Mark Tabrett

@LondonMoneyFS Just wait until we start seeing the phrase “…since 2009” everywhere 👀 It’s coming

@bnoujaim @Jkylebass The post is really to help anybody interested. I’ve seen lots of investors make this mistake over the years - not just Kyle.

@mrtabrett @Jkylebass He is clueless forget it. Zero understanding of geopolitics beyond whatever he sees through his own Lens. And macro well also

Global markets are vastly underestimating the severity of what’s unfolding. It’s worth considering how the economies of Europe and Asia will cope with imminent shortages of food, fuel, and medicine. Brent crude futures seem to be pricing in a quick return to normalcy.

@Jkylebass You misunderstand what this chart is saying. The oil futures curve is an indicator of how undersupplied the market is. The steeper the backwardation curve, the worse the undersupply. This is not a forecast of prices returning to normal.

The UK is now competing with the rest of the world for physical oil deliveries. Tankers are being re-routed to buyers in countries willing to pay more for it. Exactly the same thing is happening with LNG. Our best option is to increase production from our own North Sea reserves.

@JavierBlas This was entirely predictable

Increasingly it does sound like US President Donald Trump will leave the Strait of Hormuz to others to sort out. "... The U.S.A. won't be there to help you anymore ..."

@LiamOBFintech @moving_charlie Not higher I’m afraid. I think nominal prices even without adjusting for inflation will be lower than 2007 before they bottom.

@mrtabrett @moving_charlie What higher? I think in real terms after inflation that was probably peak prices. I bought a house around then for about 160k which would be 230k I’m sure that’s nowhere near inflation for that period.

They said it could never happen. And the worst is not yet over. Don’t be the last to wake up.

@MortgageMikeN2 I’m thinking a number of people will walk away without forbearance to protect their cash flow. Especially professional landlords who decide it’s not worth paying a mortgage on an underwater, unsellable, loss-making property.

@mrtabrett I’ve no idea. All depends on what happens to the job market and continued forbearance. Lots more options now before lenders go for repossession.

With bigger falls to come 👇

@MortgageMikeN2 Fuck… will banks legally have to pay the service charges when mortgage holders inevitably hand in their keys? A huge wave of that is surely coming.

@mrtabrett Read somewhere that’s it’s 37% of flat stock in London 🤯

@MortgageMikeN2 It will - likely down to fitness right now (even the most uncoordinated people can skip eventually!)

@mrtabrett I’m so bad at skipping so hopefully that picks up as well 👍

Some oil market traders are betting prices go higher than $450

@MortgageMikeN2 Keep going 👍🏼 boxing is all muscle memory and fitness so it gets easier!

@mrtabrett Badly 🤣

@MortgageMikeN2 I’m not predicting that scenario just yet 😅 Labour is capable though… how’s the boxing going? 💪🏼

@mrtabrett Originals are the best, absolutely, will be carnage. Glad I’ve been doing the boxing 🥊 training 😬🤣

@MortgageMikeN2 I’ve seen the new ones recently but not the originals. Is that where you see this going? 😂 Australia’s already running out of petrol…

@mrtabrett Have you seen the film Mad Max?

@LondonPriceDrop They probably heard that it increases the valuation

Genuine question why do you need 2 toilets for a 1 bed flat?

@ValueRussell @CRUDEOIL231 I used $107 on screen at the time. I get your point that I could have started with Feb 28 price.

@mrtabrett @CRUDEOIL231 What figure are you using for your base Brent price? If $60 then 1.1^15 * 60 would imply about $250.

I agree demand destruction is a reality, but be careful not to overuse it as if it's some magic word. In 2016, the FED conducted excellent research on oil price elasticity. At the time, they estimated the elasticity of oil demand and supply using a SVAR model. Their analysis put the short-term global oil demand elasticity at around -0.1. This means that for every 10% increase in price, demand drops by a mere 1%, suggesting that the market as a whole is extremely inelastic. Low elasticity implies that even minor shifts in supply or demand require prices to either skyrocket or plummet to rebalance the market. This is the key to explaining the extreme vol of oil prices. You might bring up 2022 as an example, but back then, prices spiked while actual supply losses were negligible. However the physical supply loss is massive now. While the share of elastic demand is relatively higher in the petrochem sector, there are virtually no substitutes in industrial raw materials and road transport. To reach a supply-demand equilibrium solely through demand destruction, prices would have to hit the roof. The market will eventually find its equilibrium of course, but beware of the misguided claims that everything happens magically overnight. It’s not as if 10% of global demand vanishes in a single day and solves everything. Every process involves time and lagging. We have currently lost at least 10% of global supply. Since the short-term elasticity of oil demand is so low, prices will have to be incredibly high to force a reduction in demand in response to such a supply destruction. #oott #iran

@Oeko_Nom @CRUDEOIL231 Agree it’s definitely not linear. I was just doing the calculation based on their figures to illustrate.

@mrtabrett @CRUDEOIL231 It's certainly not linear at higher prices.

A 🇨🇦 farmer just said it straight: “If diesel stays high, expect groceries up 25–50% by September.” Diesel = farming + transport + harvest. And it just doubled. People aren’t ready for what’s coming.

Investors punished Oil Majors for too much capex in the early 2010s before oil prices collapsed in 2014. Since then they’ve had much stricter capital discipline to focus on returns rather than production. That’s why investment is lower - not because of some conspiracy to undersupply the market.

🚨 The world's biggest oil companies have a problem they don't talk about publicly. They're consuming more oil than they're finding. After a decade of underinvestment the bill is coming due Every major is moving: 🇺🇸 ExxonMobil doubling down on Guyana 🇺🇸 Chevron under pressure to replace reserves 🇬🇧 Shell warning of future supply gaps publicly 🇬🇧 bp accelerating approvals, simplifying to move faster 🇫🇷 TotalEnergies pulling capital BACK from offshore wind into oil 🇮🇹 Eni exploration as primary growth engine 🇳🇴 Equinor pushing faster drill cycles 🇺🇸 ConocoPhillips expanding into new LNG basins globally Notice what they're all doing at the same time. That's an industry that knows something🛢️ Here's the uncomfortable truth: 📌 US shale is plateauing 📌 Hormuz just showed how fragile supply really is 📌 Demand hasn't dropped at $100 oil 📌 The buffer is gone The next energy crisis won't come from demand destruction. It'll come from a supply system that spent 10 years not investing in itself. The Full analysis in my latest article👇 themerchantsnews.substack.com/p/what-if-the-…

@NeilDotObrien This is happening with LNG too. We’re now competing with the rest of the world for physical oil and gas deliveries.

There's a global competition to secure diesel supplies - what is the British government doing?