Lance Roberts

Treasury Bond Yields Don't Lie This past weekend, @adamtaggart and I discussed the recent narrative "that wars push #interest #rates higher." The data doesn't really support that narrative. What drives rates is economic growth and inflation, and inflation expectations. We dig into the story. open.substack.com/pub/lancerober…

@HolyCow52943968 @michaellebowitz Lol. Rolling debt means that when one is paid off you immediately buy a similar maturity.

@LanceRoberts @michaellebowitz Most is rolled - not paid off. Foreigners have been selling debt denominated in dollars. The Fed and Treasury are the big buyers - which is why the Feds balance sheet is a reported 8 trillion but nobody really knows.

BREAKING: GOLD COLLAPSES AS ARAB GULF STATES SELL THEIR ASSETS TO RAISE MONEY Put differently, in this time of crisis, they are selling their gold in favor of US dollars.

@HolyCow52943968 @michaellebowitz Every time a bond matures, it is paid in full. That happens literally every single day.

@LanceRoberts @michaellebowitz If the debt was being paid off - we wouldn’t be 39 Trillion in debt and growing at historical pace

@WillieDelwiche You bet. I didn't know the original source. Thank you for letting me know.

@LanceRoberts I appreciate you sharing my work.

Bulls are slipping out the side door again. Over the past decade, every net gain in the S&P 500 came when the Investors' Intelligence bull-bear spread was above 20%. Today, that confidence is slipping. However, if the market is not in a full correction, current levels of bearishness mark short-term bottoms. IF we are in a larger correction, there is more work to do. h/t @ISABELNET_SA

3-18-26 Risk Management Rule #1:
Once You’ve Won… Quit Playing William Bernstein’s principle, “once you’ve won, quit playing,” is about protecting capital, not chasing more. Most investors give back gains by taking extra risk after success. When you’re up big, lock in profits, reduce exposure, and preserve what you’ve earned. You don’t have to exit completely, but you do need to shift from aggressive growth to disciplined risk management. If you like this video, please ❤️like and 🔁retweet

@Jtmon3y @michaellebowitz Gold settles is dollars....not yen.

@michaellebowitz Or Chinese yen. Why would they buy USD? Lol

@HolyCow52943968 @michaellebowitz That is completely false. When debt matures it is paid. That is why foreigners hold a record amount of treasuries.

@michaellebowitz Firmly in the “Things that make no sense” column. He we sit 39 TRILLION in debt - debt that will never be paid but for some reason people still want dollars. Crazy

3-19-26 The Fed Is STUCK… And It’s Worse Than You Think It’s not just about rates — it’s about uncertainty + second-order effects. Oil acts like a tax on consumers. They start spending less elsewhere. That hits earnings, growth, and markets. At the same time, oil can still keep inflation elevated. So you get a messy combo: slowing growth + sticky inflation = policy paralysis. With this uncertainty, the Fed has no clear path forward. For now, they are in wait-and-see mode, watching how conflicting forces (oil, inflation, growth) play out. If you like this video, please ❤️like and 🔁retweet

@kevinduffy1929 Yes...I will remfort that a bit later. I am doing an interview with Brian Duffy from Blackrock on AI.

@LanceRoberts Lance, could you show these graphs as a percentage of treasuries outstanding?

The numerous charlatans peddling gold by claiming the "death of fiat currencies" continue to ignore the data on rising global Treasury bond holdings ($USD reserves). We also own gold; it's an asset, but the data does not support the fear-mongering narratives trying to click and views.

This is not the end of the world... Catch Lance Roberts' latest Before the Bell Report:

@VictoriaViorela Correct....now run your chart from 2010 to present.

@LanceRoberts There are times to hold more gold and times to hold more equities. It is not cherry picking.

@VictoriaViorela As I said....I can cherry pick dates too...

@LanceRoberts Here is SPX Total Return this century: $SPX $NDQ $GLD

Correct... we are not hocking gold off onto unsuspecting investors making absurd claims about the death of currencies. It is part of some of our models that we manage for our clients. And cherry picking return periods is just as bad. Since the financial crisis, gold has underpeformed equities, just like it has underperformed since 1970. I can cherry pick dates too.

@LanceRoberts Correct, I take profits too. A core long position is warranted, but gold get overheated. However, gold has outperformed all equity markets, commodities, bonds and real estate since 2000. RIA do not even mention it!

First, you can value a currency by anything (stocks, bonds, real estate, etc.) all that tells you is that an asset has gone up in price versus and uninvested dollar. Secondly, we have been long gold in our portfolios for years, and are still that way. However, we also take profits and rebalance our exposures to avoid these types of capital destructions.

@LanceRoberts Gold is a long term hold. Charlatans is a strong word looking at this chart. Charlatans are those RIA that do not mention that gold has been the best asset since 2000, by far! $GLD

@priceactiontds Percentage change doesn't dictate sentiment and conditions.

@LanceRoberts DECENTLY OVERSOLD. Jesus Christ Bro. We are 6% below ATH and in the same range since 2025-09.

The S&P 500 is challenging support at the 200-DMA, which it has remained above for the past 214 days. The market is decently oversold, enough for buyers to defend support; however, the question is whether they can maintain it.

3-19-26 Will The Fed Backstop Exuberance Again? x.com/i/broadcasts/1…

Why are oil prices different depending on where they originate or are priced?