Vaibhav Joshi

I genuinely think India’s power transmission and cable story is a multi year compounding story… and we are still very early ⚡️ Not early in the way people casually use the word in markets. Early because the real demand shock hasn’t even arrived yet. India just touched ~250 GW peak power demand for the first time ever this summer. And this happened BEFORE: • mass EV adoption • AI data center explosion • semiconductor fabs • full manufacturing scale up That’s what makes this interesting. Because India’s per capita electricity consumption is still only ~1,400 kWh. China is at ~6,500 kWh. USA is above ~12,000 kWh. Think about how absurd that gap is. We are trying to build a $10 trillion economy while consuming barely 20-25% of the electricity China consumes per person. At some point, that gap HAS to close. And when it does, India will need one of the biggest electrical infrastructure buildouts in its history. That’s exactly why the government has already committed ₹9.16 TRILLION toward transmission upgrades by 2032. Not generation. Transmission. Because the real challenge is no longer producing electricity. The challenge is moving electricity fast enough to where demand is exploding. And demand is exploding everywhere simultaneously. India’s electricity demand is projected to grow ~6.4% CAGR till 2030. Then comes AI. India’s data center capacity was ~1.4 GW in 2024. Another ~5 GW is expected by 2030. And AI server racks consume 5-6x more power than traditional cloud infrastructure. Every AI query eventually becomes: a transformer, cable, switchgear and transmission line story. Then add EVs. Then add fully electrified railways. Indian Railways alone eliminated ~17.8 BILLION liters of diesel consumption after electrification. Then add renewables. India wants 500 GW non fossil fuel capacity by 2030 and plans to add ~470 GW solar + wind capacity over the next decade. But here’s where the real bottleneck starts appearing: The best renewable energy locations are sitting in Rajasthan, Gujarat and Ladakh… while the actual demand sits in Mumbai, Delhi, Bengaluru and industrial corridors. So India now has no choice but to rebuild the electrical spine of the country. Transmission network expansion: ~4.85 lakh ckm → ~6.48 lakh ckm. Transformation capacity: 1,251 GVA → 2,342 GVA. This is not incremental growth. This is an entirely new grid being built in real time. And this is where the cable story becomes massive. Because globally, high voltage cable capacity is already tight. Europe and the US are aggressively spending on: • HVDC corridors • offshore wind interconnectors • grid modernisation • renewable evacuation Global cable giants like Prysmian, Nexans and NKT already have multi year order visibility because HV/EHV cable demand is exploding globally. And these are not easy factories to build. HV/EHV cable plants require: • specialised machinery • technical approvals • years of execution expertise • very high capital investment Which means supply cannot suddenly appear overnight. That’s why utilisation levels across serious cable manufacturers are running extremely high. And now India is entering the same cycle. The Indian wires & cables industry itself is expected to move toward a ~₹1.9 lakh crore opportunity over the coming years driven by transmission, renewables, railways, real estate, industrial capex and exports. And look at what Indian players are doing already: Polycab already commands ~25-26% market share in India’s wires & cables industry and has been aggressively expanding manufacturing capacity across segments. KEI Industries is scaling capacity heavily toward EPC + EHV opportunities because transmission demand visibility is becoming massive. RR Kabel is expanding aggressively after strong volume growth and export traction. Dynamic Cables and Universal Cables are directly exposed to transmission and utility capex where demand visibility is now stretching multiple years out. This is important because once utilisation crosses ~75-80%, cable businesses stop behaving like commodity businesses… …and start behaving like pricing power businesses. That’s the phase which may now begin in India. Because suddenly every meter of cable matters: • HV cables • EHV cables • underground transmission • renewable evacuation • industrial electrification • data center cabling This is why companies across the ecosystem are reporting insane numbers: • Hitachi Energy orders up 365% YoY • Siemens order book above ₹43,000 crore • BHEL order book near ₹2.4 lakh crore • PGCIL pipeline above ₹3 lakh crore till FY32 And then there are cable players: • Polycab • KEI Industries • RR Kabel • Finolex Cables • Dynamic Cables • Universal Cables Most people still see cables as simple housing wires. I think the market is slowly realising they are becoming strategic infrastructure assets. That’s the funny thing about infrastructure cycles. Nobody gets excited in the beginning because wires, transformers and substations don’t feel exciting. But neither did telecom towers once upon a time. Then the entire digital economy ended up sitting on top of them. People are looking at AI apps. I’m looking at the electrical backbone underneath them. That’s where the real supercycle may be hiding ⚡️

Those who think Modi bowed down completely in front of Trump you are not wrong. But ek kahawat yaad aa gai, kaam nikalwane k lie gadhe ko bhi baap banana padta hai. Dr. Manmohan Singh might appear to be a weak leader, but he silently took India from a forex crisis to a solid economy. ​Remember when India was acting tough like, hum to Russia se hi oil lenge, and look what happened. What they should have done instead is diplomatically keep Trump happy on the outside, and silently purchase the Russian oil in the background.

Microfinance is on Track the biggest concern Crude is already down. Those who bought MFI stocks dont sell too early party just got started long way to go.

@SureshKBN UK FTA will make india competitive again x.com/i/status/20676…

But here is the part that actually excites me the most. For ten years, Indian business owners were sending their growth money to Bangladesh and Vietnam just to get access to lower taxes in places like Britain and Europe. That money is finally coming back home, and that is not a one time trade story, that is years of factories and jobs being rebuilt inside India. Markets usually underestimate this kind of big structural change in the first six months, and then overestimate it a year later. Right now, we are still early.

On the home textile side, 🔷Welspun Living and 🔷Indo Count Industries both see their tax on bedsheets and towels drop from 12% straight to zero. Indo Count has the largest amount of spare factory capacity in the entire sector, sitting at 30%, which matters a lot when the whole opportunity depends on who can actually take on new orders the fastest.

In Q1 2026 Chinas share of UK apparel imports fell 6.3% year on year while Indian shipments jumped 13.4% to 362.8 million dollars. That single data point is the opening line of a much bigger trade story most people havent connected yet 🧵👇

Imagine buying a stock purely because Adani is about to take it over, dreaming of a quick pop, and three days later your entire holding turns into a flat zero 😭. Not a hypothetical. This is exactly what just happened to lakhs of retail investors in this stock and the full story behind it is one of the most brutal lessons in how Indian markets actually work. 👇 Jaiprakash Associates Ltd wasn't some random penny stock. It was a genuine industrial empire. Started in 1979 as a small civil contracting firm by Jaiprakash Gaur, it rode India's infra boom of the 90s and 2000s to become the third largest cement maker in the country, built over 12000 MW of hydro projects, ran luxury hotels and even constructed the Buddh International Circuit for F1. Real assets, real scale. But the same leverage that built the empire is what buried it. By 2015 group debt had ballooned to around 61285 crore. Real estate delays in Noida froze homebuyer advances JAL used as working capital, YEIDA cancelled a 1000 hectare land allotment over unpaid dues, and even selling the crown jewel cement business to UltraTech for 16189 crore in 2017 couldn't plug the hole. By 2026 total defaults crossed 57000 crore. Then came the bidding war everyone tracked closely. Adani and Vedanta both wanted JAL. Vedanta actually offered a higher headline number, 16726 crore against Adani's 14535 crore. But Vedanta wanted to spread payments over 5 years while Adani put 6005 crore upfront and the rest within just 2 years. On a present value basis lenders preferred Adani's faster cash even though it was nominally smaller, and NARCL controlling 85 percent of voting power pushed it through with a massive 93.81 percent approval. Vedanta fought all the way to NCLAT and the Supreme Court and lost both times. Takeaway for anyone watching IBC deals, money today beats a bigger promise tomorrow almost every single time. Now the part that should really scare retail traders chasing acquisition headlines. NCLT orally approved Adani's plan late afternoon on March 17. Traders who saw Adani's name attached to a sub 1 rupee stock rushed in on the 15th, 16th and 17th expecting a rocket move. Trading got suspended the very next morning. Those buyers were stuck holding shares they could never sell again. On June 18 the scrip got formally delisted, and under the absolute priority rule in Section 53 of IBC, every single one of the 6.5 lakh equity shareholders got literally nil. Why? Because JAL owed more than 57000 crore and the entire 14535 crore recovery didn't even fully cover the secured lenders, who themselves took a 79 percent haircut. By the time the payout waterfall reached equity there was nothing left, not even a single rupee. Small relief, tax law now treats this extinguishment as a transfer, so investors can book it as a capital loss and carry it forward for 8 years against future gains. The real lesson here is simple. An acquirer's big name lighting up your feed does not automatically mean your shares are worth something. Always check where you actually sit in the payout waterfall before you buy hope.

@sourodeep_b It's a F&O stock circuit gets revised in F&O stocks.

@InvestWithJoshi How did the stock go above the circuit limit? Now at 10.5%. Circuit limits get revised mid session?

Locked in 10% UC early signs but i think worse is over for Kalyan 🚀

@Asan_research we should stabilize near 90-92 in some time.

I think rupee will come back to below 90 levels in next 3 months

@manish21688 Pure MFI NBFCs will always do better in the growth phase.

@InvestWithJoshi Utkarsh small finance bank can also do well from here. MFI stress reducing and got bit war chest with their QIP sometime back.

The MFI space should do great now that all concerns regarding crude oil and LPG, which were dampening sentiments, have gone. Q1 FY 27 will be great and will reassure the markets that the MFI cycle has started its growth phase again. Stocks one can track: 1️⃣ Satin Creditcare 2️⃣ Arman 3️⃣ Muthoot Microfin

@JimmyGupta111 Then no options available.

@InvestWithJoshi It's ban by SEBI

Nifty Microcap has rallied 30% from its March bottom. Investors who waited for certainty instead of opportunity are still watching from the sidelines and their eventual FOMO could add more fuel to this move. Eyes on the next all-time high. 🚀

@JimmyGupta111 Motilal Oswal Nifty Microcap 250 Index Fund Direct Growth

@InvestWithJoshi Any fund? Nifty Micro 250