

RetroPick Market
666 posts

@RetroPickMarket
Trade event outcomes, hedge real-world risk, and follow live market probabilities across crypto, macro, tech, and weather. https://t.co/B4dFMylBVs






















🚨 THIS LOOKS WORSE THAN THE GREAT DEPRESSION. US stock valuations, market concentration, and leverage are now above 1929 levels. Most people think 1929 was the biggest stock market bubble in history. But today’s numbers are now even higher. In 1929, the Shiller CAPE ratio peaked around 32. Today it is around 42. The Buffett Indicator was around 95% before the 1929 crash. Today it is around 220-230%, the highest level ever recorded. The top 10 US stocks controlled roughly 25% of the market in 1929. Today the top 10 stocks control around 40% of the S&P 500. A small group of AI and tech companies is now driving almost the entire market. In 1929, investors used heavy margin debt to buy stocks. Today, leverage moved into: • Hedge funds • Options • Private credit • Leveraged ETFs • Derivatives Back then, investors were chasing Radio, Automobiles and Electricity. Today investors are chasing AI, Semiconductors, Data centers, and Cloud infrastructure. And there's something even worse. The 1929 bubble was mostly concentrated inside the US, while today it's global money. This means the story has changed but the behavior hasn't. And the result won't be any different.





