Macrotool

IRAN IS SHOWING SURPRISING OPENNESS TO WASHINGTON'S MAIN DEMAND: THE REMOVAL OF ITS STOCKPILE OF URANIUM ENRICHED TO 60% TO A THIRD COUNTRY. AT THIS STAGE, NO AGREEMENTS HAVE YET BEEN REACHED REGARDING THE IDENTITY OF THE COUNTRY THAT WILL ABSORB THE DATABASE’ – N12

We all grew up on Ray Dalio. To be honest, I even interviewed at Bridgewater a few times, which is a funny story by itself. And what I’m about to say is just one observation. The problem with these macro legends is that they sound incredibly smart, they speak incredibly smart, and most of the time they just end up disturbing your investment process. Because at some point they stop being investors or traders and become commentators. They’re usually semi-retired, managing reputation more than risk, and every time they open their mouth it somehow becomes one of the greatest contrarian indicators on Earth. A few classics. 2018:
Dalio warned about late-cycle conditions, tightening liquidity, and structurally lower future returns. Market response:
S&P up 31% in 2019. 2020:
Dalio warned future returns would likely stay low because rates were near zero and asset prices were elevated. Market response after the COVID crash:
One of the greatest bull runs in modern history. 2021:
Repeated warnings about bubbles, money printing, and expensive valuations. Nasdaq response:
Up another 27%. 2022:
Dalio:
“The stock market offers about a 5 to 5.5 percent expected return which is pretty low.” Market response:
The market bottomed shortly after and the AI rally began. 2024 and 2025:
Again warning that equity risk premiums are too low and long-term returns from these valuation levels will disappoint. Meanwhile AI stocks continued going vertical. To be fair to Dalio, he’s usually talking about long-term annualized returns from current valuation levels, not short-term market direction. But markets can stay expensive for years while continuing to compound higher. And the last decade taught me one thing. Listening too much to famous macro people is one of the fastest ways to miss massive moves. Ray Dalio has correctly predicted 14 of the last 2 bear markets.

The Wall Street Journal reports the U.S. has handed Iran a new nuclear framework. If Tehran accepts, 30 days of detailed talks begin. Core U.S. red lines: — Iranian attestation that it does not seek nuclear weapons. — Dismantlement of Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan Total ban on underground nuclear work. — On-demand inspections with penalties for violations. — 20-year moratorium on uranium enrichment (down from "permanent"). — Handover of all enriched uranium stockpiles. — Reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, in step with U.S. easing its blockade. — Performance-based sanctions relief, not granted upfront.

tldr: not running out of oil and inventories are much higher than pre shale era. i'm no oil expert but maybe this is why you aren't seeing the 200+ price the oil experts were wrong about

I repeat, the bubble is in the "e" not the "p" in today's PE ratios. The hucksters and talking heads will, as always, fail to realize until it's too late. But it's a very simple set up. Hyperscalers give OpenAI/Anthropic cash to pay for hyperscaler computing capacity. That cash then circles right back around into the "earnings" of the hyperscalers. Meanwhile, free cash flow for the group has officially gone negative and they're raising record amounts of debt (on and off balance sheet) to plug the gaping holes in their financial statements. So yes, please keep telling me about how $META $AMZN $GOOG and $MSFT are "cheap" on PE ratios where the E is a total mirage. Let us know how it ends (hint: not well, bob!)

We have only just entered the early innings.