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🧵 Just dropped my Q2 - 2026 Market Outlook with the link in the comments for access. $SPY $SPX $VIX
Here's what I'm watching, what I got right in Q1, and why the next 6 months could be the most important of this cycle. Thread 👇
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PolycarpFX
11.2K posts
PolycarpFX
@PolycarpFX
Macro & Technical Markets : High-conviction analysis, scenario planning, edge through data + positioning. Not investment advice.
Salt Lake City, UT Tham gia Mayıs 2022
560 Đang theo dõi2.7K Người theo dõi
@LanceRoberts @jimiuorio Had my daughter and was making $11 an hour! The children are worth more than the money AND motivate you to make and achieve far more. They are a blessing.
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@jimiuorio It's a shame that she has all her facts wrong. I have 4 kids, had them when I could barely make ends meet. Wouldn't change a thing if I could do it over.
Bunker Hill Village, TX 🇺🇸 English
I don’t have words for this…
TheBlaze@theblaze
The View’s Sunny Hostin: “I think it’s really reckless to be suggesting that people should have children in this country.”
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PolycarpFX đã retweet
$SPY
given washout readings guessing bottom soon about 3% lower to 61x area which has the former ATH in confluence with the 38.2% retracement - expecting some sort of bounce and chop before the yearly low arrives which will likely manifest as an ABC down terminating in q3 - this will fulfill a mid term year cyclical bear price/time retracement to the ema800 (ema200 weekly) and set up the pre election year boom
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The $VIX ended last week at 31, its highest level since last April (tariff tantrum) and above 94% of historical readings.
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$UNH Catalyst upcoming before April 6th (That’s next Monday, so time to position is now). Can play this via shares, lotto calls, or $UNHG (2x ETF).
Take profit targets are 280, 291, and 310 on some blowout.
Most likely I will sell the initial move off the news if positive and lock profit or cut losses. I think it will move higher before the announcement so can scalp on the way up. (yes I moved the wedge down, that's what technicians do ☠️)
SVFI < 15 favors a strong bounce regardless
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🛢️ WTI crude oil has finally touched the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of March’s high–low range.
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$IHI - Med Device ETF
One of the few sectors that can align well as a trading vehicle in bear and bull environments.
Notice how in 2022 this reading was often a good buy spot for a bounce. The companies within include names such as $ABT and $MDT. We are also nearing the uptrend from the 2020 Covid Lows.
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Historically, some of the best risk‑reward in midterm years appears when buying in early November, where the first week has an excellent track record in past cycles, making it a natural window to get more aggressive once the technical and macro backdrop start to repair. $SPX $VIX
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$XLF watching Financials here, $FAS (3x ETF) might be a way to play a bounce
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Confident the 365 gap gets filled this week. I’ll likely buy lotto calls at open for that as minimum target, $MSFL should do well here, risk is a little lower near April 2025 low.
$MSFT forward returns when NDFI < 16 creates additional support for the thesis.
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👇Week Ahead Trade Plan - Under Pressure 🌎
Link for access in the comments
Includes
- 6 Trade Idea's with Targets 🎯 and Buy Levels
- Index Data and Short Term Outlook $SPY $QQQ
- A Few Longer Term Investment Idea's 💎
Here's a teaser 🧵
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$BRK.B With financials oversold and the forward returns data for Berkshire at these levels, $BRKU (BRK.B x2 ETF) could work well here on a bounce
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