valueguy

@DaveHcontrarian @CapitalCosm Excellent again, David. The SOH has now been closed for close to two months. Do you worry about shortages in fertilizers causing food price inflation and emerging market crises?

Here's my latest interview with Danny @CapitalCosm, recorded 4/21/26.We talked about the war, the final parabolic leg up to a 44 year secular top, the metals & miners, bonds & the coming global bust. youtube.com/watch?v=orr0av…

@AMeshkati Bloodbath in software today. Is this a buying opportunity? To your point, the market only rallied when Semis and software were both rallying.

There is a near 0% chance that earnings are going to be the savior of the software sector following recent performance. There will be exceptions, of course. But as NOW is demonstrating currently, this will be the rule rather than the exception. Excerpt from Sunday's note.

@AMeshkati Great framing! Esp as software like $ORCL is transitioning to the AI trade! Potentially giving them opportunities to play at different layers within AI.

The semi and software trade are opposite reactions along the same curve. The curve being the rate at which AI acceleration is taking place, with semis acting as the engine, and software, at least for now, becoming collateral damage as that engine accelerates beyond what the system can immediately absorb. There is little to no discrimination taking place in the unwinding of software exposure, creating the conditions for what will likely prove to be generational opportunities as capital exits indiscriminately. What the market is grappling with is not AI itself, but the rate at which it is unfolding relative to the system’s ability to absorb it. Semiconductors represent the creation/engine of capability. Software represents the layer through which that capability is translated into real world outcomes. When the rate of capability expansion exceeds the rate of absorption, the result is not smooth adoption, but dislocation. The market, in its attempt to reconcile the two, begins to reward what is immediate and measurable, while discounting what is delayed and uncertain. This is a mispricing of the AI timeline, not an Armageddon event for each and every company that possesses code.

@Fd432128646 Ok sir. Please let me know if there is anything else I need to know.

@valueguy3 @DaveHcontrarian Self proclaimed experts you are quoting? DH is the OG of analysis and the experts cant even carry his water! Get real or sink with your self proclaimed experts !

Here's my latest interview,recorded 4/2/26 w/Elijah K Johnson of Liberty and Finance.We discussed the war,my current stock & bond mkt outlooks.Also the big upside ahead for metals & miners. youtube.com/watch?v=5iOFl2…

@TMTLongShort Dude! Canada had a defacto trading ban with China due to the US. Heck they even arrested one of their executives at U.S. direction and suffered consequences. What are you talking about?

Scroll through the comments. Anger and vitriol from the Canadians and Europeans. But not once did you see someone say “hey if Trump asked us nicely to stop trading with China we would”. And what that means is the only way to keep Chinese exports out of American supply chains is to eliminate all trade with any country that can act as a conduit. And since Pax Americana doesn’t work with a cohesive integration between Mexico and Canada as a bare minimum an *economic* bloodbath is what we’ll need. The different between an analyst and the emotional midwits calling me a retard is my predictions have been directionally and mostly accurate and theirs is wishcasting for a world that no longer exists.

@ElansFarm So China is letting Ukraine make drones? Interesting. Also, China lets US make F-35s and Patriot missiles but will not let US make drones which are a much lower spec technology. Got it!

@valueguy3 Google it so you can figure out the answer yourself. Hint... it's China. Ukraine is also running low on supplies currently. While you're at it... even though the American government wasn't involved look into how American corporations helped develop the German war machine.

What’s most impressive about this clip is that Luke says it with such a straight face.

@ElansFarm How is Ukraine making drones?

@valueguy3 You're not listening. The money buys supplies from China. If China doesn't want to sell there is no supplies whether its 1 trillion or 2 trillion. Remember you can't expect China to sell you weapons that possibly may be used on them.

@ElansFarm There is $1 trn in spending that produces a lot! They can produce Patriots, planes, munitions many other things. Don’t let the fear mongering muddy the facts.

@valueguy3 Right now US doesn't have the capacity to produce anything. Nato has said that Russia alone has outprouduced then during the Ukraine war. China controls the supply chain for US defense.

@DaveHcontrarian Lol..I knew you would focus on the word ‘experts’ as been following you for 5 years! Asking because it makes sense when 20% of Qatar LNG doesn’t come back for 5 years and many months for some other capacity to come back.

@valueguy3 When have ever concerned myself with what most experts think? Just let it play out.

@TMTLongShort Which prediction of yours has been correct? You predicted Trump TACO on China due to rare earth chock hold?

@LukeGromen @MartinSkold2 They are not ‘dead anyways’. They and their families have huge economic interests that are being destroyed. Yes, they have some leverage right now but it’s not infinite. The U.S. can turn Iran into a parking lot and that will be ‘dead anyway’.

1. US negotiating position to the IRGC is "You're dead either way" & "You're dead if you negotiate". If you're dead either way, why not take your adversary down w/ you? 2. Fmr. CIC of IRGC said 3 weeks ago on Iranian state media their war goal is to collapse the global economy, which is already underway (see Asia, EU, etc.) & which will go critical in another 2-3 weeks if Hormuz stays closed. All Iran has to do is last another 2-3 weeks to earn a strategic victory, even if it is Pyrrhic.

Unless they produced more missiles than we thought. Or unless they’re being resupplied by China. Or unless they can make do with their arsenal of tens of thousands of Shahed drones. Or unless the US fiscal and diplomatic positions collapse meanwhile from supply chain disruption. They have plenty to work with, and if they survive, it’s good enough for them. And if they end up running a tollbooth, even better - in fact, they get to replace their dying fiscal model based on raw crude exportation with an extortion racket. And that’s looking like what’s going to happen.

@TMTLongShort @compoundpapi You have been wrong in almost everything you have argued. There is no 4D chess anywhere. It’s a shit show. I don’t know why you will be right here but good to have your confidence.

Before we fully turn the screws on Europe we will annihilate Canada. Full medieval shit. No prisoners. It’s going to be a bloodbath. And Europe is going to watch in horror and confusion. And then they’ll ask themselves “if he could do this to Canada what might he do to Spain” Elbows up, USMCA will be fun 🫡

@LukeGromen @TFL1728 Why can’t the U.S. build or buy cheap drone based counter measures like Ukraine has done. Yes, they don’t have enough right now and yes it will take some time but this is pure fear mongering.

@TFL1728 3/ This is the last point. A veteran warfighter told us a year ago this was already happening in the Red Sea. You're insisting it isn't happening again. Burden of proof is on you to show why it's different now v. what Prince said was happening a year ago & would happen again

@DaveHcontrarian Is this a fake out?

@DaveHcontrarian @pinnacledigest Thanks again David. Do you then expect these breakouts in XLE to fail? From a TA perspective the move seems solid. I am just trying to learn on when to trust these cup and handle breakouts and when not.

@valueguy3 @pinnacledigest Every period is different. For some reason retail always wants to compare. My forecasts are based on my current analysis. Doesn't mean i am always right and you are welcome to a different view. I'm just giving you what I see based on all of my analysis, not one thing.

Here's my latest interview recorded 2/11/26 with Alex Smith @PinnacleDigest.We discussed the coming final stock market run into a secular top along with my very bullish views on the bond & metal markets.Also discussed the coming bust & the cycle beyond. youtube.com/watch?v=mwiGH5…

@DaveHcontrarian @pinnacledigest Thanks David. I’ve followed you since 2020 and in 2022 you were confident and we had a 20% drawdown. Some of these conditions are very similar. Can you say why you don’t expect a repeat?

@valueguy3 @pinnacledigest My forecast and targets tell you what I think.

@DaveHcontrarian @realLoganMoody Thanks. Given your forecast, the economy should be decelerating for the bust to begin? This is the opposite.

@valueguy3 @realLoganMoody That's the narrative that's caused the stocks to be where they are. no surprise. I've talked about industrials being a favored sector due to reshoring, data centers & expanding the grid. We're seeing normal rotation. tech was extended & is correcting. Energy seen as value.

Had a good conversation with @realLoganMoody, recorded 2/4/26 where we talked about the stock market melt-up,the metals sell-off & big rally to follow.Also bonds,the Fed & the coming global bust. youtube.com/watch?v=kzQ4lO…