Fishful Thinking

Brilliant thread on polling (and takeaways you can extrapolate from Maine U.S. senate race).

I’m betting on VP Harris, Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Governor West Moore. Them other ones are not worth my time.

Cybertruck replacing Raptor + Porsche

A generation of people in their 20s and 30s was told that if they do all this homework and take these AP classes and run up this debt and get their degree, their place in the upper-middle class would be secure. And suffice it to say it hasn’t worked out that way for a lot of them

Someone just hit a $2 million Powerball ticket at…. you guessed it, the luckiest place in Massachusetts: the Old South Diner on Nantucket. This is the FIFTH million dollar prize sold at the diner over the past two years. 🤯

They’re cutting your healthcare to pay for a war that’s raising your gas prices.

DOJ OFFICIAL SAYS FBI DIRECTOR'S PERSONAL EMAIL WAS BREACHED BY HACKERS

NEWS: FBI Director Kash Patel’s personal email has been hacked by Iran-linked group Handala Hack, DOJ says. The group released personal photos and documents after claiming it breached the FBI, warning its security was “nothing more than a joke.”

The US bond market is in major trouble today. Just hours after President Trump's "10-day pause" of strikes on Iranian power plants, yields are at their highest level of the Iran War yet. The 10Y Note Yield is up to 4.47% with mortgage rates hitting fresh 7-month highs. In less than one month, markets have gone from discussing rate cuts to rate hikes, with the base case showing a Fed PAUSE for the next 18 months. Keep in mind, the Fed was cutting interest rates because the labor market was weak, and it remains weak. However, inflation expectations have just become an even bigger problem than the labor market. This is objectively unsustainable.

This is pretty crazy.

Kamala Harris looks like a 2028 candidate. That is bad news for Democrats.

Before the war, Iran was exporting 1.1M barrels of oil at $47 a barrel Right now they're exporting 1.5M barrels of oil at ~$120 a barrel

I've so far avoided dramatics because I would be accused of bias. To be clear: this is the worst energy crisis of our lifetimes, well beyond what any sober mind could have envisioned, with no end in sight. The level of complacency to me is astounding.