毛不是这样撸的
142 posts

毛不是这样撸的
@Pyarifari
专业枯坐,努力捕捉一个持着安心又有推背感的机会「一级研投助理」「二级交易员」「每日大赛点评师」【一站式提供web3工具服务】


If you wanna stop losing money in crypto, the first thing you should do is STOP day trading. Because RETAIL day trading is structurally a SCAM. This is a long post but if you just give me 120 seconds of your time, I swear you'll thank me in a few years. I’ve been trading since I was a teenager. I’ve had wins that made me feel I’m Batman and losses that genuinely broke pieces of me I’m still putting back together. I tried EVERY STRATEGY myself as retail could ever find. I even day traded for a year thinking it would finally save me, and I failed so painfully it still stings every time I remember it. > My PNL was so shit to the point that my grandma, who I HELPED set up an AUTO BUY on BTC for, made more money than me. > Then I became a low-frequency swing trader who barely touches positions, who GETS THE F OUT and STOPS TRADING for a while after a winning move. > ONLY THEN did my life get better and everything finally start to click. I’m not a saint. I’m writing this to save the younger, dumb, naive, and painfully impulsive version of me. First, as a RETAIL DAY TRADER, you’re trading high-frequency with zero real information advantage (no real order flow, no true liquidity map, no market maker positioning, no execution advantage, nothing). > Do it a few times each quarter, you survive. > Do it 10+ times a week? > Even if you have the strongest “discipline” and “risk management” skills in the world, the math will still burry you alive. Retails don’t fail because they (we) never win. We fail because we NEVER STOP, and high frequency only has one final outcome. RUIN. > This is literally why I built a punishment system for myself if I exceed my quarterly trade limit. > Every major loss I’ve ever taken happened after a big win where I kept going instead of stopping. > And every major win I’ve ever taken (and actually kept the money for a long time) was because I caught a big move and then CHILLED. > Pattern is so obvious it hurts. Winning is NOT you suddenly made big money. Winning is keeping that money and not fking losing it next year. > I’m seeing 14 year olds on TikTok calling themselves day traders, drawing lines on TradingView, thinking they unlocked some daily executable system after buying a guru’s course or Discord. > It sickens me because if they knew it was gambling I wouldn’t care. At least they’re aware of the game. > But this day trading meta is bigger than the dropshipping wave in 2016 and 2017. And we all know how that ended. > People underestimate the difficulty of trading and massively overestimate their ability. > The issue isn’t just the math. Yes the more you trade and the less you stop the harder consistent profitability becomes. > But the real problem is younger retail traders GENUINELY believe that with “discipline” and “risk management” they are not gambling at all. They think day trading is a "skill" you can execute like a daily routine. This isn’t just crypto day trading. The same logic applies to US equities and basically every market. High frequency only works inside institutions. > Take US equities for example. > Do you know what institution traders don’t even look at? Candlestick charts and TradingView. > They’re on Bloomberg terminals with data retail will never see. Well, you of course knows this. BUT the 14 to 18 year olds don’t know that. They think their indicators are what all traders use. And that’s the real danger. > If you know you’re gambling, at least a part of you knows when to walk away. > But once you believe it’s a “system”, you never stop. > You keep clicking until the market empties you completely. It really is just like a casino in disguise. > When you walk into Vegas or Macau, you know EXACTLY what you’re stepping into. > You see the lights, the tables, the dealers, the noise. Your brain knows this is gambling. > But day trading today is a casino disguised as a COFFEE SHOP. > New traders walk in thinking they’re here to “learn a skill”, not realizing they just sat down at a table designed to drain them slowly. So they don’t stop. That’s the whole tragedy. Not the losing. The fact that they genuinely believe they’re not gambling, which makes them keep going until there’s nothing left to lose. > And those retail traders (like me) you see who look like they’re “winning”… honestly most of them just caught a big move. > They had luck at the right moment, plus enough discipline beaten into them by previous losses that they finally learned how to stop after a win. And even then, this tiny group is less than one percent of all retail. It’s not hard to make money in trading. It’s just unbelievably hard to keep it.

看到@0xPickleCati 这篇 “日内高频交易是结构性诈骗”雄文, 也看到她在币安实盘上的交易收益曲线各数据, 基本符合她在文中所说的思维: “每个季度做几次交易,你就能挺过去。 每周做10次以上交易? ...高频只有一个最终结果。 毁灭” 但很多人关注我实盘的人,尤其在最近公开API之后, 知道我的交易订单应该是属于平均每周10条以上的, 那么跟她所说的思维是不是完全不同,甚至冲突呢? 表面上好像是,但如果你深入分析,会发现不尽然。 我们从盈亏曲线,和资金曲线上对比看: 图一图二,是两者盈亏曲线, 我把2023年这轮以来,两者的跃迁式盈利, 在曲线上标记1、2、3、4, 可以看到,两者在结构上非常相似, 尤其1-2-3,都显然是通过重仓做多同样的BTC主升浪 (2023年以来的前三个100天主升浪),来获得的。 而在其余时间,无论是PickleCati的“低频思维”, 还是我的“高频交易”下, 在盈亏曲线上都呈现一种“垃圾时间”的表现。 (细节上,哪怕图二上, 我在通过2获取大盈利后,在3到来之前, 捕捉到的震荡收益,也很快圣诞树对称式的回吐) 如果是完全不同的两种思维, (甚至可能交易标的都很不同) 为什么盈亏曲线会如此相似? 回答这个问题之前,再看一下图三图四,两者资金曲线, 图三中,PickleCati的资金曲线果真是如她所说, 做完1-2,先提币离开战场, 做完3,先提币离开战场, 做完4,先提币离开战场。 (后面还有一个小5是同样的,就不标记了) 而图四中,我的资金曲线上,除了2021~2022有提币过, 2022年2月之后,尤其是2023年后,从未提币或离开过战场, 从之前公开的Api数据也可以看到,1-2-3-4至今日, 期间基本都是“每周做10次以上”的高频订单成交。 回到上面的问题, 为什么一个人主张“日内高频是苦海无涯的坑” 另一个人几乎365天都在成交订单, 资金曲线也反映了这种不同, 也都是人工手动交易, 却表现出异曲同工的盈亏曲线? 答案关键在于,如何定义“一次交易”, 我的理解是: PickleCati说的一次交易“Do it one time”, 是一种重仓交易, 用游戏来类比,街霸中的重拳、技能, DOTA LOL 王者荣耀里的,四个技能,耗魔带冷却时间的那种。 她的合约账号风格是: 在战场外-等待观察机会-看到机会-充值入场-放技能-提币离开去战场外。 看图三,70%以上的时间里,她的账号资金处于极低水平位(战场外观察模式),而且你再深入细微看,越后面的这种低水平,还进一步肉眼可见地变更低。 (此处关联推文:x.com/coolish/status…) 而我虽然365天都在挂单、成交, 但近年来迭代成的合约账号风格是: 一直在战场内-猥琐轻拳/普通攻击打野、补刀兵线、骚扰敌方英雄-体感到机会-放技能-继续在战场内野区兵线猥琐 不知道看到这里,你能否体会两种不同的方式, 却表现出盈亏曲线上殊途同归的原因所在? 大部分人的高频交易,没有足够有意识去区分分配“普通攻击”和“放技能”, 试图通过一直放过大的技能,在实践: “自己其实也不知道,自己在追求客观数学层面,上限离谱的收益率”, 因为如果一直放大技能,都长期保持赢面,数学上就是在预期天文数字的输出结果。 玩过上述提到的游戏的人都知道,放技能的代价,就是露出破绽给敌人, 有些时候,不轻易放大技能,反而是一种核威慑。 而在交易,尤其是Crypto交易这种领域里, 因为人均普遍对单位时间内市场变化的感知过敏, 所以挺多人应该或多或少,或者潜意识里知道: 只要比“原本的自己”更“不轻易放大技能”, 其实也就是大家口中的所谓“耐心”, 就已经是一种优化自己相对于对手盘平均水平的竞争优势edge (关联推文:x.com/coolish/status…) 竞技体育中也是如此,大的动作,意味着大的前摇、后摇、大的体力消耗、身体不可控的硬直时间等等... 技能、大动作,应该留给,在长时间积累经验后去判断出的, 值得冒险的少部分时间窗、对手盘/市场露出破绽的时间窗, 我之前推文反复提到的BTC 100天周期,就是其中一种提醒自己和大家收放的辅助维度 (x.com/coolish/status…) 以上仅是针对,追求在市场起伏中获取超额收益思维方面的探讨。




祝贺 $PALU 上币安阿尔法!享币安人生! 币安人生的叙事,由 陈剑 @jason_chen998 引导,而后 由林晚晚的猫 @linwanwan823 被Cz回复而爆发,我作为曾经的榜一,作为社区回馈,给两位社区支持者,每人赠送8888个币安人生 然后我的朋友 @frankdegods 在国外社区的喊单人,卖飞太难受,也打8888个币安人生,希望大家都好起来! @brc20niubi 小二哥和冷静 @hexiecs 是自己人打就太内幕了 还有剩余的一些币,就全部送给@Flowersix__ 他帮忙在给社区几百个人发币安人生,也和我一样为社区做贡献 赠的不多,加起来也就几万U,但是聊表心意。 有朋友私我的没问题,持仓多了,要多散,社区更强大。 我大仓 4 , $GIGGLE ,让我们一起相信光,相信币安的力量!




方程式新闻的 00 后老板 Vida,刚刚分享了这个策略,即当前 Aster 平台为确定性的刷分矿场。 在不女巫、币价不崩、项目方不改 10 月 5 日截止刷量,发 4% 代币奖励规则的情况下,预计将有 2 倍以上的交易挖矿回报。 他补充道,为了这次刷量,大概为机器、Gas、交易磨损等投入了 70 万美金的成本。

📢 $UXLINK Community Voting Proposal is Live on Snapshot We are launching a Snapshot vote for the Phase 2 Swap & Compensation Plan (buy/deposit timestamp after Sep-22-2025 02:55 PM UTC). 🔹 1. Early Unlock (8%–12%) Community, Treasury & Team tokens unlocked according to the whitepaper ratio. Investor tokens remain on the original vesting schedule (no early unlock). All unlocked tokens will be deposited into a dedicated multisig wallet for Swap & Compensation. ⚠️ 8%–12% is an estimate; the final amount depends on reconciliation with exchanges & on-chain data. 🔹 2. Recovered Funds All recovered funds (from exchanges) + litigable Team & Treasury share will be used to compensate impacted users. Method: Buy back $UXLINK tokens and allocate them into the Swap & Compensation plans. 🔹 3. Additional Notes To protect existing holders and investors before the incident, Phase 2 will consider users’ average buy/deposit price (before CEXs suspended UXLINK or before illegal minting on Arbitrum) vs. the 7-day TWAP before Sep 22. Suspended & suspicious accounts/addresses will be excluded. 🙏 Your participation matters. Let’s work together to ensure fairness, transparency, and a stronger future for UXLINK. 👉 Vote here: snapshot.box/#/s:uxlinkcomm… #UXLINKDAO #Snapshot #Governance #Compensations












