Compounding Lab

Everyone models Philip Morris as a cigarette trader, but the real product isn’t tobacco anymore - it’s nicotine. Here is my $PM valuation model. Key assumptions: 1. Explicit 5Y/5Y growth @ 6%/4% 2. Long-term growth in perpetuity @ 2% 3. Stable EBITDA margin - no expansion 4. WACC @ 6.1% 5. An EBITDA exit multiple of 16.2 6. Tax rate 22% 7. The input that drives reinvestment is the most recent Sales to Capital ratio = 0.9 Follow my Substack for regular actionable investing frameworks, incl. a more detailed DCFs.

@YodaStockInvest Analysts tend to be systematically optimistic.....they more often overestimate stock prices. And you are being even more optimistic.....🤔 If you stand with what you say shouldn't you be less optimistic?

@CompoundingLab Analysts are lame as FUCK

My 2030 BULL CASE price targets for the stocks in my portfolio 1. $AMD to $982 2. $NBIS to $1075 3. $IREN to $380 4. $HIMS to $142 5. $SOFI to $132 6. $KRKNF / $PNG.V to $49 7. $ONDS to $50 For this, obviously a lot needs to go right, including the economy. Time to lock-in these 5 years🫡

@BramVGenechten Still need to work it out, but I hate Teams after being on Google for many years )) But the discount is appealing, can't argue.

@CompoundingLab True. What's current fair value for you?

$MSFT at its lowest valuation in +6Y. Opportunity?

$CSL 10Y ROIC, Average 11% ✔️ 10Y Revenue, CAGR 4% 🚫 FCFE 3Y Average, per share $21 FCF 3Y yield 6% Narrow Moat ✔️ Market Price $337 Fair value $367 Shares UNDERVALUED Discount (-)/Premium (+) -8% ✔️

@BradoCapital Multiples reflect forward-looking, not past trends.

New to the name... why have multiples continued to compress since IPO? 13x next years earnings $DLO

$FFIV 10Y ROIC, Average 14% 10Y ROIC, Coefficient of variation 37% FCFE 3Y Average, per share $12.9 FCF 3Y yield 4% Narrow Moat Market Price $289 Fair value $280 Shares FAIRLY VALUED Discount (-)/Premium (+) 3%

@nikita_yoush @MAXALEXHARDY Батя шнягу не подгоняет. Раз утверждает, то есть инфа 😁

@MAXALEXHARDY И где вы такую траву берёте...

Кстати, есть такой чел по фамилии Яшин. Типа оппозиционер. Он давно завербован "соратниками" Шойгу/Кириенко, и в случае успеха государственного переворота, именно его хотели (а может и сейчас хотят) выдвинуть в качестве "нового либерального лидера". Абсолютно мутный этот Яшин, между прочим. Там ещё и Юра Дудь при каких-то делах, но это неважно. МАКСИМУС

$A2A.MI 10Y ROIC, Average 6% 🚫 10Y Revenue, CAGR 11% ✔️ FCFE 3Y Average, per share 0.04 EUR FCF 3Y yield 2% None Moat 🚫 Market Price 2.4 EUR Fair value 2.6 EUR Shares UNDERVALUED Discount (-)/Premium (+) -9% ✔️

@YodaStockInvest Big progress Yoda. Keep it up!

I started this X account in May last year. Since then, I’ve already grown to 14K followers. Comparison is the thief of joy: sometimes even I feel like I’m not growing fast enough! Nonsense. Wanted to take a moment to thank all of you! Seriously, it’s insane how so many people from all around the world interact with the content of me, a random 22 year old from The Netherlands. I appreciate you all❤️ Just getting started!

$SONY 10Y ROIC, Average 4% 🚫 10Y Revenue, CAGR 5% 🚫 FCFE 3Y Average, per share $2 FCF 3Y yield 8% Wide Moat ✔️ Market Price $20 Fair value $28 Shares UNDERVALUED Discount (-)/Premium (+) -27% ✔️

$DOCU 10Y ROIC, Average -5% 🚫 10Y Revenue, CAGR 29% ✔️ FCFE 3Y Average, per share $5 FCF 3Y yield 10% None Moat 🚫 Market Price $47 Fair value $63 Shares UNDERVALUED Discount (-)/Premium (+) -25% ✔️

@MAXALEXHARDY @olegkrasawin Это бандитизм, не коммунизм.

@olegkrasawin Это и есть коммунизм. Куда шли, туда и пришли.

Может кто-то объяснит, как так получилось, что мы почти сто лет шли к коммунизму, а пришли к этой бесстыжей, вороватой роже?

@sashakmett1991 @grok Новиков действительно говорил это?

Очередной символ русской культуры с душком параши, задается вечным уже вопросом - А нас за что? Должно быть недоволен возвращением войны в родные ебеня. Вот не нравятся ему гробы под домом. Не вдохновляют на создание новых приблатненных частушек с вертухайским припевом.

$MDB 10Y ROIC, Average -21% 🚫 10Y Revenue, CAGR 44% ✔️ FCFE 3Y Average, per share $3 FCF 3Y yield 1% None Moat 🚫 Market Price $261 Fair value $327 Shares UNDERVALUED Discount (-)/Premium (+) -20% ✔️

@fiscal_ai Maybe a slightly higher, but not super higher.

30% annual revenue growth for 2 decades. Current EV/EBIT: 7.5x Does lululemon deserve a higher multiple? $LULU

10Y ROIC, Average 6% 🚫 10Y Revenue, CAGR 7% ✔️ FCFE 3Y Average, per share 289 GBP FCF 3Y yield 7% Wide Moat ✔️ Market Price 4,311 GBP Fair value 4,245 GBP Shares FAIRLY VALUED Discount (-)/Premium (+) 2% ⏸

$RL 10Y ROIC, Average 7% 🚫 10Y Revenue, CAGR -1% 🚫 FCFE 3Y Average, per share $11.0 FCF 3Y yield 3% Narrow Moat ☑ Market Price $330 Fair value $406 Shares UNDERVALUED Discount (-)/Premium (+) -19% ☑