Jonny Quest

@TailThatWagsDog “See something juicy ... go to the options chain and go with the flow exploiting optionality.” - would you please elaborate on what you mean by this. Ty

This group of Thinkscript studies ... loaded into Watchlists compares buying premium to selling premium. (Premium = Cost x Volume) These studies run *live* during regular trading hours ... constantly displaying and sorting flows ... ticking away ... leaders at a glance. • Net Flow is the best predictor of %Change. • For buying, the sweet spot is high net flow + a high buy ratio. • For selling, the sweet spot is high net outflow + a high sell ratio. See something juicy ... go to the options chain and go with the flow exploiting optionality.

@TheOneLanceB Agree that #2 is less likely as the risk for a broker where your AI agent misbehaves and you lose a gazillion $ may be a risk they don't want to bear. Devil in details of course

THE FUTURE OF TRADING Curious what everyone thinks. What does the future of trading hold for us? -Area I’m most confident in: trading hours will expand across products until all become 24/7. -High-confidence: the “everything” store of trading products will arrive. Likely through tokenization, a brokerage will allow you to trade literally anything, anywhere. The biggest benefit for traders will be ability to cross-margin across assets. (Imagine one account for crypto, commodities, stocks, even homes or trad assets!!) -Low confidence but kinda seems inevitable: AI will be able to learn from our trading data / feedback and we will be able to build trading agents that execute everything for us.

@Muhatcapital "Forward returns are measured cumulatively over the next three and six months after the episode ends". How, specifically, is the episode ending defined? thx

Cue the “Average SP500 Returns After $VIX > 30” charts. Here’s ours: muhat.com/blog/volatilit…

@TheShortBear We appreciate you very much

I just want to say I would rather talk trading with you all, truly. I spent the last 13 years sharing trading ideas, fully for free, without agenda, sharing my first trades all the way to being featured in market wizards. For this decade I’ve provided insights into what I believed to be truths hidden in plan sight, from trade ideas, contrarian takes, lining up incentives and have become one of the best traders out there through it as the truth prevailed. This dire situation has very high stakes and as propaganda from all sides hits it is sometimes hard to be very precise as these situations are extremely dynamic and involved a lot of deception. The issue is mainly that we moved from letting the economy run without much interference to full meddling on all sides. Remember a year ago, business leaders were the most optimistic in years. We were pulling out of conflicts, we were getting rid of regulatory tape and letting the might of the US business system unleash into the biggest technological boom ever. It all shifted when control became the goal over winning long term. Control of media, politics, foreign affairs, business… Everything shifted towards giving the illusion of winning at the cost of the truth. Every major part of the government was handled as if we tried to be in the spotlight, not to win but to be controlled. Left vs right is what they make it to be, to get people to lash out at each other when we actually for the vast majority want the same thing. One way, no debate, no pushback. Thus the markets became a reflection of the only thing that matters… Trades died off in October, one sector after the next fell apart. I have simply been sitting back building tools I’ll share with you soon, not pushing much buttons and if so taking cuts on almost all of the long ideas. That said should market conditions improve through the end of this war and this meddling decrease you’ll see no more of these posts. I am the first one to look forward to it. Finally i want to say I deeply love the USA and want it to prosper. The last thing i want is for it to fail and thus I became vocal about it. I know the vast majority simply stays silent and the smallest most vocal part shows up as the tip of the iceberg, often to contradict and criticize. For those that will stay for this journey, I appreciate you and know trading and investing are what i want to be sharing with you all for the next 50y.

@Dcpcooks Best field in the country.

Opening day

@assface_burner Is this from your HF guy?

@assface_burner Tell us - we might believe it. New ATH ?

@options_insight You said “Pull up fixed strike vol on the front of the curve”. Can this be done on tradingview or thinkorswim and if so, how? Ty

𝗟𝗲𝘁 𝗺𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝗽𝗲𝗮𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗽𝗼𝗶𝗻𝘁: 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗯𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗯𝘂𝘆 𝘀𝗶𝗴𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗶𝗻 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁𝘀 𝗶𝘀𝗻'𝘁 𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗿𝘁. When spot makes a new low and VIX refuses to make a new high, pay attention. That's a vol divergence. The options market is quietly telling you it doesn't believe the selloff has legs. But most traders miss it because they're staring at candlesticks. Here's how to read it properly. Pull up fixed strike vol on the front of the curve. If the market is selling off hard and fixed strike vol is flat or drifting lower, that's your tell. The people who price risk for a living are saying "we're not buying fresh protection here." Think about what that means. If vol can't rally when the market is getting destroyed, what happens when spot bounces even 1%? Vol gets annihilated. So the real trade here is selling the vol that can't go up. Different expression, completely different risk profile, and way better risk-reward than just buying the dip. When you learn to trade in more than just the spot dimension, you find edge in other areas like VEGA.

@edgaralandough And the $ you put in the Roth must remain there for at least 5Y before tax-free withdrawal … correct?

Things to watch out for: - If you have enough income to support this strategy since it's a significant deferral - Confirming your 401k plan supports it - Ideally, convert dollars immediately from optional after-tax to Roth since any gains would be taxable until they convert

One of my favorite loopholes in the US tax code: If a married couple earns more than $246K, they cannot contribute directly to a Roth IRA But, they can instead use their 401k to get $140K into their Roth IRA every single year Here's how the "mega backdoor Roth" works:

@assface_burner Cause they’ve been copying your trades 💰💰💰💰

@assface_burner What does your hedge fund guy say? I called mine but it goes to voicemail

March expiry bullish, bearish or who care-ish? Do we bounce afterwards? Market maker positions tell a clear story about what to expect through the rest of the month.. retweet this I'll tell you what the positions imply on today's TGIF call. (8:15am et - see you there)

@assface_burner Are you, in general, moving to options with greater time to expiry and away from 0-1 DTE?

@TheOneLanceB Have heard it said - it easier to predict where a bullet will be .2 sec after it has left the gun than 2 secs later

THE SHORTEST TIMEFRAMES HAVE THE MOST EDGE! This is a view I’ve mentioned before in interviews, but I’ve never taken the time to fully expand on. In general, you want to be an expected value maximalist (within risk constraints). And the shortest human timeframes offer that. Yes, I mostly do bigger picture trades now but that’s due to scalability and quality of life, not bc they offer the most edge. The paradox of markets is this: -The shortest timeframes often have the biggest dislocations (most “edge per minute”) -The longest timeframes often have the biggest tailwind (asset prices tend to rise over time) -The middle is where many traders get chopped up This principle is the reason why there were traders at Trillium that could be positive hundreds of days in a row. You’ll never see that with a swing trader or value investor. 1. Why short timeframes can have so much edge At very short horizons, markets can be temporarily inefficient because of: -forced behavior (stops, liquidations, margin pressure) -delayed human interpretation of information -mechanical flows around opens/closes -short-lived supply/demand vacuums Those create moments where price can be “wrong” for seconds/minutes relative to where it’s about to reprice. In fact, at the extreme short end of human discretionary trading like the two following examples, you can find opportunities that approach 100% win rate with a profit factor of 10+. Of course there is a trade-off which I’ll get into. 2. Order flow imbalances One of the biggest short-term edges is understanding order flow imbalance. Yes, these happen far less of the now than they used to as discussed in my interview yesterday with Serge. But they still exist particularly during times of market extremes. -aggressive buyers/sellers temporarily overwhelm passive liquidity -one-sided flow causes price to overshoot or stall -liquidity can disappear at key moments, then refill at new levels You’ll see this around: -opening auctions -panic flushes / squeezes -large fund rebalancing windows -crowded positioning unwinds This is where the tape can get dislocated from “fair” value in the short run and where active traders can extract edge. It is also why some of those hyperscalpers like @EdBarry4 are positive so many days in a row. 3. Breaking news is where discretionary human traders still have the edge over algos in interpreting novel headlines. There’s usually a sequence: -headline reaction -second-order interpretation -positioning unwind/chase -stabilization If you’re prepared and fast, these windows can be highly asymmetric. In fact, breaking news can offer some of the best opportunities in existence, especially when applied to liquid instruments (think April 2025 tariff headlines!). In fact, I’d argue tariff headlines due to their massive impact on global markets are some of the best expected value opportunities I’ve ever seen. 4. But there’s a tradeoff: liquidity + scalability The shorter the timeframe, the more your edge depends on: -execution speed -order optimization -fee minimization -slippage minimization So yes, edge can be highest in short windows but liquidity becomes the constraint. Many short-duration edges don’t scale without degrading returns. That is why many traders post eye-watering returns in small caps but then you constantly see them doing their dumb small account challenges. It’s because their strategies don’t scale! 5. Beware the middle ground. Take this thought experiment. Let’s say $AAPL flash crashes 90%. With near-certainty, Apple will bounce within minutes close back to the unaffected price. What happens overnight is more of a toss-up. What does the market do? Does news come out? Yet over the course of 5-10 years, it’s likely the $AAPL goes up. In that middle ground, you take on variance from overnight risk, headline risk, and market risk. But don’t benefit much from the fact that over years, markets go up. It’s much more of a coin flip whether we go up or down any given day. If I had to guess, the most edge is in tenths of seconds and seconds for humans. The least edge is in the window of weeks. Why not compete at even faster timeframes? Bc then you fight with HFT, commission structures, co-location, and more. 6. So how to apply this? First, this is useful for the sniff test. Understanding that there is a trade-off between edge and liquidity is critical! There is a reason why you see small cap traders that can scale a small account over 1,000% in a year (think early days of @theshortbear). There is also a reason why Warren Buffett has approached market returns. It’s that trade-off between edge and scale. Similar to the general trade-off between win-rate and profit factor, it’s a safe assumption that these often tend to move inverse to each other. It’s the reason why that if I managed $1B my returns would probably get quartered and if I managed $10B my returns would approach market returns or worse. This framework is also useful for finding the most edge and understanding your strategies. If you’re moving to a higher timeframe, you generally SHOULD expect more variance. That comes with the benefit of scalability. Similarly, if you want to study micro-inefficiencies, particularly in less efficient markets like crypto, you can find some insane edges there.

@VolSignals 1) Yes please re whiteboarding and 2) why # 3 & 4 thx

How do you use hedging data to trade? 1) Use charm to choose direction 2) Use gamma + charm to mark your target 3) Trade it w/ the right structure (butterfly) 4) Use 0DTE positions to know if you still have edge ..do I need to whiteboard it? Paid ~$4.10 ...$7.10 bid

@KrisAbdelmessih @EndsWellCapital Is this the book on Amzn from Oct, 2024 or is there a new version? ty

@EndsWellCapital It's out now

@assface_burner Ppl are sensitive. Imagine if a film biography of MLK was produced and MLKs character was faithfully portrayed by Jackie Chan

@Dcpcooks My wife worked for state govt in GA for a few years.She said staggering incompetence exhibited by ppl wanting to do the least amount of work possible.

So the reality is the state put a lien on the property for anticipated sales taxes on business that was closed a year ago. It’s truly Fing stupid that two lenders and three sets of attorneys didn’t read a title report until the week of closing. Partner had set up a payment plan to pay 20k of back due taxes that still had 6k outstanding but the state thought we were still in operation even though we didn’t renew our business lic. It’s surreal the level of incompetence is beyond understanding. I paid the back due sales tax and now we wait to see if the state will remove the lien before Friday or we need to come up with cash to close Please baby Jesus let this be the end of it

@davidonchainx Why not choose the savings account that pays 20% interest

How to escape the matrix (easy): - Make $600,000 - Put it in a savings account with 12% interest - Earn $72,000/year in passive income - Travel the world and enjoy life What's holding you back?

@Dcpcooks Is the purchaser going to reopen as a brewery ?

Long awaited but real We have a closing date set for the brewery and real estate Sadly it’s time to write some checks I’m really happy to just move on though