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Whatever happens in the coming days, there will be a lot of talk about SWIFT and its role in the response to Russia’s actions.
I hope this short thread makes you feel more knowledgeable on the subject.
Follow me @SahilBloom for more simple explanations on business and finance.
A cutoff from SWIFT may also have longer-term second-order effects on Bitcoin and non-fiat currencies.
The base logic: Russia may seek to circumvent the impact of the restrictions via a combination of its in-house system and a push away from the USD-reserve currency hegemony.
Russia has also been building an in-house system since 2014—the last time SWIFT cutoff was threatened—which may mean they are able to temper some of the impact a cutoff would have on its economy.
Though it appears most experts still expect the impact would be significant.
It is a key energy supplier to Europe and the world.
It is an exporter of materials critical to the manufacturing of jet engines, semiconductors, automotives, electronics, and fertilizers.
Cutting off Russia from SWIFT would impact the flow of payments for these industries.
With Russia’s most recent actions in Ukraine, cutting off SWIFT access is very much “on the table” as part of a sweeping sanctions package.
The challenge is that it is a real double-edged sword.
Russia is a massive economy with tentacles that reach all around the world…