Spaceweasel

3.7K posts

Spaceweasel

Spaceweasel

@Spacew3asel

Spaaace Tham gia Şubat 2024
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Spaceweasel
Spaceweasel@Spacew3asel·
Much more systemic thinking, the underlying has an undeniable smell of plan trusting, but at least the rationalizations don't glorify anti-intellectualism and magical thinking. There may however be a selection bias in the comment section of this article, I have read extremely low brow MAGA boomer style bloviating in mass media Russian comment sections.
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Spaceweasel
Spaceweasel@Spacew3asel·
It's actually not surprising at all that the F-35s would get losses, especially Israeli ones where pilots are younger, more cocky and far less experienced (not necessarily at piloting, they are good pilots, but they are more specialized and less educated than pilots to the NATO standard). It's a shock to the same armchair warriors that expected every new high tech weapon on the Ukraine front to flip the war, it's an internet catastrophe for projected izzat but it *is* a nothingburgher militarily, combat creates increased losses and nobody really cares wether those losses are from hostile action or not, people dying and hardware being destroyed in wars is absolutely no surprise, simply flying all those sorties would already have destroyed multiple airframe lifetimes even if there had been zero accident and zero combat loss, just from flight hour accumulation.
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Teortaxes▶️ (DeepSeek 推特🐋铁粉 2023 – ∞)
Yes, that is so. Because American enemies are WEAK. Consider the Index of Economic Complexity. The US is #20. Iran is #87. Venezuela is #133 (of 145). If those desperate shitholes can so much as *scratch* top-of-the-line American assets… it's a proof of concept. China is #10.
Teortaxes▶️ (DeepSeek 推特🐋铁粉 2023 – ∞) tweet media
Voödoo 6 von Inyanga@6Voodoo

Anyone arguing that minor damage to a US aircraft, sustained while lollygagging over hostile airspace is an epoch altering event is arguing the US military is so strong that the mere damaging of one of its weapons is a great feat.

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Spaceweasel
Spaceweasel@Spacew3asel·
You do realize the LFI far left party got a record increase in support in the last municipal elections (first round was last Sunday). The media went into a full assault on them with the exact same playbook as they had been using against the far right before, expressly because of their position on the middle east, and that very assault gave them a big boost. Can they win presidential elections, maybe, probably not, they carry a lot of "cultural" new left baggage that does make them repulsive to a majority, the point is that their internal policies didn't suddenly get more popular, they are a coalition of very stable clusters with low potential for growth, so the new voters are coming for foreign policy reasons. The massive jewish organisation is both a strength and a vulnerability, it's not really well hidden and the "West" and "judeo-christian" cover stories aren't that robust, what allows it to function is the massive tabu on antisemitism inherited from WW2 propaganda. But that tabu is generational, all the polls show very clearly that it will, if not disappear, become a lot less potent in the population with the pillow taking its due in the boomer population. My point is not that the current few political parties that currently profit from their anti-zionist foreign policy are going to win, my point is that the foreign policy positions of the parties that do win are going to trend away from the unconditional support that currently exists, because the population that has a reflective disgust reaction whenever someone says anything bad about jews is dying.
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Teortaxes▶️ (DeepSeek 推特🐋铁粉 2023 – ∞)
There is no chance of the development of any proactive anti-Israeli (to say nothing of anti-Jewish) agency in the US or broadly in the West. Even the most insufferable Israeli behavior will be met with handwringing and at most non-enforced sanctions on settlers. Cattle is cattle.
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Teortaxes▶️ (DeepSeek 推特🐋铁粉 2023 – ∞)
Ok enough sarcasm. Let me put this in simple enough terms. Israel has ORGANIZATION. All these lobbyists, espionage, and grassroots Jewish sympathy. It can act PROACTIVELY. Anti-Israelis in the US are headless cattle that can only moo disapprovingly. So: Israel is Safe Forever.
Gulagthiswaay@gulagthiswaay

@teortaxesTex @numanderki @ripplebrain Israels economy is tied together by american assurance and security/military backup and economic aid/investment. From Bds to political isolation everything depends on americans. Not so ideal plan long-term and not to mention even policy like QME to keep them ahead won't last ♾️

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Spaceweasel
Spaceweasel@Spacew3asel·
Which is why someone has to eventually stand up and act as if it didn't matter. Whether the Iranian government survives or not, Iran has shown that escalation dominance is a deterrent but not a free buffet, as far as humanity is concerned it **is** a multi turn game, and as far as Iranians are concerned, they will in their majority survive anyway because they are 90M of them, so they are stakeholders in the next turn. Best case scenario Iran wins, which means survival + the US massively reducing their footprint in the middle east, worst case scenario the government falls, in either case they will have done much damage, making future aggression less likely. Not to mention the reputational damage to USrael likely to persist for multiple decades, and yes that actually matters, it doesn't matter immediately but governments do tend towards the expressed preferences of their population, it's just that there is both lag and hysteresis.
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Teortaxes▶️ (DeepSeek 推特🐋铁粉 2023 – ∞)
Very funny. very noble. you can just kill nuclear scientists, engineers, destroy centrifuges, plunge the whole nation into chaos, nuke its cities etc. etc. Israel has total escalation dominance because it's not restrained by anything sans physics. Iran won't ever have a nuke.
Ryan Rozbiani@RyanRozbiani

JUST 🇮🇷🇺🇸: IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi says Iran's Nuclear program Will Never be Destroyed “You cannot unlearn what you've learned. Iran has the most sophisticated, fast and efficient machine that exists. They know how to make that.”

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Spaceweasel
Spaceweasel@Spacew3asel·
I'm literally sitting on a petroleum field right now, we explored it some 20 years ago and decided it was'nt worth it unless oil was 250$ a barrel... Well well well. Not sure it's enough to heat central europe tho, and like the nuclear power plants, we can't build that fast even if Macron nukes NIMBY from orbit.
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Angelica 🌐⚛️🇹🇼🇨🇳🇺🇸
Russia has spent billions and billions of dollars building ghost pipelines to serve the Japan and SK markets. They are still incomplete but it would be barely an inconvenience to finish them up. I assume they would want to sign nice long contracts and the Asian counterparties would be relieved not to be dependent on Middle East for energy. Bad news for Europe if all this goes down…their gas at preferential prices might never come back.
Reuters@Reuters

South Korea considers importing Russian oil, naphtha, Industry Ministry says reut.rs/3NNpXVo reut.rs/3NNpXVo

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Spaceweasel
Spaceweasel@Spacew3asel·
@RokoMijic It already happened, that was yesterday. 70 years of gnawing at our livers in fear of nuclear MAD when energy MAD was looking at us angrily from the Persian gulf...
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Roko 🐉
Roko 🐉@RokoMijic·
Increasingly getting WWIII vibes Hopefully I am wrong
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Spaceweasel
Spaceweasel@Spacew3asel·
I like the fact that there is a "document" level address encoding, it's going to be extremely useful to eventually train provenence security, not just for prompt injection safety but more generally for better epistemics. I do wonder at wether it's that different from RLM in results or if it's an engineering tradeoff where you use more compute on embedding and less compute on higher level reasoning capabilities.
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Teortaxes▶️ (DeepSeek 推特🐋铁粉 2023 – ∞)
So it's basically a two-tier LLM that represents the set of "documents" as a sequence with positional encodings too? On priors, I like this more than RLM.
Teortaxes▶️ (DeepSeek 推特🐋铁粉 2023 – ∞) tweet media
艾略特@elliotchen100

论文来了。名字叫 MSA,Memory Sparse Attention。 一句话说清楚它是什么: 让大模型原生拥有超长记忆。不是外挂检索,不是暴力扩窗口,而是把「记忆」直接长进了注意力机制里,端到端训练。 过去的方案为什么不行? RAG 的本质是「开卷考试」。模型自己不记东西,全靠现场翻笔记。翻得准不准要看检索质量,翻得快不快要看数据量。一旦信息分散在几十份文档里、需要跨文档推理,就抓瞎了。 线性注意力和 KV 缓存的本质是「压缩记忆」。记是记了,但越压越糊,长了就丢。 MSA 的思路完全不同: → 不压缩,不外挂,而是让模型学会「挑重点看」 核心是一种可扩展的稀疏注意力架构,复杂度是线性的。记忆量翻 10 倍,计算成本不会指数爆炸。 → 模型知道「这段记忆来自哪、什么时候的」 用了一种叫 document-wise RoPE 的位置编码,让模型天然理解文档边界和时间顺序。 → 碎片化的信息也能串起来推理 Memory Interleaving 机制,让模型能在散落各处的记忆片段之间做多跳推理。不是只找到一条相关记录,而是把线索串成链。 结果呢? · 从 16K 扩到 1 亿 token,精度衰减不到 9% · 4B 参数的 MSA 模型,在长上下文 benchmark 上打赢 235B 级别的顶级 RAG 系统 · 2 张 A800 就能跑 1 亿 token 推理。这不是实验室专属,这是创业公司买得起的成本。 说白了,以前的大模型是一个极度聪明但只有金鱼记忆的天才。MSA 想做的事情是,让它真正「记住」。 我们放 github 上了,算法的同学不容易,可以点颗星星支持一下。🌟👀🙏 github.com/EverMind-AI/MSA

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Spaceweasel
Spaceweasel@Spacew3asel·
It's the marginal effects, every single farm that is barely able to pay for itself just became deeply unprofitable, every factory with low margins, every airline, etc... Some price elasticity will correct, obviously, but the aggregate effect will be a global reduction of the quality of life by a significant amount. Yes, moderatly wealthy countries can absolutly take that hit, ( except that a lot of Europe already took it once and burned that margin ) but in poorer countries 10 to 15% reduction in QOL can be the difference between subsistance and death of famine. It's not the end of the world as we know it, I can be 20% poorer and be ok, and many more can than they believe, but it's definitly not a nothingburgher either.
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Mr. S.T.A.R.
Mr. S.T.A.R.@favelaoverlord·
I think people are being hysterical talking about global impoverishment and perpetual depressions. We’re practically talking about returning to 2007 levels of global oil consumption here, guys.
Mr. S.T.A.R. tweet media
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Spaceweasel
Spaceweasel@Spacew3asel·
@favelaoverlord That was the end result regardless, but now instead of Chinese century lifts all boats, we got Chinese century eventually lifts the few boats that did'nt sink...
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Mr. S.T.A.R.
Mr. S.T.A.R.@favelaoverlord·
In the short term without imminent resolution this war means significant supply disruptions in oil, plastics (methanol), food (~6 mos), and seemingly semicons and many other industrial inputs (hydrogen, sulfur). In the long term, the end result seems to be Chinese century.
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Spaceweasel
Spaceweasel@Spacew3asel·
@AngelicaOung > because people will substitute and push up demand of coal when gas supply is down. And now, finally, 50 years later, people may understand why we mix in Plutonium instead of enriching Uranium on our reactors.
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Spaceweasel
Spaceweasel@Spacew3asel·
Yeah, hydrogen is the worst possible shit to store, giving away free protons all around, hydrofluoric acid is actually less of a nightmare... Glass works, I assume the internal surface of those tanks is glazed, but seals are probably sacrificial components, which isn't a big issue on the replaceable tank side. What I'd do is put all the high maintenance sacrificial stuff on the tank side and have the simplest possible system on the car side. I really don't like hydrogen, I do like physically swappable energy storage a lot better than rechargeable energy storage on the other hand.
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Teortaxes▶️ (DeepSeek 推特🐋铁粉 2023 – ∞)
@Spacew3asel it is a clever hack though I doubt these seals, hydrogen is a very annoying substrance but yes, it could make sense. You can have one refueling station every, say, 400 km, and distribute the refilled tanks to local spots, parasitizing on the normal (or electric) delivery
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Spaceweasel
Spaceweasel@Spacew3asel·
The oil shock will. If the damage is as bad as it looks, I expect the following. China: will be fine. France, Russia, USA, Norway: poor but tolerable, 1960's levels of comfort isn't great but it's not horrible either. Southern Europe: current north Africa levels of shitholeism, it's not -that- bad either. Central Europe: cold wasteland. Rest of the world: famine. I'll be less black pilled tomorrow, maybe, but I do think we just missed our chance to go from here to fully automated luxury communism with Chinese characteristics without going through bad times on the way. A limited nuclear exchange seems like a lost opportunity now, oil production going down by a third for years is much worse, it's just not as instantaneous.
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Spaceweasel
Spaceweasel@Spacew3asel·
Cold and hunger have a way to make people smarter. Macron is a flip flopping weirdo, but he's still a player and not an ideological zombie, there is no way he doesn't jump on the occasion. Of course he would need to stay in power to do so, but he got his excuse now, I don't think people realize how much oil infrastructure being destroyed changes everything, the Hormuz doesn't matter anymore if production is gone, and those plants don't get rebuilt in months even if China sent all it's surplus civil engineering to the Gulf. Oil going up significantly means lots of land that is productive now ceases to be, agriculture follows fast, and of course logistics are directly on the blast path, destroying Iranian production facilities probably kills two orders of magnitude more people than nuking an Iranian city, except it's worldwide. And while I do hope Iran's threat to retaliate on gulf infrastructure is a last warning, I doubt it is and if it is I doubt it will be heard, so I don't rate the survival of those very high. We are highly entering an energy crisis of major proportions, I don't think the degrowthers are going to be very popular, degrowth is romantic when it's about washing your hair with artisanal soap, it's a lot less romantic when it's about burning old car tires for heat.
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umumu
umumu@umi33563·
@Spacew3asel @teortaxesTex @GlennLuk >I guess we building nuclear power plants again. Wanna bet? (although, you guys might, but I do not assume competence and common sense in Europe in general)
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Soda
Soda@fredsoda·
i don’t think the consequences of the Iran have fully sunk into us mentally within the US don’t think people understand there is virtually no way back to a pre-Iran status quo and the lifestyle that came with it
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Spaceweasel
Spaceweasel@Spacew3asel·
@LindseyGrahamSC @POTUS Containing ? Why contain when the obvious solution is actually to encourage Iran to get nukes and ICBMs reaching for the USA ? Please, do shut down NATO, there will be people sad about it in Europe for sure but making *those* sad is a big part of why it would be great !
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Lindsey Graham
Lindsey Graham@LindseyGrahamSC·
Just spoke to @POTUS about our European allies’ unwillingness to provide assets to keep the Strait of Hormuz functioning, which benefits Europe far more than America. I have never heard him so angry in my life. I share that anger given what’s at stake. The arrogance of our allies to suggest that Iran with a nuclear weapon is of little concern and that military action to stop the ayatollah from acquiring a nuclear bomb is our problem not theirs is beyond offensive. The European approach to containing the ayatollah’s nuclear ambitions have proven to be a miserable failure. The repercussions of providing little assistance to keep the Strait of Hormuz functioning are going to be wide and deep for Europe and America. I consider myself very forward-leaning on supporting alliances, however at a time of real testing like this, it makes me second guess the value of these alliances. I am certain I am not the only senator who feels this way.
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Spaceweasel
Spaceweasel@Spacew3asel·
Of course it is, the only reason it won't is the USrael empire, since that's going down the drain fast, trafic will reopen. Both gulf arabs and Iranians want to sell, the rest of the world wants to buy, whoever controls the straight can just sell access, everyone will pay and that will by nature create stability.
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Spaceweasel
Spaceweasel@Spacew3asel·
If the destruction of Israel and the final fall of the US empire of crusader liberalism is the cost, can I have a lot more of that cost please ? Iran and the Gulf arabs both want to sell oil, we want to buy oil, it does'nt require a rocket surgeon to see that there are obvious win/win deals to be made once the region is finally rid of constant US intervention.
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Veronika Grimm
Veronika Grimm@GrimmVeronika·
I fear that Europeans don‘t get what is at stake. Failure of US/Israel in the middle east is of MUCH higher cost to us in Europe than to almost anyone else. (This holds independently of what one thinks about the escalation - it is already there)
Lindsey Graham@LindseyGrahamSC

Just spoke to @POTUS about our European allies’ unwillingness to provide assets to keep the Strait of Hormuz functioning, which benefits Europe far more than America. I have never heard him so angry in my life. I share that anger given what’s at stake. The arrogance of our allies to suggest that Iran with a nuclear weapon is of little concern and that military action to stop the ayatollah from acquiring a nuclear bomb is our problem not theirs is beyond offensive. The European approach to containing the ayatollah’s nuclear ambitions have proven to be a miserable failure. The repercussions of providing little assistance to keep the Strait of Hormuz functioning are going to be wide and deep for Europe and America. I consider myself very forward-leaning on supporting alliances, however at a time of real testing like this, it makes me second guess the value of these alliances. I am certain I am not the only senator who feels this way.

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