leveredturtle

I am now a $SES.TO shareholder. I think this is a very unique opportunity to own high-quality waste assets at a 7-8% FCF yield, which are likely to continue growing. My thoughts are here: open.substack.com/pub/leveredtur…

@pedroleongarci2 We seem to have similar taste re: $SES.TO If you’re interested in looking at something a bit messier, but where I think there is currently good value, take a look at $CCRN

Swimming in cash after selling $NWL at close to 19€ recently and the acquisition of $SES.TO. both ex main positions. Any good value or GARP idea?

If this deal goes through as written, it's an incredibly disappointing outcome for $SES.TO shareholders. Our base case was C$34/share using conservative assumptions. Instead, shareholders are being asked to sell a scarce, high-quality waste infrastructure asset for C$24.75/share, mostly in GFL stock. The call this morning made it worse. All $GFL did was talk about the high quality waste asset with predictable cash flows, durable growth, best in class assets, significant reinvestment runway etc. They basically spent the entire call explaining why Secure is a great business with a long runway…while buying it for 11x this year's EBITDA.

Really hope this is not the case. $SES.TO is easily worth more…

Where to safely park cash during the AI apocalypse? A hidden gem that is rarely talked about is A&W! $AW.TO • 5% dividend currently • 1,000+ restaurants and continued expansion • Consistent system sales growth • New opportunities with Pret brand I love this company!

Trying to fill a limit order on a nanocap that trades $20k/day and wondering if this is how buffet feels

@taobanker I get the temptation too, but I also feel like there may be better SaaS options less exposed to more prevalent seat-based headwinds AI is really hard to handicap, but graphic designers/animators/video editors seem most at risk right now.

Lord have mercy because I'm kinda down to take another stab at $adbe here -- thoughts?

As someone who works at one of the many sleepy institutions that use $wday is it an over simplification that I simply don’t see my or many employees going through the pain of ripping them out? A lot of AI investments seem productivity driven; is replacing $wday a priority?

$wday -46% ytd Those buybacks executed last quarter add quite a bit of insult to injury…

@commonsenseplay That’s totally fine, agreed, share price is higher than current share price. I’m just pointing out, that your frame of reference in the initial post was incorrect

@leveredturtle Look at my thread…. The share price offer

Trade Alert: I just bought $60k worth of Dye and Durham. $DND.TO $DYNDF Multiple bids received - of $1.7 to $1.8 billion. The company is currently valued at $240 million!!!!! Don't get shaken out. Multibagger!!

@mythmakrr Was like 35x fcf

Why is $wcn $wcn.to going down? lol

@qualityequities Is P/S really an appropriate metric for one of the most scaled businesses in the world? Not arguing if it’s cheap or not.. just.. P/S for a $1.3tn company?

The answer is Yes. Thank you for your attention to this matter. $META

@taobanker I raise you maintenance capex vs. Growth capex ;)

I have terrible news for FCF investors: Every time you buy a stock, your FCF in that moment is negative. You have spent money on an investment. This -- according to your own logic -- makes you a bad investor.

I have a friendly disposition towards small caps for all of the well known reasons that one would. But situations like $META and $NFLX in 2022 and $GOOG in 2025 show there can be material opportunity across even the largest sizes when low multiples meet earnings growth

@Jake___Barfield @AKWilk $1bn net debt is just around ~3x cash levered which is magnitudes better than the cash leverage waste majors play at Look @ maintenance capex vs. Growth capex. Maintenance is low… high capex is them building infra for more 10yr contracts GM jump = accounting change to screen👍

What caused the jump in gross margins from a long-term average of MSD% to ~29% in recent years? Are you concerned about the $1b of net debt, given the high capex needs on the biz, which seems to cause lumpiness in FCF. Seems like some of these repurchases might have been debt-funded. Obviously could learn this for myself, but thought I'd ask here before DMODD

New post: a 30 page research report and full writeup on one of Greystone’s highest conviction holdings, Secure Waste Infrastructure $SES.TO. Secure is a high-quality, volume-driven toll booth with strong management, in what we believe are still the early stages of a multi-year compounding story. open.substack.com/pub/poundthero…

@stock_badger progressive’s share gains are a real volume headwind, but broader auto insurance cyclicality is also magnifying volume noise. Copart still has leading leading ASPs, the most dense towing network, title express, etc. with total loss rates rising I think the future still looks 👍

@leveredturtle How do you view the competitive dynamics with IAA? Heard they’ve been gaining market share due to their key insurer seeing higher volumes which is creating fear from market on CPRT’s grip on market share

$CPRT was expensive to start, but getting fair again. If market sentiment keeps getting worse on this name, will move my starter into a more meaningful investment. Overly simple math is underwriting continued declines in accident rates, but also accelerating total loss rates…

Cyclicality in auto insurance is also creating the perfect storm. I think it’s reasonable to see swings in insurance levels as cost of living accelerates, but I think it’s also fair to assume the world still needs auto insurance and the level of demand will ebb and flow over time

@varunv_malhotra $ses.to: cheap waste duopoly

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