@kylejhutton @CDNprojections im also thinking AB's exercise will be the same (lose at scc)
English
CanadianWatcher
8.5K posts
CanadianWatcher
@TheCDNWatch
I talk about Canada & other things I'm interested in.
The Maze Tham gia Haziran 2018
124 Đang theo dõi215 Người theo dõi
@kylejhutton @CDNprojections fyi I googled it since it wasn't on wikipedia (under qc election) and they are trying to make some frankenstein map where they combine both proposals and add 2 seats... dk what the result will be since they lost at SCC already
English
Just realized I'm going to have to do this with Quebec's new provincial boundaries, our largest provincial legislature!!!
Canada Projections🇨🇦@CDNprojections
Why does it take longer to make a new YAPms map than to make a full electoral model
English
CanadianWatcher đã retweet
📊Alberta separation poll from the Angus Reid Institute:
🔴67% Stay
🔵30% Leave
The debate over AB separation is not taking place between conservatives and progressives, it's occurring within Alberta's conservative movement itself. → 338canada.ca/p/alberta-refe…
English
CanadianWatcher đã retweet
📊Federal 🇨🇦 voting intentions from Research Co.:
🔴LPC 46%
🔵CPC 31%
🟠NDP 11%
⚜️BQ 7% (27% in QC)
🟢GPC 3%
🟣PPC 1%
→ 338canada.com/20260507-res.h…
[Research Co., May 6-8, 2026, n=1,003]
#canpoli
English
CanadianWatcher đã retweet
NEW from Abacus Data: One year after the federal election, the opinion environment remains very positive for the Carney Liberals.
• Government approval hits a new high: 57%
• Liberals lead Conservatives by 10
• Carney net impression: +26
• 55% say his government is a genuine break from Trudeau years
Read more: abacusdata.ca/canadian-polit…
English
CanadianWatcher đã retweet
New Abacus Data poll
🔴LPC: 46% (+1%)
🔵CPC: 36% (-)
🟠NDP: 8% (-)
🔷BQ: 6% (-1%)
🟢GPC: 3% (+1%)
⚪OTH/PPC: 1% (-)
(+/- change from last Abacus poll)
English
CanadianWatcher đã retweet
Polling Canada Federal Model Update:
🔴 LPC: 218 (+49)
🔵 CPC: 100 (-44)
⚜️ BQ: 19 (-3)
🟠 NDP: 5 (-2)
🟢 GPC: 1 (-)
(Seat Changes With 2025 Federal Election)
- May 9, 2026 -
Full model article here: open.substack.com/pub/canadianpo…
English
CanadianWatcher đã retweet
Those Who Say They Would Vote For:
Canada:
LPC: 60%
CPC: 49%
NDP: 30%
Quebec:
LPC: 61%
CPC: 33%
NDP: 16%
Ontario:
LPC: 64%
CPC: 52%
NDP: 36%
British Columbia:
LPC: 61%
CPC: 47%
NDP: 40%
Abacus / May 6, 2026
English
CanadianWatcher đã retweet
338Canada🍁federal update | May 10, 2026
🔴LPC 221
----------------majority : 172 seats
🔵CPC 94
⚜️BQ 20
🟠NDP 6
🟢GPC 2
Details here ↓ 338canada.ca/p/338-sunday-u…
English
CanadianWatcher đã retweet
Nova Scotia Electoral Model Update - May 6, 2026
cdnprojections.ca/NS
🟦39 (-4)
🟧14 (+5)
🟥2 (=)
⬛1 (=)
PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY
(Change from the 2024 Election)
English
CanadianWatcher đã retweet
Latest Liaison Strategies Quebec poll modeled out
⚜️PQ: 76 seats (+73)
🔴PLQ: 46 seats (+25)
⚫PCQ: 3 seats (+3)
🔵CAQ: 0 seats (-90)
🟠QS: 0 seats (-11)
(+/- change from last election)
⚜️Parti Quebecois Majority Government
Feel free to ask for any ridings/circonscriptions
Charestiste🇨🇦🍁@RealAlbanianPat
New Quebec Liaison Poll/Nouveau sondage Liaison au Québec ⚜️PQ: 32% (+17%) 🔴PLQ: 32% (+18%) 🔵CAQ: 16% (-25%) ⚫PCQ: 11% (-2%) 🟠QS: 7% (-8%) ⚪AUT: 2% (-) (+/- change from last Quebec General Election)/ (+/- variation par rapport au dernier EG)
English
CanadianWatcher đã retweet
British Columbia - Provincial Polling:
CPBC: 46%
NDP: 36%
GPBC: 13%
Angus Reid / April 28, 2026 / n=804
Check out - 338canada.com
English
CanadianWatcher đã retweet
New Quebec Liaison Poll/Nouveau sondage Liaison au Québec
⚜️PQ: 32% (+17%)
🔴PLQ: 32% (+18%)
🔵CAQ: 16% (-25%)
⚫PCQ: 11% (-2%)
🟠QS: 7% (-8%)
⚪AUT: 2% (-)
(+/- change from last Quebec General Election)/
(+/- variation par rapport au dernier EG)
Français
CanadianWatcher đã retweet
📊Federal 🇨🇦 voting intentions from Nanos Research:
🔴LPC 45%
🔵CPC 32%
🟠NDP 11%
⚜️BQ 6%
🟢GPC 3%
🟣PPC 1%
→ 338canada.com/20260501-nan.h…
[Nanos Research, April 10-May 1, 2026, n=1,027]
#canpoli
HT
CanadianWatcher đã retweet
📊B.C. provincial voting intentions from the Angus Reid Institute:
🔵CPBC 46%
🟠NDP 36%
🟢GPBC 13%
→ 338canada.com/bc/20260426-an…
[Angus Reid Institute, April 24-28, 2026, n=804]
#BCpoli
English
CanadianWatcher đã retweet
📊Federal 🇨🇦 voting intentions from Liaison Strategies:
🔴LPC 45%
🔵CPC 33%
🟠NDP 9%
⚜️BQ 6% (26% in QC)
🟢GPC 2%
🟣PPC 2%
→ 338canada.com/20260426-lia.h…
[Liaison Strategies, April 20-May 2, 2026, n=1,000]
#canpoli
English
CanadianWatcher đã retweet
📊Latest 🇨🇦 federal polls from active firms in past 30 days:
🔴LPC +7, Angus Reid Institute
🔴LPC +9, Abacus Data
🔴LPC +11, Léger
🔴LPC +11, Liaison Strategies
🔴LPC +12, Ipsos
🔴LPC +13, Nanos Research
🔴LPC +14, EKOS
338canada.ca/p/338-sunday-u…
HT
CanadianWatcher đã retweet
Ontario - Provincial Polling:
PC: 39%
LIB: 29%
NDP: 20%
GRN: 7%
Others: 5%
Campaign / May 1, 2026
Check out - 338canada.com
English
CanadianWatcher đã retweet
338Canada🍁federal update | May 3, 2026
Details here → 338canada.com/federal.htm
Find your riding here → 338canada.com/districts.htm
English
CanadianWatcher đã retweet
Latest Leger Poll modelled out
🔴LIB: 220 seats (+51)
🔵CON: 104 seats (-40)
⚜️BQ: 19 seats (-3)
🟠NDP: 0 seats (-7)
🟢GRN: 0 seats (-1)
🔴Liberal Majority Government
(+/- change from 2025 election)
Charestiste🇨🇦🍁@RealAlbanianPat
New Leger poll 🔴LPC: 48% (-) 🔵CPC: 37% (+3%) 🟠NDP: 6% (-) 🔷BQ: 6% (-1%) 🟢GPC: 2% (-1%) ⚪OTH/PPC: 1% (-) (+/- change from last Leger poll)
English