پن کیا گیا ٹویٹ
This is an underappreciated quote from $WISE's CEO during their April 3rd investor day that I haven't seen floating around in here yet.
English
Jake Barfield
868 posts
Combing through old @Journalytic notes and came across this one from three years ago: JMDC ($4483) a 🇯🇵 healthcare data company. The past 3Y performance is not surprising given the starting valuation and while its not clearly cheap at the moment it could be very interesting to follow given the indispensable data that they seem to have a near monopoly on and low churn rates within their customers.
English
That’s interesting that you will be getting a better platform on a system that isn’t traditionally life science oriented.
When you go to trade shows or talk amongst peers at different companies do you find that the complaints you have are similar or does your Co. operate a bit uniquely in the life science space?
Thanks very much
English
@Jake___Barfield @tomicki Saleforce LS, we have over 5 years of data and the migration will takes 3-5 months. We already started to cut veev license on inactive users. Pricing is better but only because CRM is panicking and we bring huge volume. We will be their #1 customer in LS, but platform is better++
English
1/Most of the SaaS apocalypse is deserved. But not every SaaS is the same. Some have moats. $VEEV is one of them. Here's why it is worth a look. Thread:
English
. @BradoCapital thanks for making this happen. You guys are actually taking customer feedback and iterating. 👏
Jake Barfield@Jake___Barfield
Its pretty comparable. I just pulled up Medley ($4480), a Japanese small cap that I know well, in Tikr and Fiscal. Tikr has a "news" section on the company's webpage that is helpful and accurate that Fiscal doesn't have. Fiscal has a "research" section (that Tikr doesn't have) that produces an AI generated report that is fairly accurate with helpful charts -- albeit with some important nuances that requires actual research and familiarity with the business in order to understand. Fiscal has an "industry" section that listed most of Medley's competitors, although it is missing a few. But it is editable so I am able to add the missing ones myself. Both have modelling tools that might be helpful but which I don't use much yet (I still like to build my own models at this point). Tikr has the ability to change the currency denomination to USD in the overview section that is super useful, given that I look at companies all over the world and like being able to toggle it to see what the market cap, EV, etc is in USD terms. Perhaps @BradoCapital could integrate this one day. Fiscal has a better tools for looking at IR reports and integrating AI to then ask questions about those reports, while Tikr has a better "all filings" section. I use both regularly. Fiscal has the ability to listen to recent earnings calls alongside transcripts while Tikr only has the transcripts.
English
@compound248 This is Peloton 2.0 and GoPro 3.0. Single product company. Tons of hype. Users love it, but it only appeals to a niche of the larger population. Tons of competition. Minimal need to upgrade with each new product cycle.
English
@joinyellowbrick It's the former for me. Deducting SBC is a good enough approximation of per-share earnings power and avoids the need for building a share count waterfall or other methods that might feel more precise, but which rarely are.
English
Question for the people who subtract SBC from FCF: are you doing it as a proxy for dilution (ie now your P/FCF kind of includes SBC dilution) or because you actually believe SBC should be treated as a cash expense?
English
@finphysnerd $WISE fits here. Trading at a lower multiple than some of these with significantly higher growth. Not subject to AI disruption. Perhaps the best bear case against them right now is crypto becoming a better way to move currency cross-border, which is unlikely.
English
My main focus atm is being long quality companies that will be resistant to AI disruption or any sort of oil led economic slowdown. Some I like here are $V, $MA, some reits, $MCO, $SPGI, $ICE. Would love to hear other people's favourites as I'm looking for stuff to buy here.
English
@AIFinanceIQ @AKWilk Right but this is a well known concern and I think the point that Adam is trying to make is that it’s already priced in as if DUOL’s eventual death is a foregone conclusion.
English
$DUOL is super interesting. In my view, the market is treating it a decelerating growth stock, but 90% of its user base doesn't pay anything, they have a DAU/MAU ratio trending toward social network levels, AI is expanding the premium tier's value proposition, and an underappreciated DET franchise that is actively disrupting the TOEFL/IELTS duopoly. The bear case is not very punitive from here, the bull case numbers get wild. Founder-led CEO, excellent balance sheet, buyback program in place.
English
@Jake___Barfield @AKWilk $1bn net debt is just around ~3x cash levered which is magnitudes better than the cash leverage waste majors play at
Look @ maintenance capex vs. Growth capex. Maintenance is low… high capex is them building infra for more 10yr contracts
GM jump = accounting change to screen👍
English
New post: a 30 page research report and full writeup on one of Greystone’s highest conviction holdings, Secure Waste Infrastructure $SES.TO.
Secure is a high-quality, volume-driven toll booth with strong management, in what we believe are still the early stages of a multi-year compounding story.
open.substack.com/pub/poundthero…
English
What caused the jump in gross margins from a long-term average of MSD% to ~29% in recent years?
Are you concerned about the $1b of net debt, given the high capex needs on the biz, which seems to cause lumpiness in FCF. Seems like some of these repurchases might have been debt-funded.
Obviously could learn this for myself, but thought I'd ask here before DMODD
English
Its pretty comparable. I just pulled up Medley ($4480), a Japanese small cap that I know well, in Tikr and Fiscal. Tikr has a "news" section on the company's webpage that is helpful and accurate that Fiscal doesn't have. Fiscal has a "research" section (that Tikr doesn't have) that produces an AI generated report that is fairly accurate with helpful charts -- albeit with some important nuances that requires actual research and familiarity with the business in order to understand.
Fiscal has an "industry" section that listed most of Medley's competitors, although it is missing a few. But it is editable so I am able to add the missing ones myself.
Both have modelling tools that might be helpful but which I don't use much yet (I still like to build my own models at this point).
Tikr has the ability to change the currency denomination to USD in the overview section that is super useful, given that I look at companies all over the world and like being able to toggle it to see what the market cap, EV, etc is in USD terms. Perhaps @BradoCapital could integrate this one day.
Fiscal has a better tools for looking at IR reports and integrating AI to then ask questions about those reports, while Tikr has a better "all filings" section. I use both regularly.
Fiscal has the ability to listen to recent earnings calls alongside transcripts while Tikr only has the transcripts.
English
@Jake___Barfield @MikeFritzell Are they good w/ global equities v TIKR? I'm thinking about switching.
English
@MikeFritzell Just realized that I am on Fiscal's legacy plus subscription so maybe I have more features than is currently offered.
English
@Jake___Barfield Interesting. Maybe I should try Fiscal AI then
English
Very good piece in WSJ about AAPL's AI bet. No strong opinions here yet.
$AAPL: Apple’s own benchmarks show the M5 running a 30-billion-parameter model—capable of drafting legal briefs, debugging code, synthesizing research—in under three seconds on a standard MacBook Pro. Eighteen gigabytes of memory. No internet. No subscription. No API key. The trick is an architectural advance called Mixture of Experts: The model carries 30 billion parameters but fires only three billion per query, like a law firm where all the partners are on retainer but only the relevant specialist answers your call... Billions of daily queries will never touch a server. Hundreds of millions of knowledge workers on iPads and MacBooks currently paying $20 a month for ChatGPT or Copilot can get equivalent capability baked into hardware they already own.
$META: Meta has no platform layer, no operating system, no cloud business, no device. It is an application running on Apple’s hardware, spending up to $135 billion this year to build consumer AI features that Apple now ships free, at the OS level, on every device it sells. The Meta AI assistant competes with Siri on Apple’s home court. But Apple Intelligence intercepts user intent before it ever reaches a Meta app. Every query Siri resolves on-device is a session that never begins on Instagram or another Meta product. Every AI-generated notification summary that compresses 20 minutes of scrolling into 30 seconds is 20 minutes of ad impressions that Meta never serves. Meta’s targeting algorithms are still best-in-class. But targeting is a supply-side advantage. Apple is draining the demand side—the attention itself.
wsj.com/opinion/apples…
English
@oguzerkan They are moving from a weak competitive environment into the most fiercely competitive country in the world. It is a near certainty that CAC and payback rates will rise and IRRs will be lower in the US relative to Brazil, Colombia and Mexico.
English
How $NU is not a no-brainer here?
Lowest valuation ever and preparing to launch in the US.
What is the downside of buying $NU here?
English
@WaterworldCapi1 My twins hit their first home runs in the same game last season. Very few things in my life have topped that memory.
English
@iancassel Holding on to those winners and positioning yourself accordingly knowing that many will not live up to expectations. Have learned both of these lessons the hard way over the years.
English
During a lifetime you will have 10-20 big winners and hundreds or thousands that didn’t live up to your expectations. Long-term investing success is capturing those 10-20 monsters while also understanding 95% of what you own will deserve to be sold.
English
@MikeFritzell I’m actually considering not going this year for the first time since getting started professionally
English
Anyone going to the Berkshire AGM this year?
I'm considering attending, for the first time ever
English
Have had countless conversations with management teams over the years with vast majority of them giving me similar looks. One time, a CEO seemed genuinely curious. I sent him a follow-up email with @JohnHuber72 's Three Engines talk that he gave at NC State. They started a buyback the next quarter, stock went down that quarter, and then they canceled the buyback. Next time we spoke he said, "it didn't work" 🤦♂️
English
Some CFOs genuinely don’t understand buybacks or value creation. Generally best to avoid…
One time on a call… mentioned LT underperformance… and CFO chirped back aggressively. I pointed out that the stock was down over a 20 year period. He said that’s just a “point in time analysis.” I asked him what starting point he’d like to use…
He literally did not understand value creation. This is surprisingly common in the public markets.
There is this general stigma that “hedge fund math” doesn’t work and that HF managers don’t know how to run a business. I disagree with that. Most public companies would massively benefit from having a savvy buyside investor that can help explain how investors value the company, would evaluate different capital allocation scenarios, etc.
English
Today I tired to explain to a CFO that it made sense to buy back 10% of the company as it grows 20% and has a 5% FCF yield. He said “we are a growth company.” I said that doesn’t mean you aren’t a growth company, it simply means so could roll the shorts as it’s a small mkt cap and the algos would catch on and go nuts (it would be akin to fidelity buying a big position). This would bring investors off the sidelines with fomo. He looked at me like I had three heads…
English