollar gets a controlled reset with gold as the backstop, and the global financial system re-centers around Washington. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗕𝗶𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻 + 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻 𝗟𝗮𝘆𝗲𝗿 Energy price spikes and defense spending flood capital into risk assets. Bitcoin pushes past $200K. Then comes the executive orders: a Strategic U.S. Bitcoin Reserve, funded by seized assets and energy windfalls. But the piece most people are sleeping on is stablecoins. Every USD-pegged stablecoin moving across borders reinforces American financial infrastructure without a single new bank branch. The GENIUS Act laid the regulatory rails. A geopolitical shakeup of this scale would create a demand shock. Stablecoins don't just survive a reset like this. They become the rails it runs on. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗙𝘂𝗹𝗹 𝗦𝗲𝗾𝘂𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲: Resource control → energy dominance → geopolitical isolation of China → dollar reset + Bitcoin reserve + stablecoin expansion. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗙𝘂𝗹𝗹 𝗦𝗲𝗾𝘂𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲: Precision chaos → total energy dominance → China's surrender on U.S. terms → dollar reset + strategic Bitcoin reserve + stablecoin expansion. American financial supremacy 2.0. Whether you believe it or not, the pieces are already moving.
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@BillAckman Reality, as in Maya, the grand cosmic delusion, you mean?
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@levelsio And yet most people aspire to be rich and powerful, giving it the name success.
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@levelsio Meat increases your chance of colon cancer by 28%. You can pick research to convince yourself of anything. We go dig evidence that confirm our existing ideas. It's called confirmation bias. What do you eat if meat causes cancer and vegetables contain mp? health.harvard.edu/staying-health…
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AP@indigoanalysis·
@IterIntellectus Surely you will be fine. Ironic that not everyone will be. Despite all your tech, there are still approximately 9 million people who die from hunger and hunger related diseases. May be do something about that, now that you are fully convinced you will be fine.
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vittorio
vittorio@IterIntellectus·
self driving is solved. AGI is here. humanoid robots entering production, nuclear fusion finally working, the food pyramid being rebuilt from scratch, fatness curable, BCIs restoring movement and sight, CRISPR editing diseases out of the germline, cancer becoming manageable, private companies building moon landers, longevity approaching escape velocity i think we're going to be fine
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AP@indigoanalysis·
@ianmiles You don't really need teeth today. You can just make smoothies and drink everything. Nor do you need to pay exorbitant prices to eat tiny amounts of food in Michelin star restaurants. It's just an experience. Yet people do all the time, even aspire to do so.
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Ian Miles Cheong
Ian Miles Cheong@ianmiles·
Elon Musk: At this point, education is mostly a social experience. You don’t actually need school to learn anymore. With AI, you can learn just as much—or more—on your phone at home. School is becoming less about knowledge and more about being around people your own age. People should go to school today mainly for the social side of it. The learning itself? AI can already do that better. Conventional schooling could be vastly improved, and individualized AI teachers will outperform the one-size-fits-all classroom. Education doesn’t need to happen in a building anymore. You could learn everything at home on your phone. Kids go to school to hang out, build social skills, and experience a coming-of-age—not because it’s the most effective way to learn. School today functions as a social filter, not a learning engine. AI handles the learning better. Humans still go to school for friendships, relationships, leadership, confidence, and real-world social development.
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@levelsio Seems like all of the massive private equity does this exact same thing
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@levelsio
@levelsio@levelsio·
Not for or against this btw but this is Bending Spoons, an Italian P/E firm that acts like a startup They raise a lot of money to acquire stagnant or failed startups Then they fire everyone, replace them with cheap labor (costs go down), and increase the prices (revenue goes up) while improving or simplifying the product They're the ones who acquired Evernote too "Bending Spoons implement a classic software investment strategy by acquiring an underperforming software business and combining aggressive financial strategies with technological innovation Many of the companies that Bending Spoons acquires are based in Silicon Valley, which has labor costs that are significantly higher than in Italy, where Bending Spoons is based. By getting rid of the expensive US employees and moving the team to Italy they are able to reduce expenses and take advantage of their shared services. They substantially raise subscription prices to maximize revenue from dedicated users. Many customers churn, but the profits increase substantially."
@levelsio@levelsio

Bending Spoons strikes again

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@DefenceBrat The answer to this question is yes. In under 2 hours, on a plane.
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Defence Brat
Defence Brat@DefenceBrat·
Any two points in India, 930 km apart, that you can cover in under 9 hours? PS: This was via a no-toll route in US.
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@konstructivizm Mine from backyard taken on Sunday.
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Black Hole
Black Hole@konstructivizm·
IC 443. Constellation: Gemini Distance: 5,500 light years RA: 06h 17m 13s Dec: +22° 31′ 05′′ IC 443 (also known as the Jellyfish Nebula and Sharpless 248) is a galactic supernova remnant in the constellation Gemini. Credit: Wide Field Optical: Focal Pointe Observatory/B.Franke, Inset: X-ray: NASA/CXC/MSFC/D.Swartz et al, Inset: Optical: DSS, SARA.
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@levelsio Easy way to be successful at stuff is to set low goals. Easy goal, easy to hit successfully. Unless the meaning of success for you is to hit bigger goals than other people.
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@levelsio
@levelsio@levelsio·
If I look at the last 15 years of knowing people in startups, and then seeing who became successful and who didn't, I'm starting to see some general patterns The people I know who became successful (and very rich) regularly asked for help and feedback, and then applied that feedback very quickly (think minutes) and shipped fast while maintaining their own vision The people who didn't become successful are the ones who worked on stuff for months/years without asking for help or feedback, or when they did took weeks/months to apply it So I think the feedback -> implement loop and speed of it is possibly very important
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@PeterDiamandis Lol sure. Why is he sitting on hundreds of billions then?
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Peter H. Diamandis, MD
Peter H. Diamandis, MD@PeterDiamandis·
Elon's advice for near-retirees: Don't save money for retirement.
Peter H. Diamandis, MD@PeterDiamandis

Join my conversation with @elonmusk on AGI timelines, energy, robots, and why abundance is the most likely outcome for humanity's future, alongside my Moonshot Mate @DavidBlundin! (00:00) - Navigating the Future of AI and Robotics (04:54) - The Promise of Abundance and Optimism (10:02) - Energy: The Key to a Sustainable Future (15:00) - The Role of Education in a Changing World (41:07) - Health, Longevity, and the Future of Humanity (50:51) - AI's Impact on Labor and Employment (55:05) - Universal High Income: A New Economic Paradigm (57:58) - Navigating the Singularity and AI's Acceleration (01:02:30) - The Role of AI in Healthcare and Surgery (01:08:22) - Ethics and AI: Programming Values into Machines (01:14:18) - The Future of Space Exploration and AI's Role (01:33:30) - The Chip Shortage Crisis (01:42:46) - Simulation Theory and Consciousness (01:48:18) - The Search for Extraterrestrial Life (01:58:28) - The Future of Robotics and AI Integration

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@levelsio Strong man or diseased man? That's way too much steak. Too much of anything is not good.
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@levelsio
@levelsio@levelsio·
1 airfryer can only hold 1 steak, not enough food to become a strong man
Brice@bricexeth

@levelsio But why did you buy 2 airfryers? Do they have different functions? 🤔

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AP@indigoanalysis·
@waitbutwhy That's odd considering the fact that most people never complain about lights being off during the day in their cars
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Tim Urban@waitbutwhy·
On an airplane currently and would like to register two complaints: 1) It's a two-hour domestic flight between the hours of 5-7pm, and the lights are OFF. It's like fully dark in here. I get that some people want to nap, but it's daytime, and we're adults. People are free to bring a sleep mask. 2) There is no row 13, because apparently we still believe in voodoo number curses. We are such a silly species.
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@SawyerMerritt @Tesla Sure, I think he plans to get to it as soon as he gets those hyperloops running. It's only been 13 years since they were announced.
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AP@indigoanalysis·
@naval The immortals will very quickly realize one thing, dying was better.
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Naval
Naval@naval·
We should be praying for technology acceleration because on the other side, lies immortality.
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@elonmusk 10+ years back your hyperloop was also the latest tech that would solve all public transportation issues. How many real lines on hyperloop now?
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Elon Musk
Elon Musk@elonmusk·
The future is going to be AMAZING with AI and robots enabling sustainable ABUNDANCE for all!
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