Johan

My latest industry checks indicate that MediaTek has upgraded the strategic positioning of its AI business from "IC / ASIC design" to "system-level design," initially targeting the PCBA (L6) for Google's TPU and the L10 rack for Elon Musk-affiliated companies' in-house AI chips. Overall, this strategic shift aligns with industry trends and, if executed well, should help strengthen MediaTek's customer relationships and long-term competitive advantage. Industry checks and analysis: ▎This is a long-term play, with immaterial impact on fundamentals over the next two years. The aim is to capture new growth opportunities while mitigating potential risks. 1. Opportunity: Two factors are jointly raising the value-add of system-level design: increasing server rack design complexity, driven by the adoption of technologies such as CPO and 800V HVDC, and refresh cycles comparable to those of consumer electronics. 2. Risk: Growth momentum in ASIC design may begin to slow in 2–3 years as the Semi-COT business model takes hold. 3. To secure a gross margin of at least 40–50% in its system-level integration business, MediaTek is expected to adopt an asset-light model in which it leads design and validation, leverages the strengths of Taiwan's hardware supply chain ecosystem, and outsources manufacturing. ▎Google TPU PCBA: 1. MediaTek aims to begin with TPU v10 (Icefish), while also pursuing the integration of its own CPO solution. 2. Google's hardware assembly ecosystem is already well-established, so MediaTek's chances of winning L10 are slim. ▎The L10 rack for Musk's in-house AI chips: 1. The AI compute currently being built out by Musk's companies relies mainly on Nvidia chips, so the assembly ecosystem for their own AI chip racks is not yet in place, and that's where MediaTek's opportunity lies. 2. This business still lacks clear timeline visibility. Long-term success will hinge on whether MediaTek can leverage Taiwan's hardware supply chain ecosystem and its partnership with Terafab to land L10 rack orders.

Du målar en fantastisk tavla. Någon tycker den är värd en miljard och vill köpa den. Du säger nej för du vill ha den för den är dig kär och köparen vill annat än du. Nu tycker vänstern att du ska betala 5 miljoner i skatt, varje år. Du lånar pengar mot värdet för att kunna betala skatten på orealiserat värde, och 5 miljoner blir mer varje år. Nu är din tavla omodern och ingen vill ha den. Du har nu stora lån och ingen tavla att sälja, samt kan inte låna mer och lånen du har går upp i ränta för säkerheten finns inte längre. 🤔

all these wistful mobilization fantasies in "what could have been" are slop. They need ALL POSSIBLE INPUTS, NOW, WHILE THEY HAVE ANY LEVERAGE. Chinese industry, double dealing on ASML, US datacenters, any energy. They will just be RAPED AND DISCARDED BY 2028 at this rate.