Pan Anon

@protosphinx I see you are unfamiliar with AI

The IPO system is broken. You don’t go public to raise growth capital anymore. You do it to dump equity on retail. NVIDIA went public at ~$600mn in 1999. Microsoft at 780mn. Oracle at ~270mn. Intel at 58mn! Today you won’t IPO even at $60 billion. At a $600 million valuation if you hit the jackpot and become a $60 billion company in public markets that’s a 100x return. Investing $10k as retail makes you a millionaire. This is wealth creation. At $60 billion there’s very little chance you get to $600 billion let alone 100x from there. You will certainly lose money as retail. Mathematically if you only allow $100 billion IPOs you’re basically capping upside at maybe 10-20x. There’s no more 100x or 1000x potential. And even 10x is extremely unlikely. Airbnb, Uber DoorDash are maybe 10x outcomes at best for retail investors. These are supposed be success stories of last decade. Apple Microsoft Tesla Google were all 100x opportunities for retail. So you’ve basically cut the average middle class investor out of the upside while private markets and insiders keep most of it for themselves.

@VictorTaelin Tell it to write in the style of your favorite author. Works great

is there hope that GPT models will ever talk normally? it feels like a non-English speaking coworker. or more like I need an autistic-to-English dictionary to navigate it. it almost doesn't matter how smart the model is if the communication is that dysfunctional. really sad

It's not HYPE. Cmon what else you need?

thats crazy

I need you to understand how ridiculous the trajectory is that AI is on

Can somebody find the sigmoid researcher and ask them to update the best fit?

@sama The ability to write a very high quality novel

what would you most like to see improve in our next model?

@__tinygrad__ @ChaseBrowe32432

@ChaseBrowe32432 people see 3 datapoints and fit an exponential. it's an s-curve. every technology is an s-curve. we ran ahead of moore's law mostly due to dtypes.

Mythos lands slightly above the trendline for the AI 2027 scenario

@__tinygrad__ What's the paradox where even highly intelligent people say really dumb things?

Actually it's even worse than the Moore's law about cost cause things aren't getting cheaper! A lot of the AI gains in the last 10 years come from increased spending and smaller dtypes, both of which are nearing an end and we'll be back to the normal Moore's trajectory.

Can we get rid of all the AI hype? Normally I find hype just distasteful, but this is distasteful, filling people with dread, and making hardware expensive. The third one is really annoying. It's just Moore's law and a bubble, there's no singularity.

@__tinygrad__ @ChaseBrowe32432 Whether it's an exponential or an S curve doesn't matter at all when the vertical part of that line is so fucking massive that everything that happens after that vertical is completely alien and incomprehensible to minds that existed before that vertical.

@JoshPurtell Weird take

@BrianCoryDobbs @Mars_Revealer Once again I am reminded why its so important to keep the word retard in the vernacular.

Comment from YouTube... "There are only two explanations possible: 1 - this is not a hexagon. 2 - there was a very old civilization of creatures living on Mars at the time of the Dinosaurs." Discovered by @Mars_Revealer. Full video⬇️

@janleike What's it about?

Some personal news: I am starting a new research project at Anthropic. Very excited about this! Many things are needed to make AGI go well, and alignment is only one of them. More on this soon…

@WarMonitor3 Where's AlexNet, Attention Is All You Need, AlphaGo, and o1?

The Top 10 most impactful moments in history: 1-Julius Caesar Assassination 2-Battle of the Marathon(The West defeats Persia) 3-Fall of Rome ends 1000 year roman order 4-Black Death Arrives in Europe kills half of Europe 5-Columbus reaches the Americas 6-Gutternberg prints the Bible 7-Assassination of Francis Ferdinand starts WW1 8-Dropping of the atomic bomb new nuclear order 9-Fall of the Berlin Wall 10-Hitler invading Poland starting WW2

@simpsoka You can reset my limits if you want. I tried out /goal, it ran for 2 days straight and now i'm out of tokens for the week.

Windows Codex users. Tell me the good bad and ugly. Where do we need to dig in?

@roydanroy More populist boogeyman billionaire hate. Try having principles and not simply hating classes of people.

Hot take 🔥: any company that thinks their company will reach AGI/ASI/whatever first and who is concerned about the average person and their livelihood due to their own products, should either be public or raise their next round in a way that the average person can invest. Otherwise, you're just enriching the billionaires at this point.

I feel like you only listen to your loudest constituents because I only ever hear you say things that are extremely left-coded, but if you or one of your staffers actually happens to read this, please know this - I like you and respect you as a person. I think you are intelligent and often have great ideas. What turns me off though and prevents me from giving you and people like Bernie Sanders my support is that it always sounds like you're trying to inspire a class-war. Hate the rich. Billionaires are evil. Acquiring money and being successful is frowned upon. I think you're stereotyping and demonizing groups of people for unprincipled reasons - for being rich. I find this to be a repugnant addition to already dirty identity politics.

The single largest form of theft in America is wage theft. $50 billion a year are stolen from American workers. If a billionaire amasses their wealth by underpaying their full-time workers so severely that they must rely on food assistance and government programs to survive, then no, that wealth was not earned by one individual - it was a wealth transfer subsidized by underpaid American workers and the public who get stuck with the bill for large corporations free-riding off our systems. The point is less about individual morality. It’s more about how our current economic reality of shattering inequality rewards screwing over workers and exploiting essential systems at scale. We’re talking monopoly power. Rent-seeking. Wage theft. Profiteering. Stock buybacks. Destabilizing housing markets. Companies using SNAP/EBT to underwrite their wages. Massive government subsidies or contracts to corporations following lobbying and dark money in politics with little to no oversight or accountability. Some people get enraged that I draw attention to this. That’s on them. Let them call me shrill, dumb, inexperienced, girly, uneducated - these folks will say anything to distract from or undercut the truth that working people are getting screwed, and giving people a fair shake means we must have a grown conversation about reigning in abuse of power.

@lenadroid Any good examples without naming names?

my favorite thing from GPT-5.5 party was asking OpenAI employees questions I know they can't answer and just looking into their eyes as they try to do their best poker face 😇

@Plinz No evidence R0 is anywhere near as high AFAIK

If we have a boat full of people exposed to an airborne virus with a suspected mortality rate of 30-50%, an expected R0 in the range of Covid and an incubation period of 5-6 weeks, and we respond by asking them to book flights to travel home, we totally deserve another pandemic