LongShortFishin
4.1K posts
Can we have a bottlers FC update from @piersmorgan ????
Piers Morgan@piersmorgan
It’s ON. #Quadruple
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@TheShortBear Exactly and that’s why Trumps approach; considered highly unpalatable by most Europeans is ultimately going to prove the best medicine. A hard pill to swallow but one that can offer the best outcome for the future health of the European land and its people. 🙏🏻
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Europe will either get rid of all the red tape and bureaucracy or it will die.
Europe has been subsidizing military costs at the cost of the US (paid by US to have power and influence in the European and middle east against Russia and China).
That allowed Europe to offer democratic, near socialistic tools such as healthcare.
As US pulls back from its alliances, the budget increase for military, intelligence and alike will squeeze the little to no existing growth they have remaining.
For years, decades Europe has been resting on the achievements of its ancestors. Good times created weak man. It went as far as fully changing its demographics and taking on a massive burden through its immigration policy.
Europe has one shot at this now.
It either rethinks its anti-capitalistic tendencies, anti-rich and success or it faces its exodus in my view through a mix of very high and increasing debt burden, no growth, civil unrest, immigration costs and talent flight.
I believe Merz and France have understood this hence the recent speeches and I hope they actually go on to reshape the general mindset... A very hard task but an existential one.
Biggest indicator that things will shift: Poland, which has implemented that plan for a while now and has the highest growth of any European countries.
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@joeshortsqueeze That’s such an accurate way to describe this place rn. Laughing stock
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@LongShortFishin I can only imagine since they’ve done their best to suck every ounce of testosterone out of the rest of society 😂
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ESPN constantly shilling women’s sports is just weird. Seems like they’re just tripling down on the garbage that made everyone stop watching in the first place. Bizarre behavior
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@joeshortsqueeze Looks awesome mate. Very jealous of the US sports scene in general. Been to some great college games too for various other sports. Always such an event 💪🏻
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@LongShortFishin I shouldn’t complain: very blessed to have MLB baseball so close to me. Our old stadium was amazing but I was one of the few fans that didn’t mind the 110 degree August home games, so they built this new one with a roof. I haven’t gotten used to it yet
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I was never able to pinpoint why I don’t feel at home in a Globe Life Field until the other day when it hit me: there’s no organ music. Baseball isn’t the same without it. They instead pipe in a constant wave of pop music at top volume during downtimes. Idk, it just feels cold and dystopian to me. This should be an easy fix @Rangers
Joey Short Squeeze@joeshortsqueeze
A little exhibition baseball this afternoon
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Could be a long post but....
My trading journey over the past 5–6 years has been a rollercoaster.
In 2020, things felt “easy.” I made around $70K trading penny stocks.
At the start of 2021, I gained another $100K in just the first two months… and then gave it all back during the March–April downtrend. That was my first real lesson in how fast markets can humble you.
2022 was a tough bear market. I went heavy into options, trying to short moves, but constant bear market rallies and poor risk management led to more losses.
My biggest mistake still stays with me — losing my husband’s IRA (around $300K–$400K). If I had simply invested even a portion into something like NVIDIA (NVDA), it could have grown significantly over time. That realization changed how I think about risk forever.
From mid-2023, I got serious about learning—charting, studying patterns, watching videos, and learning from other traders. Through all of this, my software job kept me afloat even while I was making mistakes.
I transitioned into futures trading, but treated it part-time. I would trade 1–2 accounts, lose them, take a break, and repeat. Progress was slow and inconsistent.
In October 2024, I got my first payout of $800 with Apex. It was small, but it meant something—it showed me this could work.
By mid-2025, I believed I could do better if I gave trading my full focus. I took a leap and resigned from my job. Still, across 2023–2025, I was net negative around $10K in futures.
2026 is where things are starting to shift. I’m finally seeing payouts and some consistency.
I still feel FOMO when I see others posting big wins. And every time I chase that feeling, I lose accounts. So now I stay grounded, control my emotions, and focus on one goal—building consistent “monthly income” first.
This month is special. For the first time, I’ve matched my previous monthly salary through trading.
And through all of this, I want to thank my husband. He never gave up on my dream—even after the losses, the setbacks, and even when I decided to quit my job to pursue trading full-time. That support means everything to me.
There’s still a long way to go—especially to rebuild what I lost from my husband’s IRA. But after everything, I’m taking it one step at a time.
Grateful for the lessons, the setbacks, and the growth. This journey is far from over until my husband gets his
Thanks to @PharmD_KS and his levels...
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@AlphaMind101 Thanks. I appreciate the reply as always 🙏🏻
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Yes and no — I know that sounds like a cop‑out. Change does happen, but it isn’t always obvious at first. You may first notice a shift in your process, but that’s not the whole story: an identity shift follows, and over time your process and identity align, this is the change that has happened, but its not a clear line.
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The 4 Stages of Trading Evolution: Why You Can’t Skip Versions
Trader v1.0: The Optimist (The Entry Point)
This is the starting point. High on confidence, low on competence.
The Bug: Overvalues the chance of success; undervalues market complexity.
The Result: Temporary "lucky" P&L that eventually gets clawed back.
Survival Rate: 90% are eliminated here.
The Professional Shortcut: v1.0 to v1.1
For Retail Traders, the jump from 1.0 to 1.1 is a long, lonely bridge. But for Institutional Professionals, v1.0 and v1.01 often merge.
Pros often see a 50% advancement to v1.1 almost immediately. This "fast-track" happens because of:
Internal Mentoring: Access to senior oversight and seasoned perspectives.
High-Intensity Exposure: A higher volume of market experience packed into a shorter timeframe.
Forced Accountability: The institutional requirement to act and react under pressure builds "muscle memory" far quicker.
Trader v1.1: The Survivor (Years 3–6)
You’ve been through the fire and stayed in the game. You are wiser, humbler, and less arrogant.
The Alpha: You start producing genuine profits, not just luck.
The Flaw: You’ve adapted to current conditions. When the regime shifts, v1.1 often breaks. You aren't yet built for all seasons.
Trader v1.2: The Pro (Years 8–12)
This is where a long-term career becomes a reality. This is the "Tour Pro" stage.
The Key: Adaptive Intelligence. You don't just trade a system; you respond to shifts in environment and emotional state.
The Mindset: Setbacks aren’t catastrophes—they are accepted as the "cost of doing business."
The Status: You have the resilience to stay on the circuit for decades.
Trader v1.3: The Elite (The 0.001%)
The names etched on the trophies: Druckenmiller, Tudor-Jones, Buffett, Qullamaggie.
The Analogy: If v1.2 is a Tour Pro, v1.3 is Djokovic or Tiger Woods.
The Secret: It looks like a "gift," but it is actually forged through extreme commitment and struggle. They are the top 10% of the top 10%.
The Bottom Line
You cannot skip versions. You cannot "buy" v1.3. You have to endure the bugs of 1.0 and the volatility of 1.1 to reach the robustness of 1.2.
In a professional firm, the "software updates" happen faster due to the environment, but the struggle is still mandatory.
The goal isn't to be them. The goal is to become the highest possible version of you.
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Iran just Dikembe Mutumbo’ed Jared Kushner.
IYKYK
Wall St Engine@wallstengine
IRAN REJECTS CEASEFIRE, WON'T NEGOTIATE WITH PARTY THAT VIOLATED COVENANTS CONFIRM THAT WE WILL REACH OUR STRATEGIC GOALS BEFORE DECIDING TO END THE CEASEFIRE. THE WAR CAN END IF IRAN REACHES ITS STRATEGIC GOALS. SOURCE: FARS
Suomi
@SPXTrades Not hard to believe at all given the alternative
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Still hard to believe more than half the country chose this f**king moron as our President 🤦♂️
Russian Market@runews
#Day1: I won. Iran, total victory. #Day2: I won again. People can’t believe it. #Day3: Still winning. Experts say nobody wins like I win. #Day4: Victory keeps coming. The fake news won’t report it. #Day5: Everyone is talking about how much I’m winning. Unbelievable. #Day6: They said it couldn’t be done. I keep winning. They admit it privately. #Day7: Nobody thought winning could be this winning. I did. #Day8: Even my critics say I won today. Incredible. #Day9: Winning so much it’s exhausting. But I don’t get tired. #Day10: I’ve won more than anyone, ever, in history. True story. #Day11: Another day, another win. People are shocked. #Day12: Experts stunned. They can’t believe the scale of my victories. #Day13: Winning keeps happening. Everyone wants my strategy. #Day14: Media silent, but I won again. They’re jealous. #Day15: The biggest win yet. History books will remember this. #Day16: People said it was impossible. I proved them wrong. #Day17: I’m winning everywhere. Even Iran agrees. #Day18: Another day of tremendous victory. Everybody loves it. #Day19: The fake news still doesn’t report it. Sad. #Day20: I keep winning. My family proud. #Day21: Historic winning. Nobody has ever won like this. #Day22: Every day is a victory day. They can’t keep up. #Day23: Winning more than anyone imagined. I’m making history. #Day24: Media hates it, but I won again. Iran wants a deal. #Day25: The ultimate win. People everywhere saying “How does he do it?” I won, bigly.
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This morning I have finally closed the Gold short I took on 3rd March.
It’s been the biggest trade of my career.
I want to thank everyone in EFL who sat through it with me and had to listen to me talking about it incessantly. As I said at the time, I was a long way outside my comfort zone.
I’ve made tens of thousands of trades across 25 years. I’m in at one level and out at the next. I’ve held something like this only a handful of times.
I should feel elated. And part of me does.
But I’ve spent the last three days writing my book and reliving a lot of painful times. This morning I’m too numb to feel what I probably should.
That’s trading. That’s life.
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@PeterLBrandt It would be interesting to find out how many of the “1000” quit before years 3-5. I would estimate c.80%. Could either of you guys shed any light? 🙏🏻
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Steven, we at Factor Research and Trading have analyzed this and many other studies and reports. There is a lot of data available on the short and long term success of market speculation. Some private, some academic, some proprietary, some from exchanges and even government data (CFTC).
The data is clear
The chance that someone new to active market speculation will last the 3 to 5 years to figure out the game and then produce a 40% avg ROR for four years with only one losing year is 1 in 1,000 -- confirming your data
Steven Goldstein@AlphaMind101
Jason Shapiro (@Crowded_Mkt_Rpt) is spot-on. I recently spent time dissecting data from a landmark study of the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TSE). It wasn't an easy task—there are plenty of analytical tripwires and the data is incredibly dense—but the conclusions are a massive reality check for anyone in this game. The dataset covered the entire market’s transaction history over a 15-year period (1992–2006), analyzing the performance of roughly 450,000 individual day traders. - check out the work of Brad Barber, Yi-Tsiu Lee, Yu-Jane Liu, and Terrance Odean for this. - “Do Individual Day Traders Make Money? Evidence from Taiwan” The Reality of the Numbers: The 1%: While about 20% of traders might have a profitable year at some point, only about 1,000 to 4,000 (less than 1%) were able to earn a profit consistently year after year once you factored in commissions and taxes. The Friction Trap: For the majority, any "gross" profits were entirely swallowed by high-frequency transaction costs. They weren't just fighting the market; they were fighting the math. The 0.1% Club: The study did find a tiny group of traders (the top 500) who were incredibly skilled and earned significant, consistent Alpha. We’re talking about people like Jason Shapiro, Mark Minervini, Kristjan Kullamägi, and Peter Brandt. These aren't just "the 1%." We are talking about the 0.1%—roughly 1 in a thousand. The Conclusion:Genuine skill exists, it isn’t luck, but nor it overnight journey. Jason has been on the AlphaMind Podcast several times and has been vocal about the years of pain and "hard yards" required to reach that level. @markminervini told us the exact same thing when he joined us last year. If you expect this to be a quick journey, expect to be part of the 99%. Even if you make it into the 1%, you should still be aiming to be the 10% of that group who truly becomes "special." The path to the 0.1% is paved with persistence. There are no shortcuts.
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