your boy Armani 🫂@armanifeante
look at it this way, Nigeria has six geopolitical zones, North(East, west, central) South (East, west, south)
In the event of a split, the entire north would become one, South would split into 3 countries
the uncomfortable truth about a Nigerian split is that it wouldn't produce 4 equal nations.
It would produce two or three viable states and one or two that would struggle for survival from day one.
the South-south has oil that currently flow from Niger delta to Abuja, if we split, it becomes theirs alone and many people agree that Niger delta could become Kuwait in few years
south East has always been very resourceful that even though it’s technically landlocked, they will surely find a way to access the ocean and engage in international trade. But it would still struggle a bit because they would not have comparative advantage over china in manufacturing and they would need relationship with other countries to sell imported products.
there is a claim that south west already functions almost independently because of lagos, but it would require that they take over the gap that the Igbo fills in lagos for that to be valid after split. however, with access to ocean, the country would easily get on its feet.
where it gets complicated is the North. They are totally landlocked with little or no mineral resources. It would be an economy built almost entirely on subsistence farming and livestock.
by this logic, we will have a 2 struggling nations- North and south east and rich South south and neither rich nor poor South west
and struggling nations don't stay peaceful, they pressure their wealthier neighbours and they destabilise an entire region.
like what Chad, Niger and Cameroon are currently doing to us.
Some could say this is why the topic of separation is almost like a blasphemy to the northern elites and a self sabotage to the south easterners.