𝐏𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐞 𝐌𝐚𝐜𝐫𝐨

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𝐏𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐞 𝐌𝐚𝐜𝐫𝐨

𝐏𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐞 𝐌𝐚𝐜𝐫𝐨

@pineconemacro

Nerd at Pinecone Macro Research

Fox Island, WA شامل ہوئے Ekim 2016
108 فالونگ26.6K فالوورز
jacob l. shapiro
jacob l. shapiro@JacobShap·
Ground troops would be an epic mistake.
Marko Papic@Geo_papic

Lots of chatter today on US using ground troops to escalate the situation. Qeshm: the MOST strategic, but huge and difficult to hold. Full of Iranian military Kharg: gives US leverage due to oil, but well defended Abu Musa and Tunbs: iffy strategic value, but offers US plausible deniability that it did not invade Iran Because Abu Musa and Tunbs are disputed between Iran and UAE, there could be some way for US to spin that as not really that escalatory. All seems pretty risky to me. Risk-Reward is dubious at best. Market won't like any of it.

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𝐏𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐞 𝐌𝐚𝐜𝐫𝐨 ری ٹویٹ کیا
Lyn Alden
Lyn Alden@LynAldenContact·
Remember Bessent’s 3/3/3 plan? One of the 3’s was 3%-of-GDP deficits.
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𝐏𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐞 𝐌𝐚𝐜𝐫𝐨
𝐏𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐞 𝐌𝐚𝐜𝐫𝐨@pineconemacro·
🎯
Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش@citrinowicz

There is no silver bullet for the Iran problem. Any major move that expands the scope of the conflict will almost certainly trigger an Iranian response thus raising the cost of the campaign, especially for the global economy. But there is a deeper issue: what is the actual objective behind a so-called “decisive strike”? Such a move will neither topple the regime nor force its surrender. If the goal is to coerce Iran into submission, it would require far more than a single strike. it would mean a prolonged, complex military campaign. And if the real objective is true capitulation, then we should be honest: that implies regime change. The search for a quick, clean solution is understandable given the frustration with a war of attrition. But there is no shortcut here—and no decisive outcome without accepting the full strategic cost. #IranWar‌

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𝐏𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐞 𝐌𝐚𝐜𝐫𝐨
𝐏𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐞 𝐌𝐚𝐜𝐫𝐨@pineconemacro·
@naubzie Too hard pile for me right now I doubt we get hikes but if the strait is closed in May inflation would be high enough to hike for the Fed If we get two hikes priced and you are convinced it is about to open - yeah buy it!
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NA@naubzie·
@pineconemacro Hey chase. What do you think about $tua in this environment?
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𝐏𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐞 𝐌𝐚𝐜𝐫𝐨
𝐏𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐞 𝐌𝐚𝐜𝐫𝐨@pineconemacro·
This ETF has been incredibly important to us…we flipped from $TLT to $PFIX in the same day weeks ago and it saved our year…also do NOT sleep on $TUA
ConvexityMaven@ConvexityMaven

My ETF nearing its October 2022 high as rates rise and the Yield Curve steepens Rate exposure is ~$0.27 per basis point, rates higher ETF higher Pays a $1.20/yr dividend You don't buy because you are bearish on rates, you buy it buy because you are bullish and may be wrong

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Wes Johnson
Wes Johnson@wesj22·
@KYRRadio Zach and @pineconemacro. I remember a segment from I believe inside stuff of GP, Shawn Kemp, and maybe Sam Perkins at the fish market throwing fish around. I may be wrong on the players but that’s what comes to mind for me.
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Luke Gromen
Luke Gromen@LukeGromen·
@pineconemacro Oh wow…thanks I was hearing these things 2 1/2 or three weeks ago and was waiting to see how long it would take to show up in our mainstream media
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Luke Gromen
Luke Gromen@LukeGromen·
“Many of the 13 military bases in the region used by American troops are all but uninhabitable, with the ones in Kuwait, which is next door to Iran, suffering perhaps the most damage.” -NYT just now First MSM admission I’ve seen of this fact
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